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2129 Results

Let’s Get Physical: Impacts of Climate Change Physical Risks on Provincial Employment

Staff working paper 2024-32 Thibaut Duprey, Soojin Jo, Geneviève Vallée
We analyze 40 years’ worth of natural disasters using a local projection framework to assess their impact on provincial labour markets in Canada. We find that disasters decrease hours worked within a week and lower wage growth in the medium run. Our study highlights that disasters affect vulnerable workers through the income channel.

High-Frequency Cross-Sectional Identification of Military News Shocks

Staff working paper 2025-27 Francesco Amodeo, Edoardo Briganti
We identify and quantify fiscal news shocks, compiling events (2001–2023) that altered the expected path of U.S. defense expenditure. For each event, we estimate market-implied shifts in expected spending. A shift-share analysis yields a two-year, metropolitan statistical area–level GDP multiplier of approximately 1 for U.S. military build-ups.

A Structural Interpretation of the Recent Weakness in Business Investment

Staff analytical note 2017-7 Russell Barnett, Rhys R. Mendes
Since 2012, business investment growth has slowed considerably in advanced economies, averaging a little less than 2 per cent versus the 4 per cent growth rates experienced in the period leading up to crisis. Several recent studies have attributed a large part of the weakness in business investment to cyclical factors, including soft aggregate demand, and, to a lesser degree, heightened uncertainty and tighter financial conditions.

Fragility of Resale Markets for Securitized Assets and Policy of Asset Purchases

Staff working paper 2016-46 Martin Kuncl
Markets for securitized assets were characterized by high liquidity prior to the recent financial crisis and by a sudden market dry-up at the onset of the crisis. A general equilibrium model with heterogeneous investment opportunities and information frictions predicts that, in boom periods or mild recessions, the degree of adverse selection in resale markets for securitized assets is limited because of the reputation-based guarantees by asset originators.

Reassessing Trade Barriers with Global Value Chains

Staff working paper 2019-19 Yuko Imura
This paper provides a systematic, quantitative analysis of the short-run and long-run effects of various trade-restricting policies in the presence of global value chains and multinational production.

Monetary Policy Uncertainty: A Tale of Two Tails

Staff working paper 2018-50 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Tatevik Sekhposyan
We document a strong asymmetry in the evolution of federal funds rate expectations and map this observed asymmetry into measures of monetary policy uncertainty. We show that periods of monetary policy tightening and easing are distinctly related to downside (policy rate is higher than expected) and upside (policy rate is lower than expected) uncertainty.
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