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2126 Results

Comparison of Bayesian and Sample Theory Parametric and Semiparametric Binary Response Models

We use graphic processing unit computing to compare Bayesian and sample theory semiparametric binary response models. Our findings show that optimal bandwidth does not outperform regular bandwidth in binary semiparametric models.

Extreme Weather and Low-Income Household Finance: Evidence from Payday Loans

Staff working paper 2024-1 Shihan Xie, Victoria Wenxin Xie, Xu Zhang
This paper explores the impact of extreme weather exposures on the financial outcomes of low-income households. Our findings highlight the heightened financial vulnerability of low-income households to environmental shocks and underscore the need for targeted policies.

Perceived Unemployment Risks over Business Cycles

Staff working paper 2025-23 William Du, Adrian Monninger, Xincheng Qiu, Tao Wang
Aggregate consumption impacts of heightened job risks during recessions can arise either from ex-ante responses to the fear of unemployment or from ex-post consumption declines due to realized income losses. We use survey-based perceptions of job risk and actual labor market transitions to quantify the relative contributions of these two channels. We further show that belief stickiness limits the extent of ex-ante insurance against job risks.

Monetary Policy, Credit Constraints and SME Employment

Staff working paper 2022-49 Julien Champagne, Émilien Gouin-Bonenfant
We revisit an old question: how do financial constraints affect the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy? To answer this question, we propose a simple empirical strategy that combines firm-level employment and balance sheet data, identified monetary policy shocks and survey data on financing activities.

Identifying Aggregate Shocks with Micro-level Heterogeneity: Financial Shocks and Investment Fluctuation

Staff working paper 2020-17 Xing Guo
This paper identifies aggregate financial shocks and quantifies their effects on business investment based on an estimated DSGE model with firm-level heterogeneity. On average, financial shocks contribute only 3% of the variation in U.S. public firms’ aggregate investment.
June 7, 2018

The Bank of Canada’s Financial System Survey

This report presents the details of a new semi-annual survey that will improve the Bank of Canada’s surveillance across the financial system and deepen efforts to engage with financial system participants. The survey collects expert opinions on the risks to and resilience of the Canadian financial system as well as on emerging trends and financial innovations. The report presents an overview of the survey and provides high-level results from the spring 2018 survey.
Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, G, G1, G11, G18, G2, G28, G3, G32

Credit Risk and Collateral Demand in a Retail Payment System

Staff discussion paper 2016-16 Héctor Pérez Saiz, Gabriel Xerri
The recent financial crisis has led to the development of new regulations to control risk in designated payment systems, and the implementation of new credit risk management standards is one of the key issues. In this paper, we study various credit risk management schemes for the Canadian retail payment system (ACSS) that are designed to cover the exposure of a defaulting member.
November 16, 2017

Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2017

Is shale oil production in the United States a factor in the 2014 oil price decline? Which methods of payment are commonly accepted by merchants in Canada? Bank researchers share their insights on these topics. They also provide an update on the neutral rate of interest as well as on changes to the Bank’s operational framework for market operations.

International Portfolio Rebalancing and Fiscal Policy Spillovers

Staff working paper 2023-56 Sami Alpanda, Uluc Aysun, Serdar Kabaca
We evaluate, both empirically and theoretically, the spillover effects that debt-financed fiscal policy interventions of the United States have on other economies. We consider a two-country model with international portfolio rebalancing effects. We show that US fiscal expansions would increase global long-term rates and hinder economic activity in the rest of the world.

Sluggish Forecasts

Staff working paper 2018-39 Monica Jain
Given the influence that agents’ expectations have on key macroeconomic variables, it is surprising that very few papers have tried to extrapolate agents’ “true” expectations directly from the data. This paper presents one such approach, starting with the hypothesis that there is sluggishness in inflation and real GDP growth forecasts.
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