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3045 Results

The Global Effects of U.S. Fiscal Policy

Staff Discussion Paper 2008-8 Kimberly Beaton
The author examines the global impact of U.S. fiscal policy using the Bank of Canada's Global Economy Model (Lalonde and Muir 2007). In particular, she examines the global macroeconomic implications of the expiration of major tax cuts in the United States and of expected increases in U.S. entitlement program expenditures.

Trade and Market Power in Product and Labor Markets

Staff Working Paper 2021-17 Gaelan MacKenzie
Trade liberalizations increase the sales and input purchases of productive firms relative to their less productive domestic competitors. This reallocation affects firms’ market power in their product and input markets. I quantify how the labour market power of employers affects the distribution and size of the gains from trade.

Can Affine Term Structure Models Help Us Predict Exchange Rates?

Staff Working Paper 2006-27 Antonio Diez de los Rios
The author proposes an arbitrage-free model of the joint behaviour of interest and exchange rates whose exchange rate forecasts outperform those produced by a random-walk model, a vector autoregression on the forward premiums and the rate of depreciation, and the standard forward premium regression.

Canadian Short-Term Interest Rates and the BAX Futures Market: Analysis of the Impact of Volatility on Hedging Activity and the Correlation of Returns between Markets

Staff Working Paper 1997-18 David Watt
This paper analyses how Canadian financial firms manage short-term interest rate risk through the use of BAX futures contracts. The results show that the most effective hedging strategy is, on average, a static strategy based on linear regression that assumes constant variances, even though dynamic models allowing for time-varying variances are found to have superior explanatory power.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43
February 5, 2020

Our Economic Destiny: Written in R-stars?

Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Economic Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario
Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins talks about how to navigate slow growth and discusses the types of policies that would help secure long-term prosperity.

Estimating the impacts on GDP of natural disasters in Canada

Staff Analytical Note 2025-5 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Thibaut Duprey, Craig Johnston
Extreme weather events contribute to increased volatility in both economic activity and prices, interfering with the assessment of the true underlying trends of the economy. With this in mind, we conduct a timely assessment of the impact of natural disasters on Canadian gross domestic product (GDP).

Monetary Policy and Government Debt Dynamics Without Commitment

Staff Working Paper 2019-52 Dmitry Matveev
I show that maturity considerations affect the optimal conduct of monetary and fiscal policy during a period of government debt reduction. I consider a New Keynesian model and study a dynamic game of monetary and fiscal policy authorities without commitment, characterizing the incentives that drive the choice of interest rate.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E6, E62, E63
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