Assessing Global Potential Output Growth Staff Analytical Note 2017-3 Patrick Alexander, Michael Francis, Christopher Hajzler, Patrick Kirby, Louis Poirier, Sri Thanabalasingam, Kristina Hess This note estimates potential output growth for the global economy through 2019. While there is considerable uncertainty surrounding our estimates, overall we expect global potential output growth to rise modestly, from 3.1 per cent in 2016 to 3.4 per cent in 2019. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4
May 16, 2013 Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2013 This issue includes analysis of the unconventional monetary policies recently implemented by central banks, and also presents Bank research in two areas - the migration of labour between economic regions in Canada, and the asset-allocation and funding decisions for Canada’s foreign exchange reserves. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
Core Inflation Technical Report No. 89 Seamus Hogan, Marianne Johnson, Thérèse Laflèche The Bank of Canada uses core CPI inflation, the year-over-year rate of change of the consumer price index excluding food, energy, and the effects of changes in indirect taxes, as the operational guide for monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31
The Causal Impact of Migration on US Trade: Evidence from Political Refugees Staff Working Paper 2017-49 Walter Steingress Immigrants can increase international trade by shifting preferences towards the goods of their country of origin and by reducing bilateral transaction costs. Using geographical variation across U.S. states for the period 2008 to 2013, I estimate the respective causal impact of immigrants on U.S. exports and imports. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): F, F1, F14, F2, F22, J, J6, J61
The Ex-Ante Versus Ex-Post Effect of Public Guarantees Staff Working Paper 2012-22 H. Evren Damar, Reint Gropp, Adi Mordel In October 2006, Dominion Bond Rating Service (DBRS) introduced new ratings for banks that account for the potential of government support. The rating changes are not a reflection of any changes in the respective banks’ credit fundamentals. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G28, G3, G32
February 23, 2012 Household Borrowing and Spending in Canada Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2011-2012 Jeannine Bailliu, Katya Kartashova, Césaire Meh Understanding how much of the increased debt load of Canadian households has been used to finance household spending on consumption and home renovation is important for the conduct of monetary policy. In this article, the authors use a comprehensive data set that provides information on the uses of debt by Canadian households. They first present some facts regarding the evolution of Canadian household debt over the period from 1999 to 2010, emphasizing the increased importance of debt flows that are secured by housing. They then explore how Canadian households have used their borrowed funds over the same period, and assess the role of these borrowed funds in financing total consumption and spending on home renovation. Finally, they examine the possible effects of a decline in house prices on consumption when housing equity is used as collateral against household indebtedness. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Domestic demand and components, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E5, E51, H, H3, H31
Finance Constraints and Inventory Investment: Empirical Tests with Panel Data Staff Working Paper 2004-38 Rose Cunningham The author empirically tests two aspects of the interaction between financial variables and inventory investment: negative cash flow and finance constraints due to asymmetric information. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Financial institutions JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, G, G1, G14
Financial Frictions, Durable Goods and Monetary Policy Staff Working Paper 2019-31 Ugochi Emenogu, Leo Michelis Financial frictions affect how much consumers spend on durable and non-durable goods. Borrowers can face both loan-to-value (LTV) constraints and payment-to-income (PTI) constraints. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52
February 1, 2012 Valuation of Canadian- versus U.S.-Listed Equities: Is There a Discount? Financial System Review - December 2003 Michael R. King, Dan Segal Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
June 11, 2015 Canadian Open-End Mutual Funds: An Assessment of Potential Vulnerabilities Financial System Review - June 2015 Sandra Ramirez, Jesus Sierra, Jonathan Witmer The authors examine the liquidity and leverage characteristics of Canadian long-term, open-end mutual funds in terms of their potential systemic effects on the Canadian mutual fund sector and on the Canadian financial system more broadly. In their overall assessment of this sector, they consider the regulation, market size and ownership structure of mutual funds in Canada and provide observations about the industry globally. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G2, G23, G28