November 12, 2020 Exploring life after COVID-19: the far side of the moon Remarks (delivered virtually) Carolyn A. Wilkins Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy Toronto, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses what the economy will need once we’re past the COVID-19 crisis. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
Financial Intermediaries and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from a High-Frequency Identification Staff working paper 2022-24 Pablo Ottonello, Wenting Song We provide empirical evidence of effects to the aggregate economy from surprises about financial intermediaries’ net worth based on a high-frequency identification strategy. We estimate that news of a 1% decline in intermediaries’ net worth leads to a 0.2%–0.4% decrease in the market value of nonfinancial firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, E5, E51, G, G0, G01, G1, G12, G2, G21, G23, G24, G3, G32 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
December 23, 2002 Financial Structure and Economic Growth: A Non-Technical Survey Financial System Review - December 2002 Veronika Dolar, Césaire Meh Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Bending the Curves: Wages and Inflation Staff analytical note 2018-15 Dany Brouillette, Madigan Dockrill, Helen Lao, Laurence Savoie-Chabot As economic slack continues to be absorbed and the labour market tightens, wage growth and inflation could increase faster than expected, which would suggest convexity in their Phillips curves. This note investigates whether there is convexity in the Phillips curves for Canadian wage growth and inflation by testing different empirical approaches over the post-inflation-targeting period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E31, J, J3 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
January 30, 2020 Monetary Policy and Financial Vulnerabilities Remarks Paul Beaudry Université Laval Québec, Québec Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry discusses how financial vulnerabilities present a challenge for monetary policy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
The Impact of Macroprudential Housing Finance Tools in Canada: 2005–10 Staff working paper 2016-41 Jason Allen, Timothy Grieder, Brian Peterson, Tom Roberts This paper combines loan-level administrative data with household-level survey data to analyze the impact of recent macroprudential policy changes in Canada using a microsimulation model of mortgage demand of first-time homebuyers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, D, D1, D14, G, G2, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Credibility, Flexibility and Renewal: The Evolution of Inflation Targeting in Canada Staff discussion paper 2018-18 Thomas J. Carter, Rhys R. Mendes, Lawrence L. Schembri In 1991, Canada became the second country to adopt an inflation target as a central pillar of its monetary policy framework. The regime has proven much more successful than initially expected, both in achieving price stability and in stabilizing the real economy against a wide range of shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
December 21, 2008 The Role of Bank Capital in the Propagation of Shocks Financial System Review - December 2008 Césaire Meh, Kevin Moran Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
A Counterfactual Valuation of the Stock Index as a Predictor of Crashes Staff working paper 2017-38 Tom Roberts Stock market fundamentals would not seem to meaningfully predict returns over a shorter-term horizon—instead, I shift focus to severe downside risk (i.e., crashes). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G12, G17, G19 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk
June 9, 2010 Crude Oil Futures: A Crystal Ball? Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2010 Ron Alquist, Elif Arbatli Based on recent research, this article discusses three ways that oil-futures prices can improve our understanding of current conditions and future prospects in the global market for crude oil. First, the response of the oil-futures curve can be used to identify the persistence of oil-price shocks and to obtain an indicator of the rate at which they will diminish. Second, the spread between the current futures price and the spot price of oil can be interpreted as an indicator of the precautionary demand for oil. Third, because oil-futures prices are volatile, forecasts of the future spot price of oil using futures prices should be supplemented with other information to improve their accuracy. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles