Uncertainty, Inflation, and Welfare Staff Working Paper 2008-13 Jonathan Chiu, Miguel Molico This paper studies the welfare costs and the redistributive effects of inflation in the presence of idiosyncratic liquidity risk, in a micro-founded search-theoretical monetary model. We calibrate the model to match the empirical aggregate money demand and the distribution of money holdings across households, and study the effects of inflation under the implied degree of market incompleteness. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E5, E50
Drivers of Weak Wage Growth in Advanced Economies Staff Analytical Note 2019-3 Anne-Katherine Cormier, Michael Francis, Kristina Hess, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle Since the global financial crisis, advanced-economy wage growth has been generally low relative to past recoveries, especially after accounting for the evolution of labour market conditions over this period. This paper investigates a variety of potential explanations for this weakness, drawing on findings from the literature as well as analysis of recent labour market data in advanced economies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): International topics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, F, F0, J, J3
Monetary Policy, Trends in Real Interest Rates and Depressed Demand Staff Working Paper 2021-27 Paul Beaudry, Césaire Meh Over the last few decades, real interest rates have trended downward. The most common explanation is that this reflects depressed demand due to demographic, technological and other real factors. We explore the claim that these trends may have been amplified by certain features of monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Debt management, Economic models, Fiscal policy, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E4, E43, E44, E5, E52, E6, E62, E63, H, H3, H6, H63
A Structural VAR Approach to Core Inflation in Canada Staff Discussion Paper 2008-10 Sylvain Martel The author constructs a measure of core inflation using a structural vector autoregression containing oil-price growth, output growth, and inflation. This "macro-founded" measure of inflation forecasts total inflation at least as well as other, atheoretical measures. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E31
Central Bank Digital Currency and Monetary Policy Staff Working Paper 2018-36 Mohammad Davoodalhosseini Many central banks are contemplating whether to issue central bank digital currency. This piece explores the implications as well as potential motivators of such a step. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E50
The Role of Public Money in the Digital Age Staff Discussion Paper 2024-11 Francisco Rivadeneyra, Scott Hendry, Alejandro García A well-functioning monetary system is characterized by public and private forms of money that exchange at par as value flows freely between them. A relevant retail public money—whether in the form of cash, a central bank digital currency or both—is a necessary component of such a monetary system. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E50, E58
Tariffs and the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Twitter Staff Working Paper 2021-36 Dmitry Matveev, Francisco Ruge-Murcia Do tariffs affect exchange rates? We look at President Trump’s tweets during talks on the North American Free Trade Agreement and find that anticipation of higher tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico led to an appreciation of the US dollar relative to Canadian and Mexican currency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, F3, F31
The Global Effects of U.S. Fiscal Policy Staff Discussion Paper 2008-8 Kimberly Beaton The author examines the global impact of U.S. fiscal policy using the Bank of Canada's Global Economy Model (Lalonde and Muir 2007). In particular, she examines the global macroeconomic implications of the expiration of major tax cuts in the United States and of expected increases in U.S. entitlement program expenditures. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Fiscal policy, International topics, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): H, H0, H2, H3
June 21, 2008 A Model of Tiered Settlement Networks Financial System Review - June 2008 James Chapman, Jonathan Chiu, Miguel Molico Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
The Commodity-Price Cycle and Regional Economic Performance in Canada Staff Working Paper 1996-12 Mario Lefebvre, Stephen S. Poloz This paper attempts to provide one interpretation of the broad regional economic history of Canada since the early 1970s. As the title of the paper suggests, we believe that, to a significant degree, regional diversity in economic performance reflects movements in Canada's terms of trade, which very frequently are tied to developments in world commodity markets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32