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2156 Results

Redistributive Effects of a Change in the Inflation Target

Staff analytical note 2017-13 Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter, Yaz Terajima
In light of the financial crisis and its aftermath, several economists have argued that inflation-targeting central banks should reconsider the level of their inflation targets. While the appropriate level for the inflation target remains an open question, it’s important to note that any transition to a new target would entail certain costs.

The Determinants of Consumers’ Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the US and Canada

Staff working paper 2020-52 Charles Bellemare, Rolande Kpekou Tossou, Kevin Moran
We compare the determinants of consumer inflation expectations in the US and Canada by analyzing two current surveys. We find that Canadian consumers rely more on professional forecasts and the history of actual inflation when forming their expectations, while US consumers rely more on their own lagged expectations.

A Macroeconomic Model of an Epidemic with Silent Transmission and Endogenous Self-isolation

Staff working paper 2020-50 Antonio Diez de los Rios
We study the interaction between epidemics and economic decisions in a model that has silent transmission of the virus. We find that rational behaviour strongly diminishes the severity of the epidemic but worsens the economic recession. We also find that the detection and isolation of not only symptomatic individuals but also those who are infected and asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic can reduce the severity of the recession caused by the pandemic.
August 4, 2010

Governor's Award

Annual research grants for a term of up to two years.
October 20, 2006

MUSE: The Bank of Canada's New Projection Model of the U.S. Economy

Staff projections provided for the Bank of Canada's monetary policy decision process take into account the integration of Canada's very open economy within the global economy, as well as its close real and financial linkages with the United States. To provide inputs for this projection, the Bank has developed several models, including MUSE, NEUQ (the New European Quarterly Model), and BoC-GEM (Bank of Canada Global Economy Model), to analyze and forecast economic developments in the rest of the world. The authors focus on MUSE, the model currently used to describe interaction among the principal U.S. economic variables, including gross domestic product, inflation, interest rates, and the exchange rate. Brief descriptions are also provided of NEUQ and BoC-GEM.

The Heterogeneous Effects of COVID-19 on Canadian Household Consumption, Debt and Savings

Staff working paper 2020-51 James (Jim) C. MacGee, Thomas Michael Pugh, Kurt See
The impact of COVID-19 on Canadian households’ debt and unplanned savings varies by household income. Low-income and high-income households accrued unplanned savings, while middle-income households tended to accumulate more debt.
August 4, 2010

Fellowship Award

Annual research grants and expense allowances for a term of up to five years.
November 16, 2017

An Update on the Neutral Rate of Interest

The neutral rate serves as a benchmark for measuring monetary stimulus and provides a medium- to long-run anchor for the real policy rate. Global neutral rate estimates have been falling over the past few decades. Factors such as population aging, high corporate savings, and low trend productivity growth are likely to continue supporting a low global neutral rate. These global factors as well as domestic factors are exerting downward pres-sure on the Canadian real neutral rate, which is estimated to be between 0.5 to 1.5 per cent. This low neutral rate has important implications for monetary policy and financial stability.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58, F, F0, F01, F4, F43, O, O4

Occasionally Binding Constraints in Large Models: A Review of Solution Methods

Staff discussion paper 2021-5 Jonathan Swarbrick
Solving macroeconomic models is difficult. One challenge is the occasionally binding constraint of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. This paper reviews various ways to solve models that include this feature.
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