Macroeconomic Predictions Using Payments Data and Machine Learning Staff working paper 2022-10 James Chapman, Ajit Desai We demonstrate the usefulness of payment systems data and machine learning models for macroeconomic predictions and provide a set of econometric tools to overcome associated challenges. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37, E4, E42, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Money and payments, Retail payments
How Do Interest Rates Spur the Housing Market: Exploring Nonlinear Effects Staff analytical paper 2026-35 Benjamin Straus, Stéphane Surprenant, Kerem Tuzcuoglu In this note we examine how monetary policy affects housing demand, supply and prices in Canada, and whether these effects vary with labour market conditions Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E5, E52, R, R3, R31 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
The Heterogeneous Effects of COVID-19 on Canadian Household Consumption, Debt and Savings Staff working paper 2020-51 James (Jim) C. MacGee, Thomas Michael Pugh, Kurt See The impact of COVID-19 on Canadian households’ debt and unplanned savings varies by household income. Low-income and high-income households accrued unplanned savings, while middle-income households tended to accumulate more debt. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E24, G, G5, G51 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Uncovered Return Parity: Equity Returns and Currency Returns Staff working paper 2018-22 Edouard Djeutem, Geoffrey R. Dunbar We propose an uncovered expected returns parity (URP) condition for the bilateral spot exchange rate. URP implies that unilateral exchange rate equations are misspecified and that equity returns also affect exchange rates. Fama regressions provide evidence that URP is statistically preferred to uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) for nominal bilateral exchange rates between the US dollar and six countries (Australia, Canada, Japan, Norway, Switzerland and the UK) at the monthly frequency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Market functioning, Market structure, Models and tools, Economic models
The Global Benefits of Low Oil Prices: More Than Meets the Eye Staff analytical note 2016-13 Robert Fay, Justin-Damien Guénette, Louis Morel Between mid-2014 and early 2016, oil prices fell by roughly 65 per cent. This note documents the channels through which this oil price decline is expected to affect the global economy. One important and immediate channel is through higher expenditures, especially in net oil-importing countries. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E37, F, F0, F01, Q, Q4, Q43 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Let’s Get Physical: Impacts of Climate Change Physical Risks on Provincial Employment Staff working paper 2024-32 Thibaut Duprey, Soojin Jo, Geneviève Vallée We analyze 40 years’ worth of natural disasters using a local projection framework to assess their impact on provincial labour markets in Canada. We find that disasters decrease hours worked within a week and lower wage growth in the medium run. Our study highlights that disasters affect vulnerable workers through the income channel. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, E, E2, E24, J, J3, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Climate change, Demographics and labour supply
Reassessing Trade Barriers with Global Value Chains Staff working paper 2019-19 Yuko Imura This paper provides a systematic, quantitative analysis of the short-run and long-run effects of various trade-restricting policies in the presence of global value chains and multinational production. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F12, F13, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
August 4, 2010 Fellowship Award Annual research grants and expense allowances for a term of up to five years.
Canadian Bitcoin Ownership in 2023: Key Takeaways Staff discussion paper 2025-4 Daniela Balutel, Marie-Hélène Felt, Doina Rusu The Bitcoin Omnibus Survey is an important tool for monitoring Canadians’ awareness and ownership of bitcoin and other cryptoassets over time. In this paper, we present data highlights from the 2023 survey. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C8, C81, E, E4, O, O5, O51 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
A Structural Interpretation of the Recent Weakness in Business Investment Staff analytical note 2017-7 Russell Barnett, Rhys R. Mendes Since 2012, business investment growth has slowed considerably in advanced economies, averaging a little less than 2 per cent versus the 4 per cent growth rates experienced in the period leading up to crisis. Several recent studies have attributed a large part of the weakness in business investment to cyclical factors, including soft aggregate demand, and, to a lesser degree, heightened uncertainty and tighter financial conditions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply