Monetary Policy, Trends in Real Interest Rates and Depressed Demand Staff Working Paper 2021-27 Paul Beaudry, Césaire Meh Over the last few decades, real interest rates have trended downward. The most common explanation is that this reflects depressed demand due to demographic, technological and other real factors. We explore the claim that these trends may have been amplified by certain features of monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Debt management, Economic models, Fiscal policy, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E4, E43, E44, E5, E52, E6, E62, E63, H, H3, H6, H63
Does Unconventional Monetary and Fiscal Policy Contribute to the COVID Inflation Surge in the US? Staff Working Paper 2024-38 Jing Cynthia Wu, Yinxi Xie, Ji Zhang We assess whether unconventional monetary and fiscal policy implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. contribute to the 2021-2023 inflation surge through the lens of several different empirical methodologies and establish a null result. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Fiscal policy, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E6, E63
Chinese Monetary Policy and Text Analytics: Connecting Words and Deeds Staff Working Paper 2021-3 Jeannine Bailliu, Xinfen Han, Barbara Sadaba, Mark Kruger What are the main drivers behind the monetary policy reaction function of the People’s Bank of China? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, E, E5, E52, E58
Trends in U.S. Hours and the Labor Wedge Staff Working Paper 2010-28 Simona Cociuba, Alexander Ueberfeldt From 1980 until 2007, U.S. average hours worked increased by thirteen percent, due to a large increase in female hours. At the same time, the U.S. labor wedge, measured as the discrepancy between a representative household's marginal rate of substitution between consumption and leisure and the marginal product of labor, declined substantially. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Labour markets, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, H, H2, H20, H3, H31, J, J2, J22
The Global Effects of U.S. Fiscal Policy Staff Discussion Paper 2008-8 Kimberly Beaton The author examines the global impact of U.S. fiscal policy using the Bank of Canada's Global Economy Model (Lalonde and Muir 2007). In particular, she examines the global macroeconomic implications of the expiration of major tax cuts in the United States and of expected increases in U.S. entitlement program expenditures. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Fiscal policy, International topics, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): H, H0, H2, H3
November 17, 2011 Modelling the Counterfeiting of Bank Notes: A Literature Review Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2011 Ben Fung, Enchuan Shao The objective of this article is to improve our understanding of counterfeiting and its policy implications by reviewing research in this area. There has been almost no empirical work on counterfeiting because of the limited availability of counterfeiting data and related statistics. The authors therefore focus on theoretical studies that directly model the behaviour of the relevant economic agents. They first establish some stylized facts about counterfeiting to provide a general understanding of the problem. They then briefly review several models of counterfeiting and summarize their relevant insights, focusing on the implications of the findings for the incentive to counterfeit, social welfare and anti-counterfeiting policies. The authors find that the policy implications of these studies support the Bank’s comprehensive anti-counterfeiting strategy. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Bank notes
A Model of Housing Stock for Canada Staff Working Paper 2010-19 David Dupuis, Yi Zheng Using an error-correction model (ECM) framework, the authors attempt to quantify the degree of disequilibrium in Canadian housing stock over the period 1961–2008 for the national aggregate and over 1981–2008 for the provinces. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, J, J0, J00
Modelling Financial Instability: A Survey of the Literature Staff Working Paper 2002-12 Alexandra Lai The magnitude and frequency of recent financial crises underscore the importance of understanding financial instability for the purpose of crisis prevention and crisis management. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial services JEL Code(s): G, G2, G20, G21, G28
Currency Fluctuations, Liability Dollarization, and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Markets Staff Working Paper 2002-6 Patrick Osakwe Traditional models of exchange rate regimes ignore the destabilizing effects of sharp and unanticipated exchange rate movements. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, F, F3, F31, F4, F41
Heterogeneous Returns to U.S. College Selectivity and the Value of Graduate Degree Attainment Staff Working Paper 2013-46 Mai Seki Existing studies on the returns to college selectivity have mixed results, mainly due to the difficulty of controlling for selection into more-selective colleges based on unobserved ability. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Labour markets JEL Code(s): C, C3, C30, I, I2, I21