A Counterfactual Valuation of the Stock Index as a Predictor of Crashes Staff Working Paper 2017-38 Tom Roberts Stock market fundamentals would not seem to meaningfully predict returns over a shorter-term horizon—instead, I shift focus to severe downside risk (i.e., crashes). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G12, G17, G19
Good Volatility, Bad Volatility and Option Pricing Staff Working Paper 2017-52 Bruno Feunou, Cédric Okou Advances in variance analysis permit the splitting of the total quadratic variation of a jump diffusion process into upside and downside components. Recent studies establish that this decomposition enhances volatility predictions, and highlight the upside/downside variance spread as a driver of the asymmetry in stock price distributions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12
Global Real Activity for Canadian Exports: GRACE Staff Discussion Paper 2017-2 André Binette, Tony Chernis, Daniel de Munnik Canadian exports have often disappointed since the Great Recession. The apparent disconnect between exports and the Bank of Canada’s current measure of foreign demand has created an impetus to search for an alternative. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F4, F43
December 23, 2004 Monetary Policy, Private Information, and International Stock Markets Financial System Review - December 2004 Gregory Bauer, Clara Vega Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Working Time over the 20th Century Staff Working Paper 2006-18 Alexander Ueberfeldt From 1870 to 2000, the workweek length of employed persons decreased by 41 per cent in industrialized countries. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E2, E24, O, O1, O11
Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the U.S. Economy Staff Working Paper 2012-2 Christiane Baumeister, Gert Peersman We use vector autoregressions with drifting coefficients and stochastic volatility to investigate how the dynamic effects of oil supply shocks on the U.S. economy have changed over time. We find a substantial decline in the short-run price elasticity of oil demand since the mid-eighties. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, Q, Q4, Q43
February 1, 2012 Measuring Financial Stress Financial System Review - December 2003 Mark Illing, Ying Liu Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
The Role of Convenience and Risk in Consumers' Means of Payment Staff Discussion Paper 2009-8 Carlos Arango, Varya Taylor Using data from a 2004 survey of the Canadian public, the authors study the role of convenience and risk in consumers' use of cash relative to debit and credit cards. The authors find that consumers who perceive debit cards and credit cards to be more convenient and less risky than cash use them more frequently. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, L, L2
Characterizing the Canadian Financial Cycle with Frequency Filtering Approaches Staff Analytical Note 2018-34 Andrew Lee-Poy In this note, I use two multivariate frequency filtering approaches to characterize the Canadian financial cycle by capturing fluctuations in the underlying variables with respect to a long-term trend. The first approach is a dynamically weighted composite, and the second is a stochastic cycle model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C1, C13, C14, C18, C3, C32, C5, C51, C52, E, E3, E32, E6, E66, G, G0, G01, G1, G18
Recent Developments in Self-Employment in Canada Staff Working Paper 2005-8 Nadja Kamhi, Danny Leung The authors document the recent evolution of the self-employment rate in Canada. Between 1987 and 1998, the self-employment rate rose 3.5 percentage points from 13.8 per cent to 17.3 per cent. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Labour markets JEL Code(s): J, J2, J23, J24