The Dynamics of Capital Flow Episodes Staff working paper 2016-9 Christian Friedrich, Pierre Guérin This paper proposes a novel methodology for identifying episodes of strong capital flows based on a regime-switching model. In comparison with the existing literature, a key advantage of our methodology is to estimate capital flow regimes without the need for context- and sample-specific assumptions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F2, F21, F3, F32, G, G1, G11 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Should Bank Capital Regulation Be Risk Sensitive? Staff working paper 2018-48 Toni Ahnert, James Chapman, Carolyn A. Wilkins We present a simple model to study the risk sensitivity of capital regulation. A banker funds investment with uninsured deposits and costly capital, where capital resolves a moral hazard problem in the banker’s choice of risk. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight
February 8, 2016 Monetary Policy and Financial Stability—Looking for the Right Tools Remarks Timothy Lane HEC Montréal Montréal, Quebec Deputy Governor Tim Lane discusses the links between monetary policy and financial stability. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economic models, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
The Impact of Macroprudential Housing Finance Tools in Canada: 2005–10 Staff working paper 2016-41 Jason Allen, Timothy Grieder, Brian Peterson, Tom Roberts This paper combines loan-level administrative data with household-level survey data to analyze the impact of recent macroprudential policy changes in Canada using a microsimulation model of mortgage demand of first-time homebuyers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, D, D1, D14, G, G2, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Fiscal and Monetary Stabilization Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Consequences of Limited Foresight Staff working paper 2021-51 Michael Woodford, Yinxi Xie How do outcomes of monetary and fiscal stabilization policies at the zero lower bound change when decision makers have finite planning horizons in the economy? We explore the effects of limited foresight on policy tools and the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E6, E63, E7 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Real economy and forecasting
Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Is There an Allocation Puzzle? Staff working paper 2016-53 Josef Schroth Foreign direct investment inflows are positively related to growth across developing countries—but so are savings in excess of investment. I develop an explanation for this well-established puzzle by focusing on the limited availability of consumer credit in developing countries together with general equilibrium effects. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E2, E21, F, F4, F43 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Consumers’ Path to Mortgage Delinquency Staff analytical paper 2026-3 Laura Zhao, Jia Qi Xiao, Aidan Witts Analyzing TransUnion data from 2015–2024, this study identifies a systematic timeline of distress where rising credit utilization and non-mortgage arrears precede mortgage delinquency by up to two years. This deterioration intensifies in the final six months, providing a robust suite of high-frequency indicators for monitoring emerging household stress. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, G, G2, G21, G5, G51 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial system regulation and oversight, Household and business credit
From He-Cession to She-Stimulus? The Labor Market Impact of Fiscal Policy Across Gender Staff working paper 2021-42 Alica Ida Bonk, Laure Simon The effects of fiscal policy shocks on labour market outcomes across gender depend on the type of public expenditure. Women benefit most from increases in the government wage bill, while men are the main beneficiaries of higher investment spending. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E6, E62, J, J1, J16, J2, J21 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
The Share of Systematic Variations in the Canadian Dollar—Part II Staff analytical note 2017-1 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Guillaume Nolin This analytical note examines how much of the systematic variation in the Canadian dollar is attributable to its sensitivity to commodity prices. We introduce a new “oil” portfolio that captures systematic variations when the exchange rates of commodity exporters and commodity importers move in opposite directions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies
Sources of pandemic-era inflation in Canada: An application of the Bernanke and Blanchard model Staff analytical note 2024-13 Fares Bounajm, Jean Garry Junior Roc, Yang Zhang We explore the drivers of the surge in inflation in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic. This work is part of a joint effort by 11 central banks using the model developed by Bernanke and Blanchard (2023) to identify similarities and differences across economies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E31, E37, E5, E52, E6 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting