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2139 Results

The Global Benefits of Low Oil Prices: More Than Meets the Eye

Staff analytical note 2016-13 Robert Fay, Justin-Damien Guénette, Louis Morel
Between mid-2014 and early 2016, oil prices fell by roughly 65 per cent. This note documents the channels through which this oil price decline is expected to affect the global economy. One important and immediate channel is through higher expenditures, especially in net oil-importing countries.

Monetary Policy Uncertainty: A Tale of Two Tails

Staff working paper 2018-50 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Tatevik Sekhposyan
We document a strong asymmetry in the evolution of federal funds rate expectations and map this observed asymmetry into measures of monetary policy uncertainty. We show that periods of monetary policy tightening and easing are distinctly related to downside (policy rate is higher than expected) and upside (policy rate is lower than expected) uncertainty.

How Do Agents Form Macroeconomic Expectations? Evidence from Inflation Uncertainty

Staff working paper 2024-5 Tao Wang
The uncertainty regarding inflation that is observed in density forecasts of households and professionals helps macroeconomists understand the formation mechanism of inflation expectations. Shocks to inflation take time to be perceived by all agents in the economy, and such rigidity is lower in a high-inflation environment.

Improving the Efficiency of Payments Systems Using Quantum Computing

We develop an algorithm and run it on a hybrid quantum annealing solver to find an ordering of payments that reduces the amount of system liquidity necessary without substantially increasing payment delays.

High-Frequency Cross-Sectional Identification of Military News Shocks

Staff working paper 2025-27 Francesco Amodeo, Edoardo Briganti
We identify and quantify fiscal news shocks, compiling events (2001–2023) that altered the expected path of U.S. defense expenditure. For each event, we estimate market-implied shifts in expected spending. A shift-share analysis yields a two-year, metropolitan statistical area–level GDP multiplier of approximately 1 for U.S. military build-ups.

Non-competing Data Intermediaries

Staff working paper 2020-28 Shota Ichihashi
I study a model of competing data intermediaries (e.g., online platforms and data brokers) that collect personal data from consumers and sell it to downstream firms.
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