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2094 Results

The Trend Unemployment Rate in Canada: Searching for the Unobservable

In this paper, we assess several methods that have been used to measure the Canadian trend unemployment rate (TUR). We also consider improvements and extensions to some existing methods.

Nowcasting Canadian GDP with Density Combinations

Staff discussion paper 2022-12 Tony Chernis, Taylor Webley
We present a tool for creating density nowcasts for Canadian real GDP growth. We demonstrate that the combined densities are a reliable and accurate tool for assessing the state of the economy and risks to the outlook.

Quantitative Easing in a Small Open Economy: An International Portfolio Balancing Approach

Staff working paper 2016-55 Serdar Kabaca
This paper studies the effects of quantitative easing (QE) in a small open economy dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with international portfolio balancing. Portfolios are classified as imperfectly substitutable short-term and long-term subportfolios, each including domestic and foreign bonds.

Digitalization and Inflation: A Review of the Literature

In the past few years, many have postulated that the possible disinflationary effects of digitalization could explain the subdued inflation in advanced economies. In this note, we review the evidence found in the literature. We look at three main channels.

The Macroeconomic Effects of Portfolio Equity Inflows

Staff working paper 2023-31 Nick Sander
I provide evidence that portfolio equity inflows can have expansionary effects on GDP and inflation if not offset by monetary policy. I use a shift-share instrument to estimate equity inflows based on plausibly exogenous timing of inflows into mutual funds with heterogeneous country portfolios.
November 17, 2016

Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2016

What is the role of central banks in financial stability? How has this role changed in recent years? Bank researchers share their insights on this matter and provide an overview of recent changes the Bank has made to its Emergency Lending Assistance Policy. Researchers also provide a history of four major commodity supercycles, dating back to the early 1900s. Finally, there is discussion about structural reforms in emerging-market economies, such as China, and how these reforms influence potential growth.

An Empirical Analysis of Bill Payment Choices

Staff working paper 2021-23 Anneke Kosse
How do Canadians pay their bills? 2019 survey data collected from over 4,000 Canadian consumers show how people’s bill payment choices vary with consumer characteristics and types of bills. The data also reveal that many consumers feel limited in their choices, which suggests that preferences of billers might play an important role as well.

Non-Performing Loans, Fiscal Costs and Credit Expansion in China

Staff working paper 2018-53 Huixin Bi, Yongquan Cao, Wei Dong
This paper studies how the credit expansion policy pursued by the Chinese government in an effort to stimulate its economy in the post-crisis period affects bank–firm loan contracts and the macroeconomy. We build a structural model with financial frictions in which the optimal loan contract reflects the trade-off between leverage and the probability of default.
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