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3045 Results

From Micro to Macro Hysteresis: Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy

Staff Working Paper 2024-39 Felipe Alves, Giovanni L. Violante
We explore the long-run effects of a monetary policy shock in a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model built on the micro evidence that job losses lead to persistently lower individual earnings through a combination of skill decay and abandonment of the labour force.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E24, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52, J, J2, J24, J6, J64

Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2023

We expect global potential output growth to increase from 2.5% in 2022 to 2.8% by 2026. Compared with the April 2022 staff assessment, global potential output growth is marginally slower. The current range for the US neutral rate is 2% to 3%, unchanged from the last annual assessment.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, E4, E5, F, F0, O, O4

The Ex-Ante Versus Ex-Post Effect of Public Guarantees

Staff Working Paper 2012-22 H. Evren Damar, Reint Gropp, Adi Mordel
In October 2006, Dominion Bond Rating Service (DBRS) introduced new ratings for banks that account for the potential of government support. The rating changes are not a reflection of any changes in the respective banks’ credit fundamentals.

The Turning Black Tide: Energy Prices and the Canadian Dollar

Staff Working Paper 2006-29 Ramzi Issa, Robert Lafrance, John Murray
The authors revisit the relationship between energy prices and the Canadian dollar in the Amano and van Norden (1995) equation, which shows a negative relationship such that higher real energy prices lead to a depreciation of the Canadian dollar.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31

Adopting Price-Level Targeting under Imperfect Credibility in ToTEM

Using the Bank of Canada's main projection and policy-analysis model, ToTEM, this paper measures the welfare gains of switching from inflation targeting to price-level targeting under imperfect credibility. Following the policy change, private agents assign a probability to the event that the policy-maker will revert to inflation-targeting next period.
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