March 2, 2017 Thermometer Rising—Climate Change and Canada’s Economic Future Remarks Timothy Lane Finance and Sustainability Initiative Montréal, Quebec Deputy Governor Tim Lane discusses the implications of climate change—and actions to address it—for Canada’s economy and financial system. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial markets, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economic models, Economy/Economic growth
Vertical Specialization and Gains from Trade Staff working paper 2017-17 Patrick Alexander Multi-stage production is widely recognized as an important feature of the modern global economy. This feature has been incorporated into many state-of-the-art quantitative trade models, and has been shown to deliver significant additional gains from international trade. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F14, F6, F60 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
A Primer on Neo-Fisherian Economics Staff analytical note 2016-14 Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter, Rhys R. Mendes Conventional models imply that central banks aiming to raise inflation should lower nominal rates and thus stimulate aggregate demand. However, several economists have recently challenged this conventional wisdom in favour of an alternative “neo-Fisherian’’ view under which higher nominal rates might in fact lead to higher inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Multibank Holding Companies and Bank Stability Staff working paper 2018-51 Radoslav Raykov, Consuelo Silva-Buston This paper studies the relationship between bank holding company affiliation and the individual and systemic risk of banks. Using the 2005 hurricane season in the US as an exogenous shock to bank balance sheets, we show that banks that are part of a holding parent company are more resilient than independent banks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G2 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
January 27, 2012 Simulation Analysis: A Tool for Examining the Balance between Safety and Efficiency in Canada’s Large Value Transfer System Financial System Review - December 2005 Neville Arjani Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
A Market-Based Approach to Reverse Stress Testing the Financial System Staff working paper 2025-32 Javier Ojea Ferreiro This article examines what market conditions lead to extreme losses in global financial systems. Using a reverse stress testing approach, it introduces two measures of systemic risk by starting from the tail losses and working backward to identify the events most closely associated with them. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C0, C02, C3, C32, C5, C58, G, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
Comparing Forward Guidance and Neo-Fisherianism as Strategies for Escaping Liquidity Traps Staff analytical note 2016-16 Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter, Rhys R. Mendes What path should policy-makers select for the nominal rate when faced with a liquidity trap during which the effective lower bound binds? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
How Do People View Price and Wage Inflation? Staff working paper 2022-34 Monica Jain, Olena Kostyshyna, Xu Zhang This paper examines household-level data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) to understand households’ expectations about price and wage inflation, how those expectations link to views about labour market conditions and the subsequent impact on households’ outlook for real spending growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D8, D84, E, E2, E21, E24, E3, E31 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Comparison of Bayesian and Sample Theory Parametric and Semiparametric Binary Response Models Staff working paper 2022-31 Xiangjin Shen, Iskander Karibzhanov, Hiroki Tsurumi, Shiliang Li We use graphic processing unit computing to compare Bayesian and sample theory semiparametric binary response models. Our findings show that optimal bandwidth does not outperform regular bandwidth in binary semiparametric models. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C3, C35, C5, C51, C6, C63, D, D1 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
How Do Mortgage Rate Resets Affect Consumer Spending and Debt Repayment? Evidence from Canadian Consumers Staff working paper 2020-18 Katya Kartashova, Xiaoqing Zhou We study the causal effect of mortgage rate changes on consumer spending, debt repayment and defaults during an expansionary and a contractionary monetary policy episode in Canada. We find asymmetric responses of consumer durable spending, deleveraging and defaults. These findings help us to understand household sector response to interest rate changes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D14, E, E4, E43, E5, E52, G, G2, G21, R, R3, R31 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Real economy and forecasting