October 25, 2005 Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2005 Cover page Ready References The book is part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada. Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
The Real-Time Properties of the Bank of Canada’s Staff Output Gap Estimates Staff working paper 2016-28 Julien Champagne, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle, Rodrigo Sekkel We study the revision properties of the Bank of Canada’s staff output gap estimates since the mid-1980s. Our results suggest that the average staff output gap revision has decreased significantly over the past 15 years, in line with recent evidence for the U.S. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, E, E1, E17, E3, E32 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
Monetary Policy in an AI-Driven Two-Speed Economy Staff working paper 2026-27 Joshua Brault, Maryam Haghighi, Jing Yang We analyze monetary policy responses to AI in a two-sector New Keynesian model, distinguishing augmentation and automation. Both reduce labor demand, requiring accommodation that creates inflation trade-offs. Automation worsens them. Aggregate inflation depends on AI’s form and breadth, making policy stabilization more complex and aggregate data potentially misleading. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52, J, J2, J23, O, O3, O33 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
Canada’s Experience with Trade Policy Staff discussion paper 2018-1 Karyne B. Charbonneau, Daniel de Munnik, Laura Murphy This paper compiles the contemporary view on three major Canadian-led trade policies that have marked Canada’s economic history since Confederation: the National Policy (1879), the Canada–US Agreement on Automotive Products (Auto Pact, 1965) and the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement (FTA, 1989, including its extension to the North American Free Trade Agreement, NAFTA, 1994). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, N, N7, N71, N72 Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Who Pays? CCP Resource Provision in the Post-Pittsburgh World Staff discussion paper 2017-17 Jorge Cruz Lopez, Mark Manning At the Pittsburgh Summit in 2009, G20 countries announced their commitment to clear all standardized over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives through central counterparties (CCPs). Since then, CCPs have become increasingly important and there has been an extensive program of regulatory enhancements to both them and OTC derivatives markets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
June 23, 2005 Financial System Review - June 2005 The financial system makes an important contribution to the welfare of all Canadians. The ability of households and firms to confidently hold and transfer financial assets is one of the fundamental building blocks of the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
The Geography of Pandemic Containment Staff working paper 2021-26 Elisa Giannone, Nuno Paixão, Xinle Pang Interconnectedness between US states has affected the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. We study the optimal containment policies regulating the movement of goods and people within and between states. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, H, H0, I, I1, R, R1 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Using Speed and Credit Limits to Address the Procyclicality of Initial Margin at Central Counterparties Staff discussion paper 2016-18 Nikil Chande, Nicholas Labelle This paper proposes a practical approach to address the procyclicality of initial margin at central counterparties (CCPs) that can work even in periods of extreme stress. The approach allows CCPs to limit the speed of margin increases resulting from spikes in market volatility. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G18 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Which Model to Forecast the Target Rate? Staff working paper 2017-60 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Jianjian Jin Specifications of the Federal Reserve target rate that have more realistic features mitigate in-sample over-fitting and are favored in the data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
The Canadian Neutral Rate of Interest through the Lens of an Overlapping-Generations Model Staff discussion paper 2023-5 Martin Kuncl, Dmitry Matveev We use a small open economy model with overlapping generations to evaluate secular dynamics of the neutral rate in Canada from 1980 to 2018. We find that changes in both foreign and domestic factors resulted in a protracted decline in the neutral rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E22, E4, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply