December 21, 2007 An Approach to Stress Testing the Canadian Mortgage Portfolio Financial System Review - December 2007 Moez Souissi Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
January 24, 2012 Sectoral Default Rates under Stress: The Importance of Non-Linearities Financial System Review - June 2007 Miroslav Misina, David Tessier Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Labour Supply and Firm Size Staff working paper 2023-47 Lin Shao, Faisal Sohail, Emircan Yurdagul This paper documents a systematic pattern of how wages, hours and their relationship vary across firms of different sizes. Using a model with heterogeneous firms and workers, we show how the interplay between wages, hours and firm size affect worker sorting and inequality. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J3, J31 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Strengthening Inflation Targeting: Review and Renewal Processes in Canada and Other Advanced Jurisdictions Staff discussion paper 2020-7 Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter, Lawrence L. Schembri We summarize the review and renewal process at four central banks (Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Bank of England, Sveriges Riksbank and the US Federal Reserve Bank) and compare them with the process at the Bank of Canada, which has been well-established since 2001. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Bouncing Back: How Mothballing Curbs Prices Staff working paper 2024-51 Thibaut Duprey, Artur Kotlicki, Daniel E. Rigobon, Philip Schnattinger We investigate the macroeconomic impacts of mothballed businesses—those that closed temporarily—on sectoral equilibrium prices after a negative demand shock. Our results suggest that pandemic fiscal support for temporary closures may have eased inflationary pressures. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C55, C8, C81, D, D2, D22, E, E3, E32 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
How do Canadian Corporate Bond Mutual Funds Meet Investor Redemptions? Staff analytical note 2018-14 Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Rohan Arora When investors redeem their fund shares for cash, fixed-income fund managers can choose whether to draw on their liquid holdings or sell bonds in the secondary market. We analyze the liquidity-management decisions of Canadian corporate bond mutual funds, focusing on the strategies they use to meet investor redemptions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): G, G1, G2, G20, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
August 15, 2013 Monitoring Short-Term Economic Developments in Foreign Economies Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2013 Russell Barnett, Pierre Guérin The Bank of Canada uses several short-term forecasting models for the monitoring of key foreign economies - the United States, the euro area, Japan and China. The design of the forecasting models used for each region is influenced by the level of detail required, as well as the timeliness and volatility of data. Forecasts from different models are typically combined to mitigate model uncertainty, and judgment is applied to the model forecasts to incorporate information that is not directly reflected in the most recent indicators. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37
February 23, 2012 Household Insolvency in Canada Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2011-2012 Jason Allen, H. Evren Damar With increasing levels of household debt in recent years, the number of households that may be vulnerable to a negative economic shock is rising as well. Decisions made by both the debtor and the creditor can contribute to insolvency. This article presents some stylized facts about insolvency in Canada’s household sector and analyzes the role of creditors in insolvencies. The average debt of an individual filing for bankruptcy is more than 1.5 times that of an average Canadian household; bankruptcy filers tend to be unemployed or in low-wage jobs, and are typically renters. The article reports that banks that approve more loans per branch, which is interpreted as less-intensive use of soft information (such as the loan officer’s assessment of the applicant’s character), experience more client bankruptcies. This finding has important policy implications, because financial institutions that do not use soft information risk further deterioration in their lending portfolios. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): D, D4, G, G2
Analyzing the house price boom in the suburbs of Canada’s major cities during the pandemic Staff analytical note 2022-7 Louis Morel We assess how location affects house prices in Canada. The gap in prices between suburbs and downtown was closing gradually before the pandemic. The gap has been closing faster since spring 2020. This finding reflects a shift in preferences toward more living space. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): R, R2, R21, R23, R3, R32 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
January 29, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—January 2025—In focus—Recent factors affecting the Canada-US exchange rate The Canadian dollar has declined against the US dollar since October 2024, mostly due to rising uncertainty around trade policies. A widening differential in policy interest rates between the two countries has also played a modest role.