Short-Term Forecasting of the Japanese Economy Using Factor Models Staff Working Paper 2012-7 Claudia Godbout, Marco J. Lombardi While the usefulness of factor models has been acknowledged over recent years, little attention has been devoted to the forecasting power of these models for the Japanese economy. In this paper, we aim at assessing the relative performance of factor models over different samples, including the recent financial crisis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C50, C53, E, E3, E37, E4, E47
The Exchange Rate and Canadian Inflation Targeting Staff Working Paper 2005-34 Christopher Ragan The author provides a non-technical explanation of the role played by the exchange rate in Canada's inflation-targeting monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation targets, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E52, F, F4, F41
COVID-19 and Financial Stability: Practice Ahead of Theory Staff Discussion Paper 2022-18 Jing Yang, Hélène Desgagnés, Grzegorz Halaj, Yaz Terajima The COVID-19 pandemic uncovered policy challenges related to the economic measures that were taken to support the economy. Two years later, we attempt to identify the broader impact of these measures and research that needs to follow. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, E6, E61, G, G2, G21, H, H3, H8, H84
Electronic Transactions as High-Frequency Indicators of Economic Activity Staff Working Paper 2007-58 John Galbraith, Greg Tkacz Since the advent of standard national accounts data over 60 years ago, economists have traditionally relied on monthly or quarterly data supplied by central statistical agencies for macroeconomic modelling and forecasting. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, E2, E27, E6, E66
External Stability, Real Exchange Rate Adjustment and the Exchange Rate Regime in Emerging-Market Economies Staff Discussion Paper 2011-5 Olivier Gervais, Lawrence L. Schembri, Lena Suchanek In emerging-market economies, real exchange rate adjustment is critical for maintaining a sustainable current account position and thereby for helping to reduce macroeconomic and financial instability. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Development economics, Exchange rate regimes, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F32, F4, F41
The Resolution of International Financial Crises: Private Finance and Public Funds Staff Working Paper 2001-20 Andy Haldane, Mark Kruger Over the past year and a half, the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada have been developing a framework for the resolution of international financial crises that aligns incentives for all parties to deal with a crisis and preserve the integrity of the international financial system. The framework is built on principles, not rules. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, F4, F42
Natural disasters and inflation in Canada Staff Analytical Note 2025-8 Thibaut Duprey, Victoria Fernandes How do storms, floods and wildfires affect consumer prices? In the short term, natural disasters can significantly increase volatility in Canada-wide inflation. Over the long term, natural disasters influence inflation in shelter prices, especially when provincial output is already weak relative to trend. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Climate change, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, Q, Q5, Q54
August 24, 2004 The Efficiency of Canadian Capital Markets: Some Bank of Canada Research Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2004 Scott Hendry, Michael R. King Capital markets and their related financial instruments make an important contribution to the welfare of Canadians. The Bank of Canada is interested in the efficient functioning of capital markets through each of its responsibilities for monetary policy, the financial system, and funds management. Hendry and King highlight the key findings of Bank research published over the past year that addresses capital market efficiency and summarize lessons that have been learned. The research conducted thus far suggests that Canadian capital markets are efficient for a capital market of Canada's size but are less diverse than the U.S. capital markets, indicating that there is room for improvement in certain areas. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial services, Interest rates, Market structure and pricing
Early Warning of Financial Stress Events: A Credit-Regime-Switching Approach Staff Working Paper 2016-21 Fuchun Li, Hongyu Xiao We propose an early warning model for predicting the likelihood of a financial stress event for a given future time, and examine whether credit plays an important role in the model as a non-linear propagator of shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C14, G, G0, G01, G1, G17
July 21, 2010 Why Monetary Policy Matters: A Canadian Perspective This paper provides a non-technical introduction to monetary policy - what it is, how it works, and why it matters. It discusses inflation volatility and why this is damaging to the economy, as well as why increased stability of output growth is desirable. Content Type(s): Publications, Books and monographs