The Canadian Neutral Rate of Interest through the Lens of an Overlapping-Generations Model Staff discussion paper 2023-5 Martin Kuncl, Dmitry Matveev We use a small open economy model with overlapping generations to evaluate secular dynamics of the neutral rate in Canada from 1980 to 2018. We find that changes in both foreign and domestic factors resulted in a protracted decline in the neutral rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E22, E4, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Monetary Payoff and Utility Function in Adaptive Learning Models Staff working paper 2019-50 Erhao Xie When players repeatedly face an identical or similar game (e.g., coordination game, technology adoption game, or product choice game), they may learn through experience to perform better in the future. This learning behaviour has important economic implications. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C57, C7, C72, C9, C92 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models
Who Pays? CCP Resource Provision in the Post-Pittsburgh World Staff discussion paper 2017-17 Jorge Cruz Lopez, Mark Manning At the Pittsburgh Summit in 2009, G20 countries announced their commitment to clear all standardized over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives through central counterparties (CCPs). Since then, CCPs have become increasingly important and there has been an extensive program of regulatory enhancements to both them and OTC derivatives markets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Canada’s Experience with Trade Policy Staff discussion paper 2018-1 Karyne B. Charbonneau, Daniel de Munnik, Laura Murphy This paper compiles the contemporary view on three major Canadian-led trade policies that have marked Canada’s economic history since Confederation: the National Policy (1879), the Canada–US Agreement on Automotive Products (Auto Pact, 1965) and the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement (FTA, 1989, including its extension to the North American Free Trade Agreement, NAFTA, 1994). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, N, N7, N71, N72 Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
December 21, 2007 An Approach to Stress Testing the Canadian Mortgage Portfolio Financial System Review - December 2007 Moez Souissi Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
August 28, 2006 Productivity, Terms of Trade, and Economic Adjustment Remarks Pierre Duguay Canadian Association for Business Economics Kingston, Ontario The Bank of Canada is keenly interested in productivity - for a number of reasons. Productivity gains are a key determinant of growth in potential output and, hence, of Canada's sustainable pace of non-inflationary economic expansion. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
November 19, 2015 The Effect of Regulatory Changes on Monetary Policy Implementation Frameworks Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2015 Meyer Aaron, Annick Demers, Sean Durr This article provides an analysis of some recent banking regulatory initiatives that are likely to influence the activities of financial intermediaries and the effectiveness of central bank monetary policy implementation frameworks. Although the effects of individual regulations can be anticipated in most cases, the combined regulatory impact is not yet clear. Central banks should, however, be able to accommodate the effects of the emerging regulatory environment within their existing policy implementation frameworks. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, G, G2, G21, L, L5, L50
January 24, 2012 Sectoral Default Rates under Stress: The Importance of Non-Linearities Financial System Review - June 2007 Miroslav Misina, David Tessier Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
August 15, 2013 Monitoring Short-Term Economic Developments in Foreign Economies Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2013 Russell Barnett, Pierre Guérin The Bank of Canada uses several short-term forecasting models for the monitoring of key foreign economies - the United States, the euro area, Japan and China. The design of the forecasting models used for each region is influenced by the level of detail required, as well as the timeliness and volatility of data. Forecasts from different models are typically combined to mitigate model uncertainty, and judgment is applied to the model forecasts to incorporate information that is not directly reflected in the most recent indicators. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37
January 29, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—January 2025—In focus—Recent factors affecting the Canada-US exchange rate The Canadian dollar has declined against the US dollar since October 2024, mostly due to rising uncertainty around trade policies. A widening differential in policy interest rates between the two countries has also played a modest role.