February 23, 2012 Household Borrowing and Spending in Canada Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2011-2012 Jeannine Bailliu, Katya Kartashova, Césaire Meh Understanding how much of the increased debt load of Canadian households has been used to finance household spending on consumption and home renovation is important for the conduct of monetary policy. In this article, the authors use a comprehensive data set that provides information on the uses of debt by Canadian households. They first present some facts regarding the evolution of Canadian household debt over the period from 1999 to 2010, emphasizing the increased importance of debt flows that are secured by housing. They then explore how Canadian households have used their borrowed funds over the same period, and assess the role of these borrowed funds in financing total consumption and spending on home renovation. Finally, they examine the possible effects of a decline in house prices on consumption when housing equity is used as collateral against household indebtedness. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Domestic demand and components, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E5, E51, H, H3, H31
July 21, 2010 Why Monetary Policy Matters: A Canadian Perspective This paper provides a non-technical introduction to monetary policy - what it is, how it works, and why it matters. It discusses inflation volatility and why this is damaging to the economy, as well as why increased stability of output growth is desirable. Content Type(s): Publications, Books and monographs
Central Bank Haircut Policy Staff Working Paper 2010-23 James Chapman, Jonathan Chiu, Miguel Molico We present a model of central bank collateralized lending to study the optimal choice of the haircut policy. We show that a lending facility provides a bundle of two types of insurance: insurance against liquidity risk as well as insurance against downside risk of the collateral. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Financial services, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy implementation, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E5, E50
Time-Consistent Control in Non-Linear Models Staff Working Paper 2007-3 Steve Ambler, Florian Pelgrin We show how to use optimal control theory to derive optimal time-consistent Markov-perfect government policies in nonlinear dynamic general equilibrium models, extending the result of Cohen and Michel (1988) for models with quadratic objective functions and linear dynamics. We replace private agents' costates by flexible functions of current states in the government's maximization problem. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, E, E6, E61, E62
An Evaluation of MLE in a Model of the Nonlinear Continuous-Time Short-Term Interest Rate Staff Working Paper 2005-45 Ingrid Lo The author compares the performance of three Gaussian approximation methods - by Nowman (1997), Shoji and Ozaki (1998), and Yu and Phillips (2001) - in estimating a model of the nonlinear continuous-time short-term interest rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C1, E, E4
Monetary Policy Implementation and Payment System Modernization Staff Working Paper 2020-26 Jonathan Witmer Canada plans to adopt a retail payment system to allow Canadians to pay in real time (or near real time) 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. However, the traditional model for setting the overnight interest rate does not operate 24/7. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy implementation, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E42, E43
Non-homothetic Preferences and the Demand Channel of Inflation Staff Working Paper 2025-30 Stephen Murchison An alternative to the standard CES aggregator, based on non-homothetic household preferences, is proposed. Specifically, the elasticity of substitution between goods declines during periods of strong per-capita consumption and vice versa, giving firms an incentive to adjust their desired markup in response to the state of demand. Empirical evidence favouring a direct role for per-capita consumption demand in inflation determination for Canada is presented. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E5, E52, Q, Q4, Q43, Q5, Q58
The U.S. Stock Market and Fundamentals: A Historical Decomposition Staff Working Paper 2003-20 David Dupuis, David Tessier The authors identify the fundamentals behind the dynamics of the U.S. stock market over the past 30 years. They specify a structural vector-error-correction model following the methodology of King, Plosser, Stock, and Watson (1991). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1
Endogenous Credibility and Wage-Price Spirals Staff Working Paper 2024-14 Olena Kostyshyna, Tolga Özden, Yang Zhang We quantitively assess the risks of a wage-price spiral occurring in Canada over history. We find the risk of a wage-price spiral increases when the inflation expectations become unanchored and the credibility of central banks declines. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credibility, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E0, E00, E4, E47, E7
The Neutral Rate of Interest in Canada Staff Discussion Paper 2014-5 Rhys R. Mendes A measure of the neutral policy interest rate can be used to gauge the stance of monetary policy. We define the neutral rate as the real policy rate consistent with output at its potential level and inflation equal to target after the effects of all cyclical shocks have dissipated. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E42, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58