June 21, 2009 Procyclicality and Bank Capital Financial System Review - June 2009 Neville Arjani Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
December 23, 2003 Financial System Review - December 2003 This section of the Financial System Review examines the recent performance of the Canadian financial system and the factors, both domestic and international, that are influencing it. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
Macroeconomic Predictions Using Payments Data and Machine Learning Staff working paper 2022-10 James Chapman, Ajit Desai We demonstrate the usefulness of payment systems data and machine learning models for macroeconomic predictions and provide a set of econometric tools to overcome associated challenges. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37, E4, E42, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Money and payments, Retail payments
Reconciling Jaimovich-Rebelo Preferences, Habit in Consumption and Labor Supply Staff working paper 2018-26 Tom D. Holden, Paul Levine, Jonathan Swarbrick This note studies a form of a utility function of consumption with habit and leisure that (a) is compatible with long-run balanced growth, (b) hits a steady-state observed target for hours worked and (c) is consistent with micro-econometric evidence for the inter-temporal elasticity of substitution and the Frisch elasticity of labor supply. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E24 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Potential output in Canada: 2025 assessment Staff analytical note 2025-14 Selam Abraham, Dany Brouillette, Alex Chernoff, Christopher Hajzler, Stéphanie Houle, Mark Kim, Temel Taskin We explore two scenarios for potential output growth to gain insights into the economic consequences associated with different possible trade policies. Scenario 1 includes limited US tariffs on Canadian exports. Scenario 2 adds a permanent, broad-based 25% increase in US tariffs on imports from all countries excluding Canada and Mexico. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
The Rise of Non-Regulated Financial Intermediaries in the Housing Sector and its Macroeconomic Implications Staff working paper 2017-36 Hélène Desgagnés I examine the impact of non-regulated lenders in the mortgage market using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. My model features two types of financial intermediaries that differ in three ways: (i) only regulated intermediaries face a capital requirement, (ii) non-regulated intermediaries finance themselves by selling securities and cannot accept deposits, and (iii) non-regulated intermediaries face a more elastic demand. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, E47, E6, E60, G, G2, G21, G23, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models
Climate Variability and International Trade Staff working paper 2023-8 Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Walter Steingress, Ben Tomlin This paper quantifies the impact of hurricanes on seaborne international trade to the United States. Matching the timing of hurricane–trade route intersections with monthly U.S. port-level trade data, we isolate the unanticipated effects of a hurricane hitting a trade route using two separate identification schemes: an event study and a local projection. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, F, F1, F14, F18, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, Climate change, International trade, finance and competitiveness
August 4, 2010 Fellowship Award Annual research grants and expense allowances for a term of up to five years.
The Effect of Oil Price Shocks on Asset Markets: Evidence from Oil Inventory News Staff working paper 2020-8 Ron Alquist, Reinhard Ellwanger, Jianjian Jin We quantify the reaction of U.S. equity, bond futures, and exchange rate returns to oil price shocks driven by oil inventory news. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E44, G, G1, G14, G15, Q, Q4, Q41, Q43 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures
On the Evolution of Multiple Jobholding in Canada Staff working paper 2019-49 Olena Kostyshyna, Etienne Lalé The number of workers who hold more than one job (a.k.a. multiple jobholders) has increased recently in Canada. While this seems to echo the view that non-standard work arrangements are becoming pervasive, the increase has in fact been trivial compared with the long-run rise of multiple jobholding that has occurred since the mid-1970s. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J22, J6, J60 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply