Potential output in Canada: 2025 assessment Staff analytical note 2025-14 Selam Abraham, Dany Brouillette, Alex Chernoff, Christopher Hajzler, Stéphanie Houle, Mark Kim, Temel Taskin We explore two scenarios for potential output growth to gain insights into the economic consequences associated with different possible trade policies. Scenario 1 includes limited US tariffs on Canadian exports. Scenario 2 adds a permanent, broad-based 25% increase in US tariffs on imports from all countries excluding Canada and Mexico. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
DeFi Lending: Returns, Leverage, and Liquidation Risk Staff analytical paper 2026-13 Jonathan Chiu, Furkan Danisman DeFi lending with proper governance is operationally viable, but it also faces constraints related to capital efficiency, liquidation risk, and systemic fragility within the crypto ecosystem. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E58 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Climate Variability and International Trade Staff working paper 2023-8 Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Walter Steingress, Ben Tomlin This paper quantifies the impact of hurricanes on seaborne international trade to the United States. Matching the timing of hurricane–trade route intersections with monthly U.S. port-level trade data, we isolate the unanticipated effects of a hurricane hitting a trade route using two separate identification schemes: an event study and a local projection. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, F, F1, F14, F18, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, Climate change, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Firm Heterogeneity, Technological Adoption, and Urbanization: Theory and Measurement Staff working paper 2017-27 Alex Chernoff This paper develops a model of firm heterogeneity, technological adoption, and urbanization. In the model, welfare is measured by household real income, and urbanization is measured by population density. I use the model to derive statistics that measure the effect of a new technology on productivity, welfare, and urbanization. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): N, N6, N61, O, O1, O14, R, R1, R13 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
February 17, 2011 Competition in the Canadian Mortgage Market Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2010-2011 Jason Allen This article begins with a brief examination of the Canadian mortgage market, focusing on the market’s evolution following changes to the Bank Act in 1992, which allowed chartered banks to enter the trust business, and the subsequent entrance of virtual banks and mortgage brokers. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
International Transmission of Quantitative Easing Policies: Evidence from Canada Staff working paper 2022-30 Serdar Kabaca, Kerem Tuzcuoglu This paper examines the cross-border spillovers from major economies’ quantitative easing (QE) policies to their trading partners. We concentrate on spillovers from the US to Canada during the zero lower bound period when QE policies were actively used. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, F, F4, F41, F44 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Central Bank Digital Currency: Motivations and Implications Staff discussion paper 2017-16 Walter Engert, Ben Fung The emergence of digital currencies such as Bitcoin and the underlying blockchain and distribution ledger technology have attracted significant attention. These developments have raised the possibility of considerable impacts on the financial system and perhaps the wider economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
On the Evolution of Multiple Jobholding in Canada Staff working paper 2019-49 Olena Kostyshyna, Etienne Lalé The number of workers who hold more than one job (a.k.a. multiple jobholders) has increased recently in Canada. While this seems to echo the view that non-standard work arrangements are becoming pervasive, the increase has in fact been trivial compared with the long-run rise of multiple jobholding that has occurred since the mid-1970s. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J22, J6, J60 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Redistributive Effects of a Change in the Inflation Target Staff analytical note 2017-13 Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter, Yaz Terajima In light of the financial crisis and its aftermath, several economists have argued that inflation-targeting central banks should reconsider the level of their inflation targets. While the appropriate level for the inflation target remains an open question, it’s important to note that any transition to a new target would entail certain costs. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
October 26, 2018 Staff economic projections These forecasts are provided to Governing Council in preparation for monetary policy decisions. They are released once a year with a five-year lag.