Should Bank Capital Regulation Be Risk Sensitive? Staff working paper 2018-48 Toni Ahnert, James Chapman, Carolyn A. Wilkins We present a simple model to study the risk sensitivity of capital regulation. A banker funds investment with uninsured deposits and costly capital, where capital resolves a moral hazard problem in the banker’s choice of risk. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight
Firm-level Investment Under Imperfect Capital Markets in Ukraine Staff working paper 2019-14 Oleksandr Shcherbakov This paper develops and estimates a model of firm-level fixed capital investment when firms face borrowing constraints. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, C63, D, D2, D24, G, G3, G31 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models
Do Monetary Policy Shocks Affect the Neutral Rate of Interest? Staff working paper 2026-6 Danilo Leiva-Leon, Rodrigo Sekkel, Luis Uzeda Can monetary policy influence the neutral real interest rate (r-star)? Using a new statistical model, we show that interest rate hikes tend to lower r-star and long-run growth, but that monetary policy explains only a small share of the long-run decline in r-star. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C51, E, E3, E32, E4, E44 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Fiscal and Monetary Stabilization Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Consequences of Limited Foresight Staff working paper 2021-51 Michael Woodford, Yinxi Xie How do outcomes of monetary and fiscal stabilization policies at the zero lower bound change when decision makers have finite planning horizons in the economy? We explore the effects of limited foresight on policy tools and the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E6, E63, E7 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Real economy and forecasting
Examining the Links Between Firm Performance and Insolvency Staff discussion paper 2025-10 Dylan Hogg, Hossein Hosseini Jebeli Assessing insolvency dynamics is essential for evaluating the financial health of non-financial corporations and mitigating macroeconomic and financial stability risks. This study leverages a newly created Statistics Canada dataset linking insolvency records with firm-level financial data to develop a robust framework for monitoring insolvency risk Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, G, G3, G33, L, L2, L20 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
Has wage setting changed in Canada? Evidence from the pre-pandemic 2020 Wage-Setting Survey Staff analytical note 2022-10 David Amirault, Sarah Miller, Matthieu Verstraete Just before the pandemic began, the Bank of Canada conducted the 2020 Wage-Setting Survey. The goal was to explore the unusual trend of subdued wage growth in 2018 and 2019 despite a tightening in the labour market. Although this wage puzzle was beginning to resolve at the time of the survey, results highlight changes in several factors that may have important impacts on wage dynamics. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): J, J3, J31, J32, J33, J6, J63 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Sovereigns Staff discussion paper 2017-7 Philippe Muller, Jérôme Bourque The investment of foreign exchange reserves or other asset portfolios requires an assessment of the credit quality of investment counterparties. Traditionally, foreign exchange reserve and asset managers have relied on credit rating agencies (CRAs) as the main source for credit assessments. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, G, G2, G24, G28, G3, G32 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models
The Impact of Macroprudential Housing Finance Tools in Canada: 2005–10 Staff working paper 2016-41 Jason Allen, Timothy Grieder, Brian Peterson, Tom Roberts This paper combines loan-level administrative data with household-level survey data to analyze the impact of recent macroprudential policy changes in Canada using a microsimulation model of mortgage demand of first-time homebuyers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, D, D1, D14, G, G2, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Central Bank Liquidity Policy in Modern Times Staff discussion paper 2024-6 Skylar Brooks Across several dimensions of lender of last resort policy, I highlight broad changes that have occurred since the 2008–09 global financial crisis and discuss some of the key challenges, choices and considerations facing the designers of central bank liquidity tools today. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): D, D5, D53, E, E5, E58, E6, E61, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G23, H, H1, H12 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Crude Oil Prices and Fixed-Asset Cash Spending in the Oil and Gas Industry: Findings from VAR Models Staff analytical note 2016-8 Farrukh Suvankulov This note investigates the relationship between crude oil prices and investment in the energy sector. We employ a set of vector autoregression (VAR) models (unconstrained VAR, vector error-correction and Bayesian VAR) to formalize the relationship between the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark and fixed-asset cash spending in the oil and gas extraction and support activities sector of the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E27, Q, Q4, Q43, Q47 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting