December 22, 2003 Current Account Imbalances: Some Key Issues for the Major Industrialized Countries Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2003-2004 Jocelyn Jacob The resurgence of sizable current account imbalances in the major economies in recent years, particularly the tripling of the U.S. deficit, has led to renewed academic and public discussions about their sustainability. Jacob's main objective is to show that current account balances are simply the outcome of various relative structural and cyclical forces between trading partners. He reviews the factors behind the changes in the current account positions of the three largest industrial economies (the United States, Japan, and the euro area). Two strong determinants shaping the current account balances are the faster increase in U.S. productivity compared with that of other major economies and, more recently, the loosening in the U.S. fiscal stance. Jacob also reviews a range of outside assessments from such sources as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the International Monetary Fund, as well as the academic literature, to determine the possible risks to macroeconomic and financial stability. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, International topics
Impact of Electronic Trading Platforms on the Brokered Interdealer Market for Government of Canada Benchmark Bonds Staff Working Paper 2007-5 Natasha Khan This study examines the impact of increased transparency, brought about by the introduction of three electronic trading systems, on the brokered interdealer market for Government of Canada benchmark securities. Using the CanPX dataset for the 2-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year benchmarks, the paper finds some evidence of decreased bid-ask spreads for the 30-year benchmark in the months following the introduction of the electronic platforms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G14
Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2023 Staff Analytical Note 2023-5 Salma Ahmed, Aviel Avshalumov, Tania Chaar, Eshini Ekanayake, Helen Lao, Louis Poirier, Jenna Rolland-Mills, Argyn Toktamyssov, Lin Xiang We expect global potential output growth to increase from 2.5% in 2022 to 2.8% by 2026. Compared with the April 2022 staff assessment, global potential output growth is marginally slower. The current range for the US neutral rate is 2% to 3%, unchanged from the last annual assessment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, E4, E5, F, F0, O, O4
Amazon Effects in Canadian Online Retail Firm-Product-Level Data Staff Working Paper 2019-42 Alex Chernoff I use firm-product-level data for Canadian online retailers to study how product scope (the average number of product categories per firm) evolved from 1999 to 2012. During this period, product scope dropped monotonically from 59 to 5 product categories. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Service sector JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, L, L1, L11, L8, L81
What to Target? Insights from a Lab Experiment Staff Working Paper 2021-53 Isabelle Salle In a laboratory experiment, we ask participants to predict inflation using three different policy regimes: inflation targeting—with and without greater communication of the target—average inflation targeting and price level targeting. We use participants’ predictions to compare the level and stability of inflation under each regime. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation targets, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E7
Effectiveness of Capital Controls in India: Evidence from the Offshore NDF Market Staff Working Paper 2011-29 Michael Hutchison, Gurnain Pasricha, Nirvikar Singh This paper examines the effectiveness of international capital controls in India over time by analyzing daily return differentials in the non-deliverable forward (NDF) markets using the self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) methodology. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F32, G, G1, G15
November 19, 2010 Has Exchange Rate Pass-Through Really Declined? Some Recent Insights from the Literature Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2010 Jeannine Bailliu, Wei Dong, John Murray Building on an earlier Review article, the authors critically reassess the premise that exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) has declined in light of recent studies of the issue in the context of a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium framework. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Economic models, Exchange rates, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy framework
August 24, 2004 Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2004 Cover page Promissory Note, 1712 The note measures 28 cm x 16 cm and forms part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada. Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
February 1, 2012 Recent Developments in Markets for Credit-Risk Transfer Financial System Review - June 2003 John Kiff Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Estimated DGE Models and Forecasting Accuracy: A Preliminary Investigation with Canadian Data Staff Working Paper 2002-18 Kevin Moran, Veronika Dolar This paper applies the hybrid dynamic general-equilibrium, vector autoregressive (DGE-VAR) model developed by Ireland (1999) to Canadian time series. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E37