Macroeconomic Predictions Using Payments Data and Machine Learning Staff working paper 2022-10 James Chapman, Ajit Desai We demonstrate the usefulness of payment systems data and machine learning models for macroeconomic predictions and provide a set of econometric tools to overcome associated challenges. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37, E4, E42, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Money and payments, Retail payments
May 5, 2015 Liquid Markets for a Solid Economy Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Chambre de commerce du Montréal métropolitain Montréal, Quebec Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins discusses funding and market liquidity, and announces consultations on the Bank’s market operations and emergency lending frameworks. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
December 23, 2003 Financial System Review - December 2003 This section of the Financial System Review examines the recent performance of the Canadian financial system and the factors, both domestic and international, that are influencing it. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
Lending Standards, Productivity and Credit Crunches Staff working paper 2019-25 Jonathan Swarbrick We propose a macroeconomic model in which adverse selection in investment drives the amplification of macroeconomic fluctuations, in line with prominent roles played by the credit crunch and collapse of the asset-backed security market in the financial crisis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G0, G01 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Markov‐Switching Three‐Pass Regression Filter Staff working paper 2017-13 Pierre Guérin, Danilo Leiva-Leon, Massimiliano Marcellino We introduce a new approach for the estimation of high-dimensional factor models with regime-switching factor loadings by extending the linear three-pass regression filter to settings where parameters can vary according to Markov processes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C23, C5, C53 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Women in economics: What data from top universities reveal about gender equity Sparks at Bank article Gabriela Galassi In the field of economics, on average, women tend to produce fewer research articles and be cited less often than men. But this appears to be changing. A newly compiled dataset about scholars at top universities around the world helps us identify where individual gender gaps exist. Content Type(s): Staff research, Sparks at Bank article Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Canadian Financial Stress and Macroeconomic Conditions Staff discussion paper 2020-4 Thibaut Duprey Severe disruptions in the financial markets, as observed during the 2008 global financial crisis or the COVID-19 pandemic, can impair the stability of the entire financial system and worsen macroeconomic downturns. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E4, E44, G, G0, G01 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
May 14, 2015 The Use of Cash in Canada Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2015 Ben Fung, Kim Huynh, Gerald Stuber The Bank of Canada’s 2013 Methods-of-Payment Survey indicates that the share of cash in the overall number of retail transactions has continued to decrease, mainly because of increased use of contactless credit cards. The share of cash in the total value of retail transactions was virtually unchanged from 2009 to 2013. In particular, the value share of cash transactions above $50 increased. Automated banking machines (ABMs), still the major source of cash for Canadians, were used less often in 2013 than in 2009. Cash use in Canada is broadly similar to that in Australia and the United States. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, E, E4, E42, G, G2, G21, L, L8, L81
Optimal Interbank Regulation Staff working paper 2017-48 Thomas J. Carter Recent years have seen renewed interest in the regulation of interbank markets. A review of the literature in this area identifies two gaps: first, the literature has tended to make ad hoc assumptions about the interbank contract space, which makes it difficult to generate convincing policy prescriptions; second, the literature has tended to focus on ex-post interventions that kick in only after an interbank disruption has come underway (e.g., open-market operations, lender-of-last-resort interventions, bail-outs), rather than ex-ante prudential policies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G20 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight
Machine learning for economics research: when, what and how Staff analytical note 2023-16 Ajit Desai This article reviews selected papers that use machine learning for economics research and policy analysis. Our review highlights when machine learning is used in economics, the commonly preferred models and how those models are used. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): A, A1, A10, B, B2, B23, C, C4, C45, C5, C55 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity