Non-Parametric and Neural Network Models of Inflation Changes Staff Working Paper 2000-7 Greg Tkacz Previous studies have shown that interest rate yield spreads contain useful information about future changes in inflation. However, such studies have for the most part focused on linear models, ignoring potential non-linearities between interest rates and inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, E, E3, E31
Information Shocks, Jumps, and Price Discovery - Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market Staff Working Paper 2008-22 George Jiang, Ingrid Lo, Adrien Verdelhan We examine large price changes, known as jumps, in the U.S. Treasury market. Using recently developed statistical tools, we identify price jumps in the 2-, 3-, 5-, 10-year notes and 30-year bond during the period of 2005-2006. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G14
May 13, 2014 Beyond the Unemployment Rate: Assessing Canadian and U.S. Labour Markets Since the Great Recession Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2014 Konrad Zmitrowicz, Mikael Khan This article provides a broad perspective on the performance of the labour market in Canada and the United States since the Great Recession. It also presents a simple way to summarize much of this information in a single composite labour market indicator (LMI) for both countries. The LMI suggests that the unemployment rate in Canada has evolved largely in line with overall labour market conditions since the recession, but may have modestly overstated the extent of recent improvement. The U.S. unemployment rate, in contrast, appears to have substantially overstated the post-recession improvement in labour market conditions. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): International topics, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J23
February 9, 2022 The role of Canadian business in fostering non-inflationary growth Remarks (delivered virtually) Tiff Macklem Canadian Chamber of Commerce Ottawa, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how business investment and stronger productivity are vital to sustaining non-inflationary economic growth. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Expectations, Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments
Does US or Canadian Macro News Drive Canadian Bond Yields? Staff Analytical Note 2018-38 Bruno Feunou, Rodrigo Sekkel, Morvan Nongni-Donfack We show that a large share of low-frequency (quarterly) movements in Canadian government bond yields can be explained by macroeconomic news, even though high-frequency (daily) changes are driven by other shocks. Furthermore, we show that US macro news—not domestic news— explains most of the quarterly variation in Canadian bond yields. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Financial markets, International topics, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E4, E43
The International Monetary Fund's Balance-Sheet and Credit Risk Staff Working Paper 2006-21 Ryan Felushko, Eric Santor The authors examine the characteristics of International Monetary Fund (IMF) lending from the 1960s to 2005. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3
Education and Self-Employment: Changes in Earnings and Wealth Inequality Staff Working Paper 2006-40 Yaz Terajima The author quantitatively studies the interaction between education and occupation choices and its implication for the relationship between the changes in earnings inequality and the changes in wealth inequality in the United States over the 1983–2001 period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Labour markets JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, I, I2, I21, J, J2, J23
Macroeconomic Experiences and Risk Taking of Euro Area Households Staff Working Paper 2014-10 Miguel Ampudia, Michael Ehrmann This paper studies to what extent the experiences of households shape their willingness to take financial risks. It follows the methodology of Malmendier and Nagel (2011) and applies it to a novel data set on household finances covering euro area households. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): D, D0, D03, D1, D14, D8, D83, G, G1, G11
Impact of Electronic Trading Platforms on the Brokered Interdealer Market for Government of Canada Benchmark Bonds Staff Working Paper 2007-5 Natasha Khan This study examines the impact of increased transparency, brought about by the introduction of three electronic trading systems, on the brokered interdealer market for Government of Canada benchmark securities. Using the CanPX dataset for the 2-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year benchmarks, the paper finds some evidence of decreased bid-ask spreads for the 30-year benchmark in the months following the introduction of the electronic platforms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G14
What to Target? Insights from a Lab Experiment Staff Working Paper 2021-53 Isabelle Salle In a laboratory experiment, we ask participants to predict inflation using three different policy regimes: inflation targeting—with and without greater communication of the target—average inflation targeting and price level targeting. We use participants’ predictions to compare the level and stability of inflation under each regime. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation targets, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E7