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3046 Results

What Can Earnings Calls Tell Us About the Output Gap and Inflation in Canada?

Staff Discussion Paper 2023-13 Marc-André Gosselin, Temel Taskin
We construct new indicators of demand and supply for the Canadian economy by using natural language processing techniques to analyze earnings calls of publicly listed firms. Our results indicate that the new indicators could help central banks identify inflationary pressures in real time.

Computing Optimal Policy in a Timeless-Perspective: An Application to a Small-Open Economy

Staff Working Paper 2007-32 Michel Juillard, Florian Pelgrin
Since the contribution of Kydland and Prescott (1977), it is well known that the optimal Ramsey policy is time inconsistent. In a series of recent contributions, Woodford (2003) proposes a new methodology to circumvent this problem, namely the timeless perspective solution.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C6, E, E5, E6

Do Low Interest Rates Sow the Seeds of Financial Crises?

Staff Working Paper 2011-31 Simona Cociuba, Malik Shukayev, Alexander Ueberfeldt
A view advanced in the aftermath of the late-2000s financial crisis is that lower than optimal interest rates lead to excessive risk taking by financial intermediaries.

Endogenous Credibility and Wage-Price Spirals

Staff Working Paper 2024-14 Olena Kostyshyna, Tolga Özden, Yang Zhang
We quantitively assess the risks of a wage-price spiral occurring in Canada over history. We find the risk of a wage-price spiral increases when the inflation expectations become unanchored and the credibility of central banks declines.
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