Firm Inattention and the Efficacy of Monetary Policy: A Text-Based Approach Staff working paper 2022-3 Wenting Song, Samuel Stern How much attention do firms pay to macroeconomic news? Through a novel text-based measure, two facts emerge. First, attention is polarized. Most firms either never or always pay attention to economic conditions. Second, it is countercyclical. During recessions, more firms pay attention, and firms pay greater attention to macroeconomic news. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E44, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
January 29, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—January 2025—In focus—Recent factors affecting the Canada-US exchange rate The Canadian dollar has declined against the US dollar since October 2024, mostly due to rising uncertainty around trade policies. A widening differential in policy interest rates between the two countries has also played a modest role.
How do Canadian Corporate Bond Mutual Funds Meet Investor Redemptions? Staff analytical note 2018-14 Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Rohan Arora When investors redeem their fund shares for cash, fixed-income fund managers can choose whether to draw on their liquid holdings or sell bonds in the secondary market. We analyze the liquidity-management decisions of Canadian corporate bond mutual funds, focusing on the strategies they use to meet investor redemptions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): G, G1, G2, G20, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Is There an Allocation Puzzle? Staff working paper 2016-53 Josef Schroth Foreign direct investment inflows are positively related to growth across developing countries—but so are savings in excess of investment. I develop an explanation for this well-established puzzle by focusing on the limited availability of consumer credit in developing countries together with general equilibrium effects. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E2, E21, F, F4, F43 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
From He-Cession to She-Stimulus? The Labor Market Impact of Fiscal Policy Across Gender Staff working paper 2021-42 Alica Ida Bonk, Laure Simon The effects of fiscal policy shocks on labour market outcomes across gender depend on the type of public expenditure. Women benefit most from increases in the government wage bill, while men are the main beneficiaries of higher investment spending. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E6, E62, J, J1, J16, J2, J21 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Understanding Monetary Policy and its Effects: Evidence from Canadian Firms Using the Business Outlook Survey Staff working paper 2017-24 Matthieu Verstraete, Lena Suchanek This paper shows (i) that business sentiment, as captured by survey data, matters for monetary policy decisions in Canada, and (ii) how business perspectives are affected by monetary policy shocks. Measures of business sentiment (soft data) are shown to have systematic explanatory power for monetary policy decisions over and above typical Taylor rule variables. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, E, E4, E44, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Real economy and forecasting
Consumers’ Path to Mortgage Delinquency Staff analytical paper 2026-3 Laura Zhao, Jia Qi Xiao, Aidan Witts Analyzing TransUnion data from 2015–2024, this study identifies a systematic timeline of distress where rising credit utilization and non-mortgage arrears precede mortgage delinquency by up to two years. This deterioration intensifies in the final six months, providing a robust suite of high-frequency indicators for monitoring emerging household stress. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, G, G2, G21, G5, G51 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial system regulation and oversight, Household and business credit
Sources of pandemic-era inflation in Canada: An application of the Bernanke and Blanchard model Staff analytical note 2024-13 Fares Bounajm, Jean Garry Junior Roc, Yang Zhang We explore the drivers of the surge in inflation in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic. This work is part of a joint effort by 11 central banks using the model developed by Bernanke and Blanchard (2023) to identify similarities and differences across economies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E31, E37, E5, E52, E6 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
April 5, 2016 China’s Great Transition: What It Means for Canada Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Greater Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins discusses the risks and opportunities for Canada of China’s economic transition. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth
Do Monetary Policy Shocks Affect the Neutral Rate of Interest? Staff working paper 2026-6 Danilo Leiva-Leon, Rodrigo Sekkel, Luis Uzeda Can monetary policy influence the neutral real interest rate (r-star)? Using a new statistical model, we show that interest rate hikes tend to lower r-star and long-run growth, but that monetary policy explains only a small share of the long-run decline in r-star. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C51, E, E3, E32, E4, E44 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation