Are Working Hours Complements in Production? Staff working paper 2022-47 Lin Shao, Faisal Sohail, Emircan Yurdagul Using Canadian matched employer-employee data, we show that working hours of different workers are gross complements in production rather than perfect substitutes, as is typically assumed by macroeconomic models of production. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E23, J, J2, J22, J23, J3, J31 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
The Extensive Margin of Trade and Monetary Policy Staff working paper 2018-37 Yuko Imura, Malik Shukayev This paper studies the effects of monetary policy shocks on firms’ participation in exporting. We develop a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which heterogeneous firms make forward-looking decisions on whether to participate in the export market and prices are staggered across firms and time. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, F, F1, F12, F4, F44 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Should Central Banks Worry About Nonlinearities of their Large-Scale Macroeconomic Models? Staff working paper 2017-21 Vadym Lepetyuk, Lilia Maliar, Serguei Maliar How wrong could policymakers be when using linearized solutions to their macroeconomic models instead of nonlinear global solutions? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, C63, C68, E, E3, E31, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
What do high-frequency expenditure network data reveal about spending and inflation during COVID‑19? Staff analytical note 2020-20 Kim Huynh, Helen Lao, Patrick Sabourin, Angelika Welte The official consumer price index (CPI) inflation measure, based on a fixed basket set before the COVID 19 pandemic, may not fully reflect what consumers are currently experiencing. We partnered with Statistics Canada to construct a more representative index for the pandemic with weights based on real-time transaction and survey data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E3, E31, E4, E42, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Nowcasting Canadian Economic Activity in an Uncertain Environment Staff discussion paper 2018-9 Tony Chernis, Rodrigo Sekkel This paper studies short-term forecasting of Canadian real GDP and its expenditure components using combinations of nowcasts from different models. Starting with a medium-sized data set, we use a suite of common nowcasting tools for quarterly real GDP and its expenditure components. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E37, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Privacy in CBDC technology Staff analytical note 2020-9 Sriram Darbha, Rakesh Arora Privacy is a key aspect of a potential central bank digital currency system. We outline different technical choices to enact various privacy models while complying with the appropriate regulations. We develop a framework to evaluate privacy models and list key risks and trade-offs in privacy design. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E51, O, O3 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Trade and Diffusion of Embodied Technology: An Empirical Analysis Staff working paper 2023-21 Stephen Ayerst, Faisal Ibrahim, Gaelan MacKenzie, Swapnika Rachapalli Using data from patents, citations, inter-sectoral sales and customs, we examine the international diffusion of technology through imports of sectoral knowledge and production inputs. We develop an instrumental variable strategy to identify the causal effects of technology embodied in imports on innovation and diffusion outcomes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F14, F6, F61, O, O1, O19, O3, O31, O33 Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity, International trade, finance and competitiveness
March 9, 2010 An Uncertain Past: Data Revisions and Monetary Policy in Canada Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2010 Greg Tkacz Many important economic variables are subject to revision. This article explains how, when, and why such revisions occur; how revisions to Canadian gross domestic product (GDP) compare with GDP revisions in some other countries; which GDP components are subject to the largest revisions; and how data revisions can affect policy decisions. The author finds that revisions to Canadian GDP tend to be smaller, on average, than those of some other countries, and that among the GDP components, exports and imports are most heavily revised. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
Bank Screening Heterogeneity Staff working paper 2016-56 Thibaut Duprey Production efficiency and financial stability do not necessarily go hand in hand. With heterogeneity in banks’ abilities to screen borrowers, the market for loans becomes segmented and a self-competition mechanism arises. When heterogeneity increases, the intensive and extensive margins have opposite effects. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G2, G21, L, L1, L13 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit
Calibrating the Magnitude of the Countercyclical Capital Buffer Using Market-Based Stress Tests Staff working paper 2018-54 Maarten van Oordt How much capital do banks need as a buffer to absorb severe shocks? By using historical stock market data, market-based stress tests help estimate the magnitude of capital buffers necessary to absorb severe but plausible shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight