Financial Constraint and Productivity: Evidence from Canadian SMEs Staff working paper 2016-44 Shutao Cao, Danny Leung The degree to which financial constraint is binding is often not directly observable in commonly used business data sets (e.g., Compustat). In this paper, we measure and estimate the likelihood of a firm being constrained by external financing using a data set of small- and medium-sized Canadian firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, G, G3, G32, L, L2, L25 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
Parallel Tempering for DSGE Estimation Staff working paper 2024-13 Joshua Brault I develop a population-based Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm known as parallel tempering to estimate dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. Parallel tempering approximates the posterior distribution of interest using a family of Markov chains with tempered posteriors. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C15, E, E1, E10 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models
How Do Interest Rates Spur the Housing Market: Exploring Nonlinear Effects Staff analytical paper 2026-35 Benjamin Straus, Stéphane Surprenant, Kerem Tuzcuoglu In this note we examine how monetary policy affects housing demand, supply and prices in Canada, and whether these effects vary with labour market conditions Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E5, E52, R, R3, R31 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Comparison of Bayesian and Sample Theory Parametric and Semiparametric Binary Response Models Staff working paper 2022-31 Xiangjin Shen, Iskander Karibzhanov, Hiroki Tsurumi, Shiliang Li We use graphic processing unit computing to compare Bayesian and sample theory semiparametric binary response models. Our findings show that optimal bandwidth does not outperform regular bandwidth in binary semiparametric models. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C3, C35, C5, C51, C6, C63, D, D1 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions Staff working paper 2020-16 Danilo Leiva-Leon, Luis Uzeda We introduce a new class of time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) where the identified structural innovations are allowed to influence — contemporaneously and with a lag — the dynamics of the intercept and autoregressive coefficients in these models. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, E, E3, E31, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
International Portfolio Rebalancing and Fiscal Policy Spillovers Staff working paper 2023-56 Sami Alpanda, Uluc Aysun, Serdar Kabaca We evaluate, both empirically and theoretically, the spillover effects that debt-financed fiscal policy interventions of the United States have on other economies. We consider a two-country model with international portfolio rebalancing effects. We show that US fiscal expansions would increase global long-term rates and hinder economic activity in the rest of the world. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E6, E62, F, F4, F41, F44 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
October 15, 2007 Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2007 Cover page Siamese Gaming Tokens The tokens pictured here are part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada. Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
December 23, 2003 Financial System Review - December 2003 This section of the Financial System Review examines the recent performance of the Canadian financial system and the factors, both domestic and international, that are influencing it. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
Privacy as a Public Good: A Case for Electronic Cash Staff working paper 2019-24 Rodney J. Garratt, Maarten van Oordt Cash gives users a high level of privacy when making payments, but the use of cash to make payments is declining. People increasingly use debit cards, credit cards or other methods to pay. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, G, G2, G28 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Digital assets and fintech, Retail payments
Canada’s Monetary Policy Report: If Text Could Speak, What Would It Say? Staff analytical note 2019-5 André Binette, Dmitri Tchebotarev This note analyzes the evolution of the narrative in the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR). It presents descriptive statistics on the core text, including length, most frequently used words and readability level—the three Ls. Although each Governor of the Bank of Canada focuses on the macroeconomic events of the day and the mandate of inflation targeting, we observe that the language used in the MPR varies somewhat from one Governor’s tenure to the next. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E0, E02, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting