Sequencing Extended Monetary Policies at the Effective Lower Bound Staff Discussion Paper 2021-10 Yang Zhang, Lena Suchanek, Jonathan Swarbrick, Joel Wagner, Tudor Schlanger In this analysis, we use simulations in the Bank of Canada’s projection model—the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model—to consider a suite of extended monetary policies to support the economy following the COVID-19 crisis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E4, E5, E52, E58
Portfolio Rebalancing Channel and the Effects of Large-Scale Stock and Bond Purchases Staff Working Paper 2025-38 Sami Alpanda, Serdar Kabaca We quantify the effects of large-scale stock purchases by a central bank and compare these to bond purchases. We find that the central bank’s equity purchases would lower the risk and term premiums on stocks and long-term bonds, respectively, and thereby stimulate economic activity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, E5, E52
Finance Constraints and Inventory Investment: Empirical Tests with Panel Data Staff Working Paper 2004-38 Rose Cunningham The author empirically tests two aspects of the interaction between financial variables and inventory investment: negative cash flow and finance constraints due to asymmetric information. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Financial institutions JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, G, G1, G14
The Causal Impact of Migration on US Trade: Evidence from Political Refugees Staff Working Paper 2017-49 Walter Steingress Immigrants can increase international trade by shifting preferences towards the goods of their country of origin and by reducing bilateral transaction costs. Using geographical variation across U.S. states for the period 2008 to 2013, I estimate the respective causal impact of immigrants on U.S. exports and imports. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): F, F1, F14, F2, F22, J, J6, J61
Targeting Inflation from Below - How Do Inflation Expectations Behave? Staff Working Paper 2014-52 Michael Ehrmann Inflation targeting (IT) had originally been introduced as a device to bring inflation down and stabilize it at low levels. Given the current environment of persistently weak inflation in many advanced economies, IT central banks must now bring inflation up to target. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58
May 13, 2014 Beyond the Unemployment Rate: Assessing Canadian and U.S. Labour Markets Since the Great Recession Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2014 Konrad Zmitrowicz, Mikael Khan This article provides a broad perspective on the performance of the labour market in Canada and the United States since the Great Recession. It also presents a simple way to summarize much of this information in a single composite labour market indicator (LMI) for both countries. The LMI suggests that the unemployment rate in Canada has evolved largely in line with overall labour market conditions since the recession, but may have modestly overstated the extent of recent improvement. The U.S. unemployment rate, in contrast, appears to have substantially overstated the post-recession improvement in labour market conditions. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): International topics, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J23
An Equilibrium Analysis of the Rise in House Prices and Mortgage Debt Staff Working Paper 2013-9 Shaofeng Xu This paper examines the contributions of population aging, mortgage innovation and historically low interest rates to the sharp rise in U.S. house prices and mortgage debt between 1994 and 2005. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E44, G, G1, G11, R, R2, R21
Productivity, the Terms of Trade, and the Real Exchange Rate: The Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis Revisited Staff Working Paper 2009-22 Ehsan U. Choudhri, Lawrence L. Schembri The paper examines how the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis is affected by a modern variation of the standard model that allows product differentiation (within the traded and nontraded goods sectors) with the number of firms determined exogenously or endogenously. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Productivity JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F4, F41
Bending the Curves: Wages and Inflation Staff Analytical Note 2018-15 Dany Brouillette, Madigan Dockrill, Helen Lao, Laurence Savoie-Chabot As economic slack continues to be absorbed and the labour market tightens, wage growth and inflation could increase faster than expected, which would suggest convexity in their Phillips curves. This note investigates whether there is convexity in the Phillips curves for Canadian wage growth and inflation by testing different empirical approaches over the post-inflation-targeting period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E31, J, J3
The Syndicated Loan Market: Developments in the North American Context Staff Working Paper 2003-15 Jim Armstrong The author describes the rapid development of the syndicated corporate loan market in the 1990s. He explores the historical forces that led to the development of the contemporary U.S. syndicated loan market, which is effectively a hybrid of the investment banking and commercial banking worlds. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G2, G21