Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound Staff Working Paper 2012-21 Christiane Baumeister, Luca Benati We explore the macroeconomic effects of a compression in the long-term bond yield spread within the context of the Great Recession of 2007-2009 via a time-varying parameter structural VAR model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, E, E5, E52, E58
A Structural Small Open-Economy Model for Canada Staff Working Paper 2004-4 Stephen Murchison, Andrew Rennison, Zhenhua Zhu The authors develop a small open-economy dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium (DSGE) model in an attempt to understand the dynamic relationships in Canadian macroeconomic data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E5, E52
Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2021 update Staff Analytical Note 2021-6 Dany Brouillette, Guyllaume Faucher, Martin Kuncl, Austin McWhirter, Youngmin Park We expect potential output growth to be higher than in the October 2020 reassessment. By 2024, growth will be slightly above its average growth from 2010 to 2019. We assess that the Canadian nominal neutral rate continues to lie in the range of 1.75 to 2.75 percent. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E23, E24, E3, E37, E4, E43, E5, E52
Measuring Systemic Risk Across Financial Market Infrastructures Staff Working Paper 2016-10 Fuchun Li, Héctor Pérez Saiz We measure systemic risk in the network of financial market infrastructures (FMIs) as the probability that two or more FMIs have a large credit risk exposure to the same FMI participant. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, G, G2, G21, G23
May 16, 2016 A New Era of Central Banking: Unconventional Monetary Policies Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2016 Eric Santor, Lena Suchanek Central banks can implement unconventional monetary policy measures to provide additional easing when policy interest rates come close to their lower limit. To date, the international experience with tools such as quantitative easing and negative interest rates has been largely positive. Central banks may also use several such measures simultaneously, with often mutually reinforcing effects. Yet, unconventional tools are also subject to potential limits, and the costs associated with these measures could rise with extensive and prolonged use. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Interest rates, International topics, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61, E65
An Equilibrium Analysis of the Rise in House Prices and Mortgage Debt Staff Working Paper 2013-9 Shaofeng Xu This paper examines the contributions of population aging, mortgage innovation and historically low interest rates to the sharp rise in U.S. house prices and mortgage debt between 1994 and 2005. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E44, G, G1, G11, R, R2, R21
Adopting Price-Level Targeting under Imperfect Credibility in ToTEM Staff Working Paper 2009-17 Gino Cateau, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Malik Shukayev, Alexander Ueberfeldt Using the Bank of Canada's main projection and policy-analysis model, ToTEM, this paper measures the welfare gains of switching from inflation targeting to price-level targeting under imperfect credibility. Following the policy change, private agents assign a probability to the event that the policy-maker will revert to inflation-targeting next period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52
The Causal Impact of Migration on US Trade: Evidence from Political Refugees Staff Working Paper 2017-49 Walter Steingress Immigrants can increase international trade by shifting preferences towards the goods of their country of origin and by reducing bilateral transaction costs. Using geographical variation across U.S. states for the period 2008 to 2013, I estimate the respective causal impact of immigrants on U.S. exports and imports. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): F, F1, F14, F2, F22, J, J6, J61
June 8, 2023 Economic progress report: Are we entering a new era of higher interest rates? Remarks Paul Beaudry Greater Victoria Chamber of Commerce Victoria, British Columbia Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry discusses the latest interest rate decision and suggests reasons why longer-term interest rates could remain higher than they were before the pandemic. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Expectations, Housing, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission, Price stability, Recent economic and financial developments, Service sector
Education and Self-Employment: Changes in Earnings and Wealth Inequality Staff Working Paper 2006-40 Yaz Terajima The author quantitatively studies the interaction between education and occupation choices and its implication for the relationship between the changes in earnings inequality and the changes in wealth inequality in the United States over the 1983–2001 period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Labour markets JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, I, I2, I21, J, J2, J23