Climate Variability and International Trade Staff working paper 2023-8 Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Walter Steingress, Ben Tomlin This paper quantifies the impact of hurricanes on seaborne international trade to the United States. Matching the timing of hurricane–trade route intersections with monthly U.S. port-level trade data, we isolate the unanticipated effects of a hurricane hitting a trade route using two separate identification schemes: an event study and a local projection. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, F, F1, F14, F18, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, Climate change, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Firm Heterogeneity, Technological Adoption, and Urbanization: Theory and Measurement Staff working paper 2017-27 Alex Chernoff This paper develops a model of firm heterogeneity, technological adoption, and urbanization. In the model, welfare is measured by household real income, and urbanization is measured by population density. I use the model to derive statistics that measure the effect of a new technology on productivity, welfare, and urbanization. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): N, N6, N61, O, O1, O14, R, R1, R13 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
The Macroeconomic Effects of Portfolio Equity Inflows Staff working paper 2023-31 Nick Sander I provide evidence that portfolio equity inflows can have expansionary effects on GDP and inflation if not offset by monetary policy. I use a shift-share instrument to estimate equity inflows based on plausibly exogenous timing of inflows into mutual funds with heterogeneous country portfolios. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, F, F3, F32, F4, F44 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
On the Evolution of Multiple Jobholding in Canada Staff working paper 2019-49 Olena Kostyshyna, Etienne Lalé The number of workers who hold more than one job (a.k.a. multiple jobholders) has increased recently in Canada. While this seems to echo the view that non-standard work arrangements are becoming pervasive, the increase has in fact been trivial compared with the long-run rise of multiple jobholding that has occurred since the mid-1970s. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J22, J6, J60 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
June 15, 2011 Housing in Canada Remarks Mark Carney Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia In a speech to the Vancouver Board of Trade, Governor Mark Carney discusses the fundamentals of the Canadian residential real estate market, the international context, and the implications for monetary policy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
June 13, 2013 The Market for Collateral: The Potential Impact of Financial Regulation Financial System Review - June 2013 Jorge Cruz Lopez, Royce Mendes, Harri Vikstedt Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
A Framework for Analyzing Monetary Policy in an Economy with E-money Staff working paper 2019-1 Yu Zhu, Scott Hendry This paper considers an economy where central-bank-issued fiat money competes with privately issued e-money. We study a policy-setting game between the central bank and the e-money issuer and find (1) the optimal monetary policy of the central bank depends on the policy of the private issuer and may deviate from the Friedman rule; (2) multiple equilibria may exist; (3) when the economy approaches a cashless state, the central bank’s optimal policy improves the market power of the e-money issuer and can lead to a discrete decrease in welfare and a discrete increase in inflation; and (4) first best cannot be achieved. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
Quantitative Easing in a Small Open Economy: An International Portfolio Balancing Approach Staff working paper 2016-55 Serdar Kabaca This paper studies the effects of quantitative easing (QE) in a small open economy dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with international portfolio balancing. Portfolios are classified as imperfectly substitutable short-term and long-term subportfolios, each including domestic and foreign bonds. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
October 26, 2018 Staff economic projections These forecasts are provided to Governing Council in preparation for monetary policy decisions. They are released once a year with a five-year lag.
Non-Performing Loans, Fiscal Costs and Credit Expansion in China Staff working paper 2018-53 Huixin Bi, Yongquan Cao, Wei Dong This paper studies how the credit expansion policy pursued by the Chinese government in an effort to stimulate its economy in the post-crisis period affects bank–firm loan contracts and the macroeconomy. We build a structural model with financial frictions in which the optimal loan contract reflects the trade-off between leverage and the probability of default. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E6, E62 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting