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2094 Results

The Trend Unemployment Rate in Canada: Searching for the Unobservable

In this paper, we assess several methods that have been used to measure the Canadian trend unemployment rate (TUR). We also consider improvements and extensions to some existing methods.

An Empirical Analysis of Bill Payment Choices

Staff working paper 2021-23 Anneke Kosse
How do Canadians pay their bills? 2019 survey data collected from over 4,000 Canadian consumers show how people’s bill payment choices vary with consumer characteristics and types of bills. The data also reveal that many consumers feel limited in their choices, which suggests that preferences of billers might play an important role as well.

Macroeconomic Predictions Using Payments Data and Machine Learning

Staff working paper 2022-10 James Chapman, Ajit Desai
We demonstrate the usefulness of payment systems data and machine learning models for macroeconomic predictions and provide a set of econometric tools to overcome associated challenges.

Digitalization and Inflation: A Review of the Literature

In the past few years, many have postulated that the possible disinflationary effects of digitalization could explain the subdued inflation in advanced economies. In this note, we review the evidence found in the literature. We look at three main channels.

Non-Performing Loans, Fiscal Costs and Credit Expansion in China

Staff working paper 2018-53 Huixin Bi, Yongquan Cao, Wei Dong
This paper studies how the credit expansion policy pursued by the Chinese government in an effort to stimulate its economy in the post-crisis period affects bank–firm loan contracts and the macroeconomy. We build a structural model with financial frictions in which the optimal loan contract reflects the trade-off between leverage and the probability of default.

Nowcasting Canadian GDP with Density Combinations

Staff discussion paper 2022-12 Tony Chernis, Taylor Webley
We present a tool for creating density nowcasts for Canadian real GDP growth. We demonstrate that the combined densities are a reliable and accurate tool for assessing the state of the economy and risks to the outlook.

On the Fragility of DeFi Lending

Staff working paper 2023-14 Jonathan Chiu, Emre Ozdenoren, Kathy Yuan, Shengxing Zhang
We develop a dynamic model to capture key features of decentralized finance lending. We identify a price-liquidity feedback: the market outcome in any given period depends on agents' expectations about lending activities in future periods, with higher future price expectations leading to more lending and higher prices in that period.

Redistributive Effects of a Change in the Inflation Target

Staff analytical note 2017-13 Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter, Yaz Terajima
In light of the financial crisis and its aftermath, several economists have argued that inflation-targeting central banks should reconsider the level of their inflation targets. While the appropriate level for the inflation target remains an open question, it’s important to note that any transition to a new target would entail certain costs.

Unregulated Lending, Mortgage Regulations and Monetary Policy

Staff working paper 2022-28 Ugochi Emenogu, Brian Peterson
This paper evaluates the effectiveness of macroprudential policies when regulations are uneven across mortgage lender types. We look at credit tightening that results from macroprudential regulations and examine how much of it is counteracted by credit shifting to unregulated lenders. We also study the impact of monetary policy tightening when some lenders are unregulated.
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