Nowcasting Canadian GDP with Density Combinations Staff discussion paper 2022-12 Tony Chernis, Taylor Webley We present a tool for creating density nowcasts for Canadian real GDP growth. We demonstrate that the combined densities are a reliable and accurate tool for assessing the state of the economy and risks to the outlook. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, C53, E, E3, E7 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
We Didn’t Start the Fire: Effects of a Natural Disaster on Consumers’ Financial Distress Staff working paper 2023-15 Anson T. Y. Ho, Kim Huynh, David T. Jacho-Chávez, Geneviève Vallée We use detailed consumer credit data to investigate the impact of the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire, the costliest wildfire disaster in Canadian history, on consumers’ financial stress. We focus on the arrears of insured mortgages because of their important implications for financial institutions and insurers’ business risk and relevant management practices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, D, D1, D12, G, G2, G21, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Structural challenges, Climate change
Can the Business Outlook Survey Help Improve Estimates of the Canadian Output Gap? Staff discussion paper 2020-14 Calista Cheung, Luke Frymire, Lise Pichette We investigate whether questions in the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey can provide useful signals for the output gap. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E3 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
November 17, 2016 Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2016 What is the role of central banks in financial stability? How has this role changed in recent years? Bank researchers share their insights on this matter and provide an overview of recent changes the Bank has made to its Emergency Lending Assistance Policy. Researchers also provide a history of four major commodity supercycles, dating back to the early 1900s. Finally, there is discussion about structural reforms in emerging-market economies, such as China, and how these reforms influence potential growth. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
December 14, 2009 Liquidity Standards in a Macroprudential Context Financial System Review - December 2009 Carol Ann Northcott, Mark Zelmer Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Improving the Efficiency of Payments Systems Using Quantum Computing Staff working paper 2022-53 Christopher McMahon, Donald McGillivray, Ajit Desai, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Jean-Paul Lam, Thomas Lo, Danica Marsden, Vladimir Skavysh We develop an algorithm and run it on a hybrid quantum annealing solver to find an ordering of payments that reduces the amount of system liquidity necessary without substantially increasing payment delays. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, C63, D, D8, D83, E, E4, E42, E5, E58 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Canadian Bitcoin Ownership in 2023: Key Takeaways Staff discussion paper 2025-4 Daniela Balutel, Marie-Hélène Felt, Doina Rusu The Bitcoin Omnibus Survey is an important tool for monitoring Canadians’ awareness and ownership of bitcoin and other cryptoassets over time. In this paper, we present data highlights from the 2023 survey. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C8, C81, E, E4, O, O5, O51 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
Modeling Fluctuations in the Global Demand for Commodities Staff working paper 2018-4 Lutz Kilian, Xiaoqing Zhou It is widely understood that the real price of globally traded commodities is determined by the forces of demand and supply. One of the main determinants of the real price of commodities is shifts in the demand for commodities associated with unexpected fluctuations in global real economic activity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F4, F44, Q, Q1, Q11, Q3, Q31, Q4, Q41, Q43 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Let’s Get Physical: Impacts of Climate Change Physical Risks on Provincial Employment Staff working paper 2024-32 Thibaut Duprey, Soojin Jo, Geneviève Vallée We analyze 40 years’ worth of natural disasters using a local projection framework to assess their impact on provincial labour markets in Canada. We find that disasters decrease hours worked within a week and lower wage growth in the medium run. Our study highlights that disasters affect vulnerable workers through the income channel. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, E, E2, E24, J, J3, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Climate change, Demographics and labour supply
Non-competing Data Intermediaries Staff working paper 2020-28 Shota Ichihashi I study a model of competing data intermediaries (e.g., online platforms and data brokers) that collect personal data from consumers and sell it to downstream firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, D42, D43, D8, D80, L, L1, L12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Models and tools, Economic models, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech