September 7, 2012 Dutch Disease Remarks Mark Carney Spruce Meadows Round Table Calgary, Alberta Governor Mark Carney discusses the impact of high commodity prices for the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2023 Staff Analytical Note 2023-5 Salma Ahmed, Aviel Avshalumov, Tania Chaar, Eshini Ekanayake, Helen Lao, Louis Poirier, Jenna Rolland-Mills, Argyn Toktamyssov, Lin Xiang We expect global potential output growth to increase from 2.5% in 2022 to 2.8% by 2026. Compared with the April 2022 staff assessment, global potential output growth is marginally slower. The current range for the US neutral rate is 2% to 3%, unchanged from the last annual assessment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, E4, E5, F, F0, O, O4
June 13, 2013 The Basel III Liquidity Standards: An Update Financial System Review - June 2013 Carolyn A. Wilkins, Tamara Gomes Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Do Low Interest Rates Sow the Seeds of Financial Crises? Staff Working Paper 2011-31 Simona Cociuba, Malik Shukayev, Alexander Ueberfeldt A view advanced in the aftermath of the late-2000s financial crisis is that lower than optimal interest rates lead to excessive risk taking by financial intermediaries. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D5, D53, E, E4, E44, E5, E52, G, G2, G28
The Role of Foreign Exchange Dealers in Providing Overnight Liquidity Staff Working Paper 2008-44 Chris D'Souza This paper illustrates that dealers in foreign exchange markets not only provide intraday liquidity, they are key participants in the provision of overnight liquidity. Dealing institutions receive compensation for holding undesired inventory balances in part from the information they receive in customer trades. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, F, F3, F31, G, G2, G21
Estimating the impacts on GDP of natural disasters in Canada Staff Analytical Note 2025-5 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Thibaut Duprey, Craig Johnston Extreme weather events contribute to increased volatility in both economic activity and prices, interfering with the assessment of the true underlying trends of the economy. With this in mind, we conduct a timely assessment of the impact of natural disasters on Canadian gross domestic product (GDP). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Climate change, Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods, Fiscal policy, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): B, B2, B23, C, C1, C13, C2, C23, E, E1, E17, E3, E37, E6, E62, H, H6
Perhaps the FOMC Did What It Said It Did: An Alternative Interpretation of the Great Inflation Staff Working Paper 2007-19 Sharon Kozicki, P. A. Tinsley This paper uses real-time briefing forecasts prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to provide estimates of historical changes in the design of U.S. monetary policy and in the implied central-bank target for inflation. Empirical results support a description of policy with an effective inflation target of roughly 7 percent in the 1970s. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Monetary aggregates, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E3, E5, N, N1
February 9, 2022 The role of Canadian business in fostering non-inflationary growth Remarks (delivered virtually) Tiff Macklem Canadian Chamber of Commerce Ottawa, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how business investment and stronger productivity are vital to sustaining non-inflationary economic growth. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Expectations, Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments
What Can Earnings Calls Tell Us About the Output Gap and Inflation in Canada? Staff Discussion Paper 2023-13 Marc-André Gosselin, Temel Taskin We construct new indicators of demand and supply for the Canadian economy by using natural language processing techniques to analyze earnings calls of publicly listed firms. Our results indicate that the new indicators could help central banks identify inflationary pressures in real time. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C1, C3, E, E3, E5
December 22, 2003 Current Account Imbalances: Some Key Issues for the Major Industrialized Countries Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2003-2004 Jocelyn Jacob The resurgence of sizable current account imbalances in the major economies in recent years, particularly the tripling of the U.S. deficit, has led to renewed academic and public discussions about their sustainability. Jacob's main objective is to show that current account balances are simply the outcome of various relative structural and cyclical forces between trading partners. He reviews the factors behind the changes in the current account positions of the three largest industrial economies (the United States, Japan, and the euro area). Two strong determinants shaping the current account balances are the faster increase in U.S. productivity compared with that of other major economies and, more recently, the loosening in the U.S. fiscal stance. Jacob also reviews a range of outside assessments from such sources as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the International Monetary Fund, as well as the academic literature, to determine the possible risks to macroeconomic and financial stability. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, International topics