Innovation and Growth with Financial, and Other, Frictions Staff Working Paper 2011-25 Jonathan Chiu, Césaire Meh, Randall Wright The generation and implementation of ideas, or knowledge, is crucial for economic performance. We study this process in a model of endogenous growth with frictions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E4, G, G2, O, O3, O4
Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2024 update Staff Analytical Note 2024-9 Frida Adjalala, Felipe Alves, Hélène Desgagnés, Wei Dong, Dmitry Matveev, Laure Simon We assess both the US and Canadian nominal neutral rates to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, somewhat higher than the range of 2.0% to 3.0% in 2023. The assessed range is back to the level it was at in April 2019. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41
Producer Heterogeneity, Value-Added, and International Trade Staff Working Paper 2016-54 Patrick Alexander Standard new trade models depict producers as heterogeneous in total factor productivity. In this paper, I adapt the Eaton and Kortum (2002) model of international trade to incorporate tradable intermediate goods and producer heterogeneity in value-added productivity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, International topics, Productivity, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F12, F14
Payment Habits During COVID-19: Evidence from High-Frequency Transaction Data Staff Working Paper 2021-43 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Angelika Welte We examine how consumers have adjusted their payment habits during the COVID-19 pandemic. They seem to perform fewer transactions, spend more in each transaction, use less cash at the point of sale and withdraw cash from ATMs linked to their financial institution more often than from other ATMs. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Payment clearing and settlement systems, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C55, D, D1, D12, E, E2, E21, E4, E42, E5, E52
Consumer Credit with Over-optimistic Borrowers Staff Working Paper 2020-57 Florian Exler, Igor Livshits, James (Jim) C. MacGee, Michèle Tertilt When lenders cannot directly identify behavioural and rational borrowers, they use type scoring to track the likelihood of a borrower’s type. This leads to the partial pooling of borrowers, which results in rational borrowers subsidizing borrowing costs for behavioural borrowers. This, in turn, reduces the effectiveness of regulatory policies that target mistakes by behavioural borrowers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Credit risk management, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E49, G, G1, G18, K, K3, K35
Bank Loans for Private and Public Firms in a Credit Crunch Staff Working Paper 2011-13 Jason Allen, Teodora Paligorova Banks reliance on short-term funding has increased over time. While an effective source of financing in good times, the 2007 financial crisis has exposed the vulnerability of banks and ultimately firms to such a liability structure. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G20
Firms Dynamics, Bankruptcy Laws and Total Factor Productivity Staff Working Paper 2007-17 Hajime Tomura This paper analyzes endogenous fluctuations in total factor productivity (TFP) in a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents, and illustrates the interaction of credit market frictions, asset prices, the entry and exit of firms, and fluctuations in TFP in response to firm-level productivity and aggregate credit-market shocks. I also analyze the effect of bankruptcy and foreclosure laws on fluctuations in TFP through their effect on credit market frictions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, E, E4, E44, G, G3, G33
What Can Earnings Calls Tell Us About the Output Gap and Inflation in Canada? Staff Discussion Paper 2023-13 Marc-André Gosselin, Temel Taskin We construct new indicators of demand and supply for the Canadian economy by using natural language processing techniques to analyze earnings calls of publicly listed firms. Our results indicate that the new indicators could help central banks identify inflationary pressures in real time. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C1, C3, E, E3, E5
An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Term Structure of Zero-Coupon Interest Rates Staff Working Paper 2004-48 David Bolder, Adam Metzler, Grahame Johnson Zero-coupon interest rates are the fundamental building block of fixed-income mathematics, and as such have an extensive number of applications in both finance and economics. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C0, C6, E, E4, G, G1
Government and Private E-Money-Like Systems: Federal Reserve Notes and National Bank Notes Staff Working Paper 2015-18 Warren E. Weber The period from 1914 to 1935 in the United States is unique in that it was the only time that both privately-issued bank notes (national bank notes) and central bank-issued bank notes (Federal Reserve notes) were simultaneously in circulation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E58