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3029 Results

Non-homothetic Preferences and the Demand Channel of Inflation

Staff Working Paper 2025-30 Stephen Murchison
An alternative to the standard CES aggregator, based on non-homothetic household preferences, is proposed. Specifically, the elasticity of substitution between goods declines during periods of strong per-capita consumption and vice versa, giving firms an incentive to adjust their desired markup in response to the state of demand. Empirical evidence favouring a direct role for per-capita consumption demand in inflation determination for Canada is presented.

The Evolution of the Chinese Housing Market and Its Impact on Base Metal Prices

Staff Discussion Paper 2016-7 Mark Kruger, Kun Mo, Benjamin Sawatzky
The Chinese housing market has grown rapidly following its liberalization in the 1990s, generating significant economic activity and demand for base metals. In this paper, we discuss the evolution of the Chinese housing market and quantify its importance for the overall Chinese economy and its linkages to base metal prices.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): Q, Q3, Q31, R, R3, R31

Inflation Targeting and Price-Level-Path Targeting in the GEM: Some Open Economy Considerations

Staff Working Paper 2008-6 Donald Coletti, René Lalonde, Dirk Muir
This paper compares the performance of simple inflation targeting (IT) and price-level path targeting (PLPT) rules to stabilize the macroeconomy, in response to a series of shocks, similar to those seen in Canada and the United States over the 1983 to 2004 period.

Trends in Firm Entry and New Entrepreneurship in Canada

Staff Discussion Paper 2015-11 Shutao Cao, Mohanad Salameh, Mai Seki, Pierre St-Amant
Recently released data show downward trends for both the firm entry rate and the rate of new entrepreneurship since the early 1980s in Canada. This paper documents these trends and discusses potential explanations.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Market structure and pricing, Productivity JEL Code(s): L, L1, L11, M, M1, M13

Computing Optimal Policy in a Timeless-Perspective: An Application to a Small-Open Economy

Staff Working Paper 2007-32 Michel Juillard, Florian Pelgrin
Since the contribution of Kydland and Prescott (1977), it is well known that the optimal Ramsey policy is time inconsistent. In a series of recent contributions, Woodford (2003) proposes a new methodology to circumvent this problem, namely the timeless perspective solution.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C6, E, E5, E6

Real Time Detection of Structural Breaks in GARCH Models

Staff Working Paper 2009-31 Zhongfang He, John M. Maheu
A sequential Monte Carlo method for estimating GARCH models subject to an unknown number of structural breaks is proposed. Particle filtering techniques allow for fast and efficient updates of posterior quantities and forecasts in real time.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C15, C2, C22, C5, C53

Electronic Transactions as High-Frequency Indicators of Economic Activity

Staff Working Paper 2007-58 John Galbraith, Greg Tkacz
Since the advent of standard national accounts data over 60 years ago, economists have traditionally relied on monthly or quarterly data supplied by central statistical agencies for macroeconomic modelling and forecasting.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, E2, E27, E6, E66

Estimating the Fractional Order of Integration of Interest Rates Using a Wavelet OLS Estimator

Staff Working Paper 2000-5 Greg Tkacz
The debate on the order of integration of interest rates has long focused on the I(1) versus I(0) distinction. In this paper, we use instead the wavelet OLS estimator of Jensen (1999) to estimate the fractional integration parameters of several interest rates for the United States and Canada from 1948 to 1999.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, E, E4, E43
May 13, 2014

Beyond the Unemployment Rate: Assessing Canadian and U.S. Labour Markets Since the Great Recession

This article provides a broad perspective on the performance of the labour market in Canada and the United States since the Great Recession. It also presents a simple way to summarize much of this information in a single composite labour market indicator (LMI) for both countries. The LMI suggests that the unemployment rate in Canada has evolved largely in line with overall labour market conditions since the recession, but may have modestly overstated the extent of recent improvement. The U.S. unemployment rate, in contrast, appears to have substantially overstated the post-recession improvement in labour market conditions.
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