A Structural Small Open-Economy Model for Canada Staff Working Paper 2004-4 Stephen Murchison, Andrew Rennison, Zhenhua Zhu The authors develop a small open-economy dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium (DSGE) model in an attempt to understand the dynamic relationships in Canadian macroeconomic data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E5, E52
Productivity, the Terms of Trade, and the Real Exchange Rate: The Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis Revisited Staff Working Paper 2009-22 Ehsan U. Choudhri, Lawrence L. Schembri The paper examines how the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis is affected by a modern variation of the standard model that allows product differentiation (within the traded and nontraded goods sectors) with the number of firms determined exogenously or endogenously. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Productivity JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F4, F41
May 13, 2014 Beyond the Unemployment Rate: Assessing Canadian and U.S. Labour Markets Since the Great Recession Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2014 Konrad Zmitrowicz, Mikael Khan This article provides a broad perspective on the performance of the labour market in Canada and the United States since the Great Recession. It also presents a simple way to summarize much of this information in a single composite labour market indicator (LMI) for both countries. The LMI suggests that the unemployment rate in Canada has evolved largely in line with overall labour market conditions since the recession, but may have modestly overstated the extent of recent improvement. The U.S. unemployment rate, in contrast, appears to have substantially overstated the post-recession improvement in labour market conditions. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): International topics, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J23
January 10, 2013 Regearing Our Economic Growth Remarks Tiff Macklem Queen’s University - W. Edmund Clark Distinguished Lecture Kingston, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem discusses regearing the Canadian economy for sustained growth. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
May 17, 2012 On the Adjustment of the Global Economy Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2012 Carlos De Resende, Claudia Godbout, René Lalonde, Eric Morin, Nikita Perevalov This article discusses three scenarios for the adjustment of the global economy. In a “baseline” scenario—which encompasses fiscal consolidation in major advanced economies, growth-friendly structural reforms in Europe and Japan, and greater exchange rate flexibility and reforms in the emerging-market economies of Asia to induce rotation of demand away from net exports—global current account imbalances […] Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Exchange rates, Fiscal policy, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): F, F3, F32, F37, F4, F42
Macroeconomic Experiences and Risk Taking of Euro Area Households Staff Working Paper 2014-10 Miguel Ampudia, Michael Ehrmann This paper studies to what extent the experiences of households shape their willingness to take financial risks. It follows the methodology of Malmendier and Nagel (2011) and applies it to a novel data set on household finances covering euro area households. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): D, D0, D03, D1, D14, D8, D83, G, G1, G11
Information Shocks, Jumps, and Price Discovery - Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market Staff Working Paper 2008-22 George Jiang, Ingrid Lo, Adrien Verdelhan We examine large price changes, known as jumps, in the U.S. Treasury market. Using recently developed statistical tools, we identify price jumps in the 2-, 3-, 5-, 10-year notes and 30-year bond during the period of 2005-2006. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G14
Assessing Global Potential Output Growth Staff Analytical Note 2017-3 Patrick Alexander, Michael Francis, Christopher Hajzler, Patrick Kirby, Louis Poirier, Sri Thanabalasingam, Kristina Hess This note estimates potential output growth for the global economy through 2019. While there is considerable uncertainty surrounding our estimates, overall we expect global potential output growth to rise modestly, from 3.1 per cent in 2016 to 3.4 per cent in 2019. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4
The Turning Black Tide: Energy Prices and the Canadian Dollar Staff Working Paper 2006-29 Ramzi Issa, Robert Lafrance, John Murray The authors revisit the relationship between energy prices and the Canadian dollar in the Amano and van Norden (1995) equation, which shows a negative relationship such that higher real energy prices lead to a depreciation of the Canadian dollar. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31
Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2021 update Staff Analytical Note 2021-6 Dany Brouillette, Guyllaume Faucher, Martin Kuncl, Austin McWhirter, Youngmin Park We expect potential output growth to be higher than in the October 2020 reassessment. By 2024, growth will be slightly above its average growth from 2010 to 2019. We assess that the Canadian nominal neutral rate continues to lie in the range of 1.75 to 2.75 percent. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E23, E24, E3, E37, E4, E43, E5, E52