How Do Agents Form Macroeconomic Expectations? Evidence from Inflation Uncertainty Staff working paper 2024-5 Tao Wang The uncertainty regarding inflation that is observed in density forecasts of households and professionals helps macroeconomists understand the formation mechanism of inflation expectations. Shocks to inflation take time to be perceived by all agents in the economy, and such rigidity is lower in a high-inflation environment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D84, E, E3, E31, E7, E71 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Non-competing Data Intermediaries Staff working paper 2020-28 Shota Ichihashi I study a model of competing data intermediaries (e.g., online platforms and data brokers) that collect personal data from consumers and sell it to downstream firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, D42, D43, D8, D80, L, L1, L12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Models and tools, Economic models, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
June 22, 2011 Access to Central Clearing Services for Over-the-Counter Derivatives Financial System Review - June 2011 Carolyn A. Wilkins, Jonathan Witmer, Joshua Slive Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Let’s Get Physical: Impacts of Climate Change Physical Risks on Provincial Employment Staff working paper 2024-32 Thibaut Duprey, Soojin Jo, Geneviève Vallée We analyze 40 years’ worth of natural disasters using a local projection framework to assess their impact on provincial labour markets in Canada. We find that disasters decrease hours worked within a week and lower wage growth in the medium run. Our study highlights that disasters affect vulnerable workers through the income channel. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, E, E2, E24, J, J3, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Climate change, Demographics and labour supply
Can the Business Outlook Survey Help Improve Estimates of the Canadian Output Gap? Staff discussion paper 2020-14 Calista Cheung, Luke Frymire, Lise Pichette We investigate whether questions in the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey can provide useful signals for the output gap. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E3 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Reassessing Trade Barriers with Global Value Chains Staff working paper 2019-19 Yuko Imura This paper provides a systematic, quantitative analysis of the short-run and long-run effects of various trade-restricting policies in the presence of global value chains and multinational production. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F12, F13, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
March 14, 2019 The Age of Leverage Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins UBC Vancouver School of Economics and CFA Society Vancouver Vancouver, British Columbia Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses how high leverage is both a headwind to global growth and a vulnerability in the global financial system. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economic models, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation
Monetary Policy Uncertainty: A Tale of Two Tails Staff working paper 2018-50 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Tatevik Sekhposyan We document a strong asymmetry in the evolution of federal funds rate expectations and map this observed asymmetry into measures of monetary policy uncertainty. We show that periods of monetary policy tightening and easing are distinctly related to downside (policy rate is higher than expected) and upside (policy rate is lower than expected) uncertainty. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C18, C3, C32, E, E0, E02, E4, E43, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Real economy and forecasting
April 24, 2005 Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2005 Cover page Moroccan Coin Moulds This bronze mould from Morocco is part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada. Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
Uncovered Return Parity: Equity Returns and Currency Returns Staff working paper 2018-22 Edouard Djeutem, Geoffrey R. Dunbar We propose an uncovered expected returns parity (URP) condition for the bilateral spot exchange rate. URP implies that unilateral exchange rate equations are misspecified and that equity returns also affect exchange rates. Fama regressions provide evidence that URP is statistically preferred to uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) for nominal bilateral exchange rates between the US dollar and six countries (Australia, Canada, Japan, Norway, Switzerland and the UK) at the monthly frequency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Market functioning, Market structure, Models and tools, Economic models