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3045 Results

Can Affine Term Structure Models Help Us Predict Exchange Rates?

Staff Working Paper 2006-27 Antonio Diez de los Rios
The author proposes an arbitrage-free model of the joint behaviour of interest and exchange rates whose exchange rate forecasts outperform those produced by a random-walk model, a vector autoregression on the forward premiums and the rate of depreciation, and the standard forward premium regression.
November 19, 2010

Has Exchange Rate Pass-Through Really Declined? Some Recent Insights from the Literature

Building on an earlier Review article, the authors critically reassess the premise that exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) has declined in light of recent studies of the issue in the context of a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium framework.

Structural Inflation Models with Real Wage Rigidities: The Case of Canada

Staff Working Paper 2009-21 Jean-Marie Dufour, Lynda Khalaf, Maral Kichian
Real wage rigidities have recently been proposed as a way of building intrinsic persistence in inflation within the context of New Keynesian Phillips Curves. Using two recent illustrative structural models, we evaluate empirically the importance of real wage rigidities in the data and the extent to which such models provide useful information regarding price stickiness.

Exchange Rate Fluctuations, Plant Turnover and Productivity

Staff Working Paper 2010-18 Ben Tomlin
In a small open economy fluctuations in the real exchange rate can affect plant turnover, and thus aggregate productivity, by altering the makeup of plants that populate the market. An appreciation of the local currency increases the level of competition in the domestic market as import competition intensifies and export opportunities shrink, forcing less productive plants from the market and compelling new entrants to be more competitive than they otherwise would have been.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Market structure and pricing, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D21, D24, L, L1, L11

Does Unconventional Monetary and Fiscal Policy Contribute to the COVID Inflation Surge in the US?

Staff Working Paper 2024-38 Jing Cynthia Wu, Yinxi Xie, Ji Zhang
We assess whether unconventional monetary and fiscal policy implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. contribute to the 2021-2023 inflation surge through the lens of several different empirical methodologies and establish a null result.

Downward Nominal-Wage Rigidity: Micro Evidence from Tobit Models

Staff Working Paper 2001-7 Allan Crawford, Geoff Wright
This paper uses Tobit models and data for union contracts to examine the extent of downward nominal-wage rigidity in Canada. To be consistent with important stylized facts, the models allow the variance of the notional wage-change distribution to be time-varying and test for menu-cost effects.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation targets, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E5, E52, E6, E61

Central Bank Haircut Policy

Staff Working Paper 2010-23 James Chapman, Jonathan Chiu, Miguel Molico
We present a model of central bank collateralized lending to study the optimal choice of the haircut policy. We show that a lending facility provides a bundle of two types of insurance: insurance against liquidity risk as well as insurance against downside risk of the collateral.
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