June 11, 2015 Assessing Vulnerabilities in the Canadian Financial System Financial System Review - June 2015 Ian Christensen, Gitanjali Kumar, Césaire Meh, Lorie Zorn The authors present the four common cyclical vulnerabilities that appear in financial systems, providing examples of qualitative and quantitative indicators used to monitor these vulnerabilities across different sectors. They also discuss other inputs to the vulnerability assessment and to the internal process used at the Bank of Canada for identifying, evaluating and communicating vulnerabilities and risks, and highlight some of the key challenges in assessing financial system vulnerabilities and risks. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G10, G2, G20
March 25, 2022 A world of difference: Households, the pandemic and monetary policy Remarks (delivered virtually) Sharon Kozicki Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference San Francisco, California Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki discusses how differences among households affect economic outcomes, how shocks can have important uneven effects across households, and why these things matter for monetary policy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economic models, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
The Neutral Rate in Canada: 2019 Update Staff analytical note 2019-11 Thomas J. Carter, Xin Scott Chen, José Dorich This note provides an update on Bank of Canada staff’s assessment of the Canadian neutral rate. The neutral rate is the policy rate needed to keep output at its potential level and inflation at target once the effects of any cyclical shocks have dissipated. This medium- to long-run concept serves as a benchmark for gauging the degree of monetary stimulus provided by a given policy setting. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
The Side Effects of Safe Asset Creation Staff working paper 2021-34 Sushant Acharya, Keshav Dogra The secular decline in real interest rates has created a challenge for monetary policy, now confronting the zero lower bound more often. An increase in the supply of safe assets reduces downward pressure on the natural interest rate. This allows monetary policy to reach price stability and full employment, but not without cost—permanently lower investment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E4, E5, G, G1, H, H6 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Nowcasting Canadian Economic Activity in an Uncertain Environment Staff discussion paper 2018-9 Tony Chernis, Rodrigo Sekkel This paper studies short-term forecasting of Canadian real GDP and its expenditure components using combinations of nowcasts from different models. Starting with a medium-sized data set, we use a suite of common nowcasting tools for quarterly real GDP and its expenditure components. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E37, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
September 18, 2017 How Canada’s International Trade is Changing with the Times Remarks Timothy Lane Saskatoon Regional Economic Development Authority Saskatoon, Saskatchewan Deputy Governor Timothy Lane discusses the changing nature of international trade and the factors that are propelling it. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial markets, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth
Opaque Assets and Rollover Risk Staff working paper 2016-17 Benjamin Nelson, Toni Ahnert We model the asset-opacity choice of an intermediary subject to rollover risk in wholesale funding markets. Greater opacity means investors form more dispersed beliefs about an intermediary’s profitability. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
Occasionally Binding Constraints in Large Models: A Review of Solution Methods Staff discussion paper 2021-5 Jonathan Swarbrick Solving macroeconomic models is difficult. One challenge is the occasionally binding constraint of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. This paper reviews various ways to solve models that include this feature. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C6 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
October 19, 2020 Backgrounder on the Business Outlook Survey question on wage growth Starting with the 2020 autumn survey, the results from a question on labour cost growth are being included in the Business Outlook Survey. This document describes the question and presents the correlations between the responses and various measures of wages and employment. Content Type(s): Background materials
December 21, 2008 Financial System Review - December 2008 The turmoil in global financial markets entered a new phase in September, moving to a more acute and broad-based loss of confidence in the context of a series of failures and near-failures of large financial institutions in the United States and Europe.FSR Highlights - December 2008 Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report