Global Commodity Markets and Rebalancing in China: The Case of Copper Staff discussion paper 2019-3 Jeannine Bailliu, Doga Bilgin, Kun Mo, Kurt Niquidet, Benjamin Sawatzky Given that China accounts for about half of global copper consumption, it is reasonable to expect that any significant change in Chinese copper consumption will have an impact on the global market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): O, O1, O13, O14, Q, Q0, Q02 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions Staff working paper 2020-16 Danilo Leiva-Leon, Luis Uzeda We introduce a new class of time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) where the identified structural innovations are allowed to influence — contemporaneously and with a lag — the dynamics of the intercept and autoregressive coefficients in these models. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, E, E3, E31, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Vertical Specialization and Gains from Trade Staff working paper 2017-17 Patrick Alexander Multi-stage production is widely recognized as an important feature of the modern global economy. This feature has been incorporated into many state-of-the-art quantitative trade models, and has been shown to deliver significant additional gains from international trade. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F14, F6, F60 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Ambiguity, Nominal Bond Yields and Real Bond Yields Staff working paper 2018-24 Guihai Zhao Equilibrium bond-pricing models rely on inflation being bad news for future growth to generate upward-sloping nominal yield curves. We develop a model that can generate upward-sloping nominal and real yield curves by instead using ambiguity about inflation and growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, G, G0, G00, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Canada’s Monetary Policy Report: If Text Could Speak, What Would It Say? Staff analytical note 2019-5 André Binette, Dmitri Tchebotarev This note analyzes the evolution of the narrative in the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR). It presents descriptive statistics on the core text, including length, most frequently used words and readability level—the three Ls. Although each Governor of the Bank of Canada focuses on the macroeconomic events of the day and the mandate of inflation targeting, we observe that the language used in the MPR varies somewhat from one Governor’s tenure to the next. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E0, E02, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
An Investigation into the Effects of Border Carbon Adjustments on the Canadian Economy Staff working paper 2023-27 Y.-H. Henry Chen, Hossein Hosseini Jebeli, Craig Johnston, Sergey Paltsev, Marie-Christine Tremblay We examine the economic implications of border carbon adjustments (BCAs) for Canada. We find that, BCAs, in the form of import tariffs, reduce Canada’s carbon leakage and improve its competitiveness when Canada is part of a broad coalition of BCA-implementing countries. Welfare also improves when tariff revenues are transferred to households. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C68, F, F1, H, H2, Q, Q3, Q37, Q5 Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, Climate change, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Qualitative Field Research in Monetary Policy Making Staff discussion paper 2021-1 Chris D'Souza, Jane Voll Central banks conduct research involving in-depth interviews with external parties—but little is known about how this information affects monetary policy. We address this gap by analyzing open-ended interviews with senior central bank economic and policy staff who work closely with policy decision-makers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, E, E3, E37, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
February 8, 2018 At the Crossroads: Innovation and Inclusive Growth Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins G7 Symposium on Innovation and Inclusive Growth Montebello, Quebec Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses technological progress and how policy-makers can harness it for economic growth that benefits everyone. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Currency, Digital currency, Financial system, Financial stability, Fintech, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth
A Market-Based Approach to Reverse Stress Testing the Financial System Staff working paper 2025-32 Javier Ojea Ferreiro This article examines what market conditions lead to extreme losses in global financial systems. Using a reverse stress testing approach, it introduces two measures of systemic risk by starting from the tail losses and working backward to identify the events most closely associated with them. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C0, C02, C3, C32, C5, C58, G, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
Alternative Futures for Government of Canada Debt Management Staff discussion paper 2018-15 Corey Garriott, Sophie Lefebvre, Guillaume Nolin, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Adrian Walton This paper presents four blue-sky ideas for lowering the cost of the Government of Canada’s debt without increasing the debt’s risk profile. We argue that each idea would improve the secondary-market liquidity of government debt, thereby increasing the demand for government bonds and thus lowering their cost at issuance. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G2, G24, H, H6, H63 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market functioning, Market structure