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3045 Results

Monetary Policy Implementation and Payment System Modernization

Staff Working Paper 2020-26 Jonathan Witmer
Canada plans to adopt a retail payment system to allow Canadians to pay in real time (or near real time) 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. However, the traditional model for setting the overnight interest rate does not operate 24/7.
May 19, 2011

Understanding and Measuring Liquidity Risk: A Selection of Recent Research

During the recent financial crisis, one of the forces set in motion by the initial losses on subprime-mortgage loans was a significant decline in the market liquidity of assets and in the ability of financial institutions to obtain funding in wholesale markets. In this article, the authors summarize recent research that clarifies the role of liquidity in destabilizing the financial system and examine the implications of this research for the recently announced financial system reforms, including Basel III.

Exchange Rate Fluctuations, Plant Turnover and Productivity

Staff Working Paper 2010-18 Ben Tomlin
In a small open economy fluctuations in the real exchange rate can affect plant turnover, and thus aggregate productivity, by altering the makeup of plants that populate the market. An appreciation of the local currency increases the level of competition in the domestic market as import competition intensifies and export opportunities shrink, forcing less productive plants from the market and compelling new entrants to be more competitive than they otherwise would have been.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Market structure and pricing, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D21, D24, L, L1, L11

Downward Nominal-Wage Rigidity: Micro Evidence from Tobit Models

Staff Working Paper 2001-7 Allan Crawford, Geoff Wright
This paper uses Tobit models and data for union contracts to examine the extent of downward nominal-wage rigidity in Canada. To be consistent with important stylized facts, the models allow the variance of the notional wage-change distribution to be time-varying and test for menu-cost effects.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation targets, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E5, E52, E6, E61

Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2023

We expect global potential output growth to increase from 2.5% in 2022 to 2.8% by 2026. Compared with the April 2022 staff assessment, global potential output growth is marginally slower. The current range for the US neutral rate is 2% to 3%, unchanged from the last annual assessment.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, E4, E5, F, F0, O, O4

Can Affine Term Structure Models Help Us Predict Exchange Rates?

Staff Working Paper 2006-27 Antonio Diez de los Rios
The author proposes an arbitrage-free model of the joint behaviour of interest and exchange rates whose exchange rate forecasts outperform those produced by a random-walk model, a vector autoregression on the forward premiums and the rate of depreciation, and the standard forward premium regression.

Effectiveness of Capital Controls in India: Evidence from the Offshore NDF Market

Staff Working Paper 2011-29 Michael Hutchison, Gurnain Pasricha, Nirvikar Singh
This paper examines the effectiveness of international capital controls in India over time by analyzing daily return differentials in the non-deliverable forward (NDF) markets using the self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) methodology.

Does Unconventional Monetary and Fiscal Policy Contribute to the COVID Inflation Surge in the US?

Staff Working Paper 2024-38 Jing Cynthia Wu, Yinxi Xie, Ji Zhang
We assess whether unconventional monetary and fiscal policy implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. contribute to the 2021-2023 inflation surge through the lens of several different empirical methodologies and establish a null result.
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