October 19, 2020 Backgrounder on the Business Outlook Survey question on wage growth Starting with the 2020 autumn survey, the results from a question on labour cost growth are being included in the Business Outlook Survey. This document describes the question and presents the correlations between the responses and various measures of wages and employment. Content Type(s): Background materials
Child Skill Production: Accounting for Parental and Market-Based Time and Goods Investments Staff working paper 2020-36 Elizabeth Caucutt, Lance Lochner, Joseph Mullins, Youngmin Park Can daycare replace parents’ time spent with children? We explore this by using data on how parents spend time and money on children and how this spending is related to their child’s development. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D13, H, H3, H31, J, J2, J22, J24 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Redemption Runs in Canadian Corporate Bond Funds? Staff analytical note 2018-21 Rohan Arora Mutual funds employ a host of tools to manage redemption run risk. However, our results suggest that Canadian corporate bond funds may be vulnerable to redemption runs, especially when they are less liquid and when market volatility is high. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
Estimating the Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Total Exports Staff working paper 2019-17 Thierry Mayer, Walter Steingress This paper shows that real effective exchange rate (REER) regressions, the standard approach for estimating the response of aggregate exports to exchange rate changes, imply biased estimates of the underlying elasticities. We provide a new aggregate regression specification that is consistent with bilateral trade flows micro-founded by the gravity equation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F12, F3, F31, F32 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Should Banks Be Worried About Dividend Restrictions? Staff working paper 2023-49 Josef Schroth A regulator would want to restrict dividends to force banks to rebuild capital during a crisis. But such a policy is not time-consistent. A time-consistent policy would let banks gradually rebuild capital and pay dividends even when their equity remains below pre-crisis levels. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E3, E32, E4, E44 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight
December 21, 2008 Financial System Review - December 2008 The turmoil in global financial markets entered a new phase in September, moving to a more acute and broad-based loss of confidence in the context of a series of failures and near-failures of large financial institutions in the United States and Europe.FSR Highlights - December 2008 Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
November 16, 2017 Factors Behind the 2014 Oil Price Decline Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2017 Reinhard Ellwanger, Benjamin Sawatzky, Konrad Zmitrowicz Oil prices have declined sharply over the past three years. While both supply and demand factors played a role in the large oil price decline of 2014, global supply growth seems to have been the predominant force. The most important drivers were likely the surprising growth of US shale oil production, the output decisions of the Organization of the Petro-leum Exporting Countries and the weaker-than-expected global growth that followed the 2009 global financial crisis. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): Q, Q4, Q41, Q43
Opaque Assets and Rollover Risk Staff working paper 2016-17 Benjamin Nelson, Toni Ahnert We model the asset-opacity choice of an intermediary subject to rollover risk in wholesale funding markets. Greater opacity means investors form more dispersed beliefs about an intermediary’s profitability. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
Understanding the Systemic Implications of Climate Transition Risk: Applying a Framework Using Canadian Financial System Data Staff discussion paper 2023-32 Gabriel Bruneau, Javier Ojea Ferreiro, Andrew Plummer, Marie-Christine Tremblay, Aidan Witts Our study aims to gain insight on financial stability and climate transition risk. We develop a methodological framework that captures the direct effects of a stressful climate transition shock as well as the indirect—or systemic—implications of these direct effects. We apply this framework using data from the Canadian financial system. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, G, G0, G01, G1, G10, G2, G20, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Structural challenges, Climate change
Price-Level Dispersion versus Inflation-Rate Dispersion: Evidence from Three Countries Staff working paper 2017-3 David Fielding, Christopher Hajzler, James (Jim) C. MacGee Inflation can affect both the dispersion of commodity-specific price levels across locations (relative price variability, RPV) and the dispersion of inflation rates (relative inflation variability, RIV). Some menu-cost models and models of consumer search suggest that the RIV-inflation relationship could differ from the RPV-inflation relationship. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E50 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting