Multibank Holding Companies and Bank Stability Staff working paper 2018-51 Radoslav Raykov, Consuelo Silva-Buston This paper studies the relationship between bank holding company affiliation and the individual and systemic risk of banks. Using the 2005 hurricane season in the US as an exogenous shock to bank balance sheets, we show that banks that are part of a holding parent company are more resilient than independent banks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G2 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
Vertical Specialization and Gains from Trade Staff working paper 2017-17 Patrick Alexander Multi-stage production is widely recognized as an important feature of the modern global economy. This feature has been incorporated into many state-of-the-art quantitative trade models, and has been shown to deliver significant additional gains from international trade. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F14, F6, F60 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions Staff working paper 2020-16 Danilo Leiva-Leon, Luis Uzeda We introduce a new class of time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) where the identified structural innovations are allowed to influence — contemporaneously and with a lag — the dynamics of the intercept and autoregressive coefficients in these models. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, E, E3, E31, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
An Investigation into the Effects of Border Carbon Adjustments on the Canadian Economy Staff working paper 2023-27 Y.-H. Henry Chen, Hossein Hosseini Jebeli, Craig Johnston, Sergey Paltsev, Marie-Christine Tremblay We examine the economic implications of border carbon adjustments (BCAs) for Canada. We find that, BCAs, in the form of import tariffs, reduce Canada’s carbon leakage and improve its competitiveness when Canada is part of a broad coalition of BCA-implementing countries. Welfare also improves when tariff revenues are transferred to households. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C68, F, F1, H, H2, Q, Q3, Q37, Q5 Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, Climate change, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Addictive Platforms Staff working paper 2022-16 Shota Ichihashi, Byung-Cheol Kim We study competition for consumer attention, in which platforms can sacrifice service quality for attention. A platform can choose the “addictiveness” of its service. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, D40, L, L5, L51 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
Identifying Aggregate Shocks with Micro-level Heterogeneity: Financial Shocks and Investment Fluctuation Staff working paper 2020-17 Xing Guo This paper identifies aggregate financial shocks and quantifies their effects on business investment based on an estimated DSGE model with firm-level heterogeneity. On average, financial shocks contribute only 3% of the variation in U.S. public firms’ aggregate investment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E2, E22, G, G3, G31, G32 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
Qualitative Field Research in Monetary Policy Making Staff discussion paper 2021-1 Chris D'Souza, Jane Voll Central banks conduct research involving in-depth interviews with external parties—but little is known about how this information affects monetary policy. We address this gap by analyzing open-ended interviews with senior central bank economic and policy staff who work closely with policy decision-makers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, E, E3, E37, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
A Market-Based Approach to Reverse Stress Testing the Financial System Staff working paper 2025-32 Javier Ojea Ferreiro This article examines what market conditions lead to extreme losses in global financial systems. Using a reverse stress testing approach, it introduces two measures of systemic risk by starting from the tail losses and working backward to identify the events most closely associated with them. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C0, C02, C3, C32, C5, C58, G, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
Monetary Policy, Credit Constraints and SME Employment Staff working paper 2022-49 Julien Champagne, Émilien Gouin-Bonenfant We revisit an old question: how do financial constraints affect the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy? To answer this question, we propose a simple empirical strategy that combines firm-level employment and balance sheet data, identified monetary policy shocks and survey data on financing activities. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E43, E5, E52, G, G3 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
Extreme Weather and Low-Income Household Finance: Evidence from Payday Loans Staff working paper 2024-1 Shihan Xie, Victoria Wenxin Xie, Xu Zhang This paper explores the impact of extreme weather exposures on the financial outcomes of low-income households. Our findings highlight the heightened financial vulnerability of low-income households to environmental shocks and underscore the need for targeted policies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G5, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Structural challenges, Climate change