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3045 Results

Real-Time Nowcasting of Nominal GDP Under Structural Breaks

Staff Working Paper 2014-39 William A. Barnett, Marcelle Chauvet, Danilo Leiva-Leon
This paper provides a framework for the early assessment of current U.S. nominal GDP growth, which has been considered a potential new monetary policy target. The nowcasts are computed using the exact amount of information that policy-makers have available at the time predictions are made. However, real-time information arrives at different frequencies and asynchronously, which poses challenges of mixed frequencies, missing data and ragged edges.

Managing Operational Risk in Payment, Clearing, and Settlement Systems

Staff Working Paper 2003-2 Kim McPhail
Awareness of operational risk has increased greatly in recent years, both at individual financial institutions and for payment, clearing, and settlement systems (PCSS). PCSS consist of networks of interconnected elements (i.e., central operators, participants, and settlement agents); operational problems at any one of the key elements have the potential to disrupt the system as a whole and negatively affect financial stability.

Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in Canada: Evidence from Micro- Level Data

Staff Working Paper 2016-40 Dany Brouillette, Olena Kostyshyna, Natalia Kyui
We assess the importance of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) in Canada using both firm- and worker-level microdata. In particular, we analyze employer-level administrative data from the Major Wage Settlements (MWS) and household-based survey data from the Survey of Labour Income Dynamics (SLID).
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J3, J30

Computing Optimal Policy in a Timeless-Perspective: An Application to a Small-Open Economy

Staff Working Paper 2007-32 Michel Juillard, Florian Pelgrin
Since the contribution of Kydland and Prescott (1977), it is well known that the optimal Ramsey policy is time inconsistent. In a series of recent contributions, Woodford (2003) proposes a new methodology to circumvent this problem, namely the timeless perspective solution.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C6, E, E5, E6

U.S. Macroeconomic News and Low-Frequency Changes in Small Open Economies’ Bond Yields

Using two complementary approaches, we investigate the importance of U.S. macroeconomic news in driving low-frequency fluctuations in the term structure of interest rates in Canada, Sweden and the United Kingdom. We find that U.S. macroeconomic news is particularly important to explain changes in the expectation components of the nominal, real and break-even inflation rates of small open economies.

Driving Forces of the Canadian Economy: An Accounting Exercise

Staff Working Paper 2008-14 Simona Cociuba, Alexander Ueberfeldt
This paper analyses the Canadian economy for the post 1960 period. It uses an accounting procedure developed in Chari, Kehoe, and McGrattan (2006). The procedure identifies accounting factors that help align the predictions of the neoclassical growth model with macroeconomic variables observed in the data.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E6, E65, O, O4, O41, O5, O51

How Long Does It Take You to Pay? A Duration Study of Canadian Retail Transaction Payment Times

Staff Working Paper 2018-46 Geneviève Vallée
Using an exclusive data set of payment times for retail transactions made in Canada, I show that cash is the most time-efficient method of payment (MOP) when compared with payments by debit and credit cards. I model payment efficiency using Cox proportional hazard models, accounting for consumer choice of MOP.
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