February 21, 2013 The U.S. Recovery from the Great Recession: A Story of Debt and Deleveraging Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2012-2013 Brady Lavender, Nicolas Parent The U.S. recovery from the Great Recession has been slow relative to other postwar-era recoveries in the United States. Encouraged by loose lending standards in the pre-crisis period, U.S. households took on unsustainable amounts of debt, making them vulnerable to adverse shocks. Subsequently, a considerable drop in asset prices forced households to repair their balance sheets. While there has been progress in household deleveraging, the government sector now needs to delever, which will restrain growth over the next few years. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E6, E60
On the Programmability and Uniformity of Digital Currencies Staff working paper 2025-18 Jonathan Chiu, Cyril Monnet Central bankers argue that programmable digital currencies may compromise the uniformity of money. We develop a stylized model to examine this argument and the trade-offs involved in circulating programmable money. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E58 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
May 13, 1997 Capacity constraints, price adjustment, and monetary policy Bank of Canada Review - Spring 1997 Tiff Macklem The short-run Phillips curve describes a positive short-run relationship between the level of economic activity and inflation. When the level of demand in the economy as a whole runs ahead of the level of output that the economy can supply in the short run, price pressures increase and inflation rises. This article reviews the origins of the short-run Phillips curve with particular emphasis on the long-standing idea that the shape of this curve may be non-linear, with inflation becoming more sensitive to changes in output when the cycle of economic activity is high than when it is low. This type of non-linearity in the short-run Phillips curve, which is typically motivated by the effects of capacity constraints that limit the ability of the economy to expand in the short run, has recently attracted renewed attention. The article surveys recent research that finds some evidence of this type of non-linearity in the Phillips curve in Canada and considers the potential implications for monetary policy. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
June 22, 2011 Emerging from the Shadows: Market-Based Financing in Canada Financial System Review - June 2011 James Chapman, Lawrence L. Schembri, Stéphane Lavoie Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Redistributive Effects of a Change in the Inflation Target Staff analytical note 2017-13 Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter, Yaz Terajima In light of the financial crisis and its aftermath, several economists have argued that inflation-targeting central banks should reconsider the level of their inflation targets. While the appropriate level for the inflation target remains an open question, it’s important to note that any transition to a new target would entail certain costs. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
Interbank Asset-Liability Networks with Fire Sale Management Staff working paper 2020-41 Zachary Feinstein, Grzegorz Halaj Raising liquidity when funding is stressed creates pressure on the financial market. Liquidating large quantities of assets depresses their prices and may amplify funding shocks. How do banks weathering a funding crisis contribute to contagion risk? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C62, C63, C7, C72, G, G0, G01, G1, G11 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
The Productivity Slowdown in Canada: An ICT Phenomenon? Staff working paper 2019-2 Jeffrey Mollins, Pierre St-Amant We ask whether a weaker contribution of information and communication technologies (ICT) to productivity growth could account for the productivity slowdown observed in Canada since the early 2000s. To answer this question, we consider several methods capturing channels through which ICT could affect aggregate productivity growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, O, O4, O41, O47 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
A Macroeconomic Model of an Epidemic with Silent Transmission and Endogenous Self-isolation Staff working paper 2020-50 Antonio Diez de los Rios We study the interaction between epidemics and economic decisions in a model that has silent transmission of the virus. We find that rational behaviour strongly diminishes the severity of the epidemic but worsens the economic recession. We also find that the detection and isolation of not only symptomatic individuals but also those who are infected and asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic can reduce the severity of the recession caused by the pandemic. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E1, H, H0, I, I1 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Gazing at r-star: A Hysteresis Perspective Staff working paper 2023-5 Paul Beaudry, Katya Kartashova, Césaire Meh Many explanations for the decline in real interest rates over the last 30 years point to the role that population aging or rising income inequality plays in increasing the long-run aggregate demand for assets. Notwithstanding the importance of such factors, the starting point of this paper is to show that the major change driving household asset demand over this period is instead an increased desire—for a given age and income level—to hold assets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E3, E31, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58, E6, E62, G, G5, G51, H, H6 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
Stagflation and Topsy-Turvy Capital Flows Staff working paper 2022-46 Julien Bengui, Louphou Coulibaly Unregulated capital flows are likely excessive during a stagflation episode, owing to a macroeconomic externality operating through the economy’s supply side. Inflows raise domestic wages and cause unwelcome upward pressure on firm costs, yet market forces likely generate such inflows. Optimal capital flow management instead requires net outflows. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D6, D62, E, E5, E52, F, F3, F32, F38, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness