Canadian Financial Stress and Macroeconomic Conditions Staff discussion paper 2020-4 Thibaut Duprey Severe disruptions in the financial markets, as observed during the 2008 global financial crisis or the COVID-19 pandemic, can impair the stability of the entire financial system and worsen macroeconomic downturns. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E4, E44, G, G0, G01 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Occasionally Binding Constraints in Large Models: A Review of Solution Methods Staff discussion paper 2021-5 Jonathan Swarbrick Solving macroeconomic models is difficult. One challenge is the occasionally binding constraint of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. This paper reviews various ways to solve models that include this feature. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C6 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
October 26, 2018 Staff economic projections These forecasts are provided to Governing Council in preparation for monetary policy decisions. They are released once a year with a five-year lag.
An Empirical Analysis of Bill Payment Choices Staff working paper 2021-23 Anneke Kosse How do Canadians pay their bills? 2019 survey data collected from over 4,000 Canadian consumers show how people’s bill payment choices vary with consumer characteristics and types of bills. The data also reveal that many consumers feel limited in their choices, which suggests that preferences of billers might play an important role as well. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D9, G, G2 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Retail payments
Macroeconomic Predictions Using Payments Data and Machine Learning Staff working paper 2022-10 James Chapman, Ajit Desai We demonstrate the usefulness of payment systems data and machine learning models for macroeconomic predictions and provide a set of econometric tools to overcome associated challenges. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37, E4, E42, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Money and payments, Retail payments
Optimal Interbank Regulation Staff working paper 2017-48 Thomas J. Carter Recent years have seen renewed interest in the regulation of interbank markets. A review of the literature in this area identifies two gaps: first, the literature has tended to make ad hoc assumptions about the interbank contract space, which makes it difficult to generate convincing policy prescriptions; second, the literature has tended to focus on ex-post interventions that kick in only after an interbank disruption has come underway (e.g., open-market operations, lender-of-last-resort interventions, bail-outs), rather than ex-ante prudential policies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G20 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight
December 23, 2003 Financial System Review - December 2003 This section of the Financial System Review examines the recent performance of the Canadian financial system and the factors, both domestic and international, that are influencing it. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
Firm Heterogeneity, Technological Adoption, and Urbanization: Theory and Measurement Staff working paper 2017-27 Alex Chernoff This paper develops a model of firm heterogeneity, technological adoption, and urbanization. In the model, welfare is measured by household real income, and urbanization is measured by population density. I use the model to derive statistics that measure the effect of a new technology on productivity, welfare, and urbanization. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): N, N6, N61, O, O1, O14, R, R1, R13 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2019 Staff analytical note 2019-13 Fares Bounajm, Jean-Philippe Cayen, Michael Francis, Christopher Hajzler, Kristina Hess, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle, Peter Selcuk This note presents the updated estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2021. Global potential output is expected to grow by 3.3 per cent per year over the projection horizon. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Eggs in One Basket: Security and Convenience of Digital Currencies Staff working paper 2021-6 Charles M. Kahn, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Tsz-Nga Wong Digital currencies store balances in anonymous electronic addresses. This paper analyzes the trade-offs between the safety and convenience of aggregating balances in addresses, electronic wallets and banks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E51, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures