Starting from a Blank Page? Semantic Similarity in Central Bank Communication and Market Volatility Staff working paper 2016-37 Michael Ehrmann, Jonathan Talmi Press releases announcing and explaining monetary policy decisions play a critical role in the communication strategy of central banks. Because of their market-moving potential, it is particularly important how they are drafted. Often, central banks start from the previous statement and update the earlier text with only small changes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Business Closures and (Re)Openings in Real Time Using Google Places Staff working paper 2022-1 Thibaut Duprey, Daniel E. Rigobon, Philip Schnattinger, Artur Kotlicki, Soheil Baharian, T. R. Hurd The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for policy-makers to closely monitor disruptions to the retail and food business sectors. We present a new method to measure business opening and closing rates using real-time data from Google Places, the dataset behind the Google Maps service. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C55, C8, C81, D, D2, D22, E, E3, E32 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Firm-Specific Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations Staff working paper 2016-51 Leonid Karasik, Danny Leung, Ben Tomlin In order to understand what drives aggregate fluctuations, many macroeconomic models point to aggregate shocks and discount the contribution of firm-specific shocks. Recent research from other developed countries, however, has found that aggregate fluctuations are in part driven by idiosyncratic shocks to large firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E23, E24, E3, L, L6 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
The Neutral Rate in Canada: 2019 Update Staff analytical note 2019-11 Thomas J. Carter, Xin Scott Chen, José Dorich This note provides an update on Bank of Canada staff’s assessment of the Canadian neutral rate. The neutral rate is the policy rate needed to keep output at its potential level and inflation at target once the effects of any cyclical shocks have dissipated. This medium- to long-run concept serves as a benchmark for gauging the degree of monetary stimulus provided by a given policy setting. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
August 27, 2020 The imperative for public engagement Remarks (delivered virtually) Tiff Macklem Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Jackson Hole Symposium Jackson Hole, Wyoming Governor Tiff Macklem talks about the need for the Bank to be clear, relatable and understandable when it communicates with the public. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economic models, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation targeting framework
Nowcasting Canadian Economic Activity in an Uncertain Environment Staff discussion paper 2018-9 Tony Chernis, Rodrigo Sekkel This paper studies short-term forecasting of Canadian real GDP and its expenditure components using combinations of nowcasts from different models. Starting with a medium-sized data set, we use a suite of common nowcasting tools for quarterly real GDP and its expenditure components. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E37, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
March 28, 2005 The Thiessen Lectures Lectures delivered by Gordon G. Thiessen, Governor of the Bank of Canada 1994 to 2001 Content Type(s): Publications, Books and monographs
On the Evolution of Multiple Jobholding in Canada Staff working paper 2019-49 Olena Kostyshyna, Etienne Lalé The number of workers who hold more than one job (a.k.a. multiple jobholders) has increased recently in Canada. While this seems to echo the view that non-standard work arrangements are becoming pervasive, the increase has in fact been trivial compared with the long-run rise of multiple jobholding that has occurred since the mid-1970s. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J22, J6, J60 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Dating Systemic Financial Stress Episodes in the EU Countries Staff working paper 2016-11 Benjamin Klaus, Tuomas Peltonen, Thibaut Duprey This paper introduces a new methodology to date systemic financial stress events in a transparent, objective and reproducible way. The financial cycle is captured by a monthly country-specific financial stress index. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C54, G, G0, G01, G1, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
October 13, 2007 Estimating the Cost of Equity for Canadian and U.S. Firms Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2007 Lorie Zorn Financing costs are important for both firms and the economy, affecting investment decisions and, ultimately, economic growth. Despite concern among policy-makers that the cost of equity financing may be higher in Canada than in the United States, empirical evidence supporting this view is mixed. Yet Canadian firms may not undertake as many projects that could potentially enhance growth if the cost of equity financing in Canada is relatively high. The article summarizes research by Jonathan Witmer and Lorie Zorn on the influences on the cost of equity in Canada and the United States, using an updated methodology that controls for firm characteristics and aggregate-level factors. In their sample, the cost of equity was 30–50 basis points higher in Canada over 1988 to 2006 but appears to have dropped in the post-1997 period. The results have policy implications related to such factors as firm size, disclosure, and securities regulation and enforcement. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles