The Trend Unemployment Rate in Canada: Searching for the Unobservable Staff working paper 2019-13 Dany Brouillette, Marie-Noëlle Robitaille, Laurence Savoie-Chabot, Pierre St-Amant, Bassirou Gueye, Elise Nelson In this paper, we assess several methods that have been used to measure the Canadian trend unemployment rate (TUR). We also consider improvements and extensions to some existing methods. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, C53, E, E2, E24, E27 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
December 8, 2006 Perspectives on Productivity and Potential Output Growth: A Summary of the Joint Banque de France/Bank of Canada Workshop, 24–25 April 2006 Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2006-2007 Gilbert Cette, Donald Coletti A nation's productivity is the prime determinant of its real incomes and standard of living, as well as being a major determinant of its potential output. In the short run, deviations of actual output from potential output are a useful indicator of inflationary pressures. This article is a short summary of the proceedings of the workshop, which focus on productivity and potential output growth among industrialized countries. The research is organized under three main themes: estimating potential growth; productivity and growth; and institutions, policies, and growth. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
We Didn’t Start the Fire: Effects of a Natural Disaster on Consumers’ Financial Distress Staff working paper 2023-15 Anson T. Y. Ho, Kim Huynh, David T. Jacho-Chávez, Geneviève Vallée We use detailed consumer credit data to investigate the impact of the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire, the costliest wildfire disaster in Canadian history, on consumers’ financial stress. We focus on the arrears of insured mortgages because of their important implications for financial institutions and insurers’ business risk and relevant management practices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, D, D1, D12, G, G2, G21, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Structural challenges, Climate change
Nowcasting Canadian GDP with Density Combinations Staff discussion paper 2022-12 Tony Chernis, Taylor Webley We present a tool for creating density nowcasts for Canadian real GDP growth. We demonstrate that the combined densities are a reliable and accurate tool for assessing the state of the economy and risks to the outlook. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, C53, E, E3, E7 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
November 17, 2016 Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2016 What is the role of central banks in financial stability? How has this role changed in recent years? Bank researchers share their insights on this matter and provide an overview of recent changes the Bank has made to its Emergency Lending Assistance Policy. Researchers also provide a history of four major commodity supercycles, dating back to the early 1900s. Finally, there is discussion about structural reforms in emerging-market economies, such as China, and how these reforms influence potential growth. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
International Economic Sanctions and Third-Country Effects Staff working paper 2023-46 Fabio Ghironi, Daisoon Kim, Galip Kemal Ozhan We study the transmission and third-country effects of international sanctions. A sanctioned country’s losses are mitigated, and the sanctioning country’s losses amplified, if a third country does not join the sanctions, but the third country benefits from not joining. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F4, F41, F42, F5, F51 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Differentiable, Filter Free Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models Using Mixture Density Networks Staff working paper 2025-3 Chris Naubert I develop a method for Bayesian estimation of globally solved, non-linear macroeconomic models. The method uses a mixture density network to approximate the initial state distribution. The mixture density network results in more reliable posterior inference compared with the case when the initial states are set to their steady-state values. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, C63, E, E3, E37, E4, E47 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models
DeFi Lending: Returns, Leverage, and Liquidation Risk Staff analytical paper 2026-13 Jonathan Chiu, Furkan Danisman DeFi lending with proper governance is operationally viable, but it also faces constraints related to capital efficiency, liquidation risk, and systemic fragility within the crypto ecosystem. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E58 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
How Do Agents Form Macroeconomic Expectations? Evidence from Inflation Uncertainty Staff working paper 2024-5 Tao Wang The uncertainty regarding inflation that is observed in density forecasts of households and professionals helps macroeconomists understand the formation mechanism of inflation expectations. Shocks to inflation take time to be perceived by all agents in the economy, and such rigidity is lower in a high-inflation environment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D84, E, E3, E31, E7, E71 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Canadian Bitcoin Ownership in 2023: Key Takeaways Staff discussion paper 2025-4 Daniela Balutel, Marie-Hélène Felt, Doina Rusu The Bitcoin Omnibus Survey is an important tool for monitoring Canadians’ awareness and ownership of bitcoin and other cryptoassets over time. In this paper, we present data highlights from the 2023 survey. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C8, C81, E, E4, O, O5, O51 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech