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2111 Results

March 25, 2022

A world of difference: Households, the pandemic and monetary policy

Remarks (delivered virtually) Sharon Kozicki Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference San Francisco, California
Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki discusses how differences among households affect economic outcomes, how shocks can have important uneven effects across households, and why these things matter for monetary policy.
November 11, 2008

The Market Impact of Forward-Looking Policy Statements: Transparency vs. Predictability

Central banks continuously strive to improve how they communicate to financial markets and the public in order to increase transparency. For this reason, many central banks have begun to include guidance on the policy rate in the form of forward-looking statements in their communications. This article examines the debate over the usefulness of providing such statements from both theoretical and empirical standpoints. The evidence presented here suggests that the use of forward-looking statements in Bank of Canada communications has made the Bank more predictable, but not necessarily more transparent.
May 21, 2003

Conference Summary: Price Adjustment and Monetary Policy

The 2002 Bank of Canada Conference focused on price adjustment, a critically important issue for monetary policy. Given the acceptance throughout the 1990s and 2000s of the existence of price stickiness in goods or labour markets, or both, and of the important role that monetary policy can play in an economy, the time was right for a conference that would focus on current developments in this area of research, particularly within a Canadian context. Conference papers covering both theoretical and empirical studies explored such themes as sources of the persistence of inflation, forward-looking models of inflation, models of inflation in open economies, the macroeconomic effects of technology shocks, and models of the interaction between wages, prices, and real economic outcomes.

Gazing at r-star: A Hysteresis Perspective

Staff working paper 2023-5 Paul Beaudry, Katya Kartashova, Césaire Meh
Many explanations for the decline in real interest rates over the last 30 years point to the role that population aging or rising income inequality plays in increasing the long-run aggregate demand for assets. Notwithstanding the importance of such factors, the starting point of this paper is to show that the major change driving household asset demand over this period is instead an increased desire—for a given age and income level—to hold assets.

What do high-frequency expenditure network data reveal about spending and inflation during COVID‑19?

Staff analytical note 2020-20 Kim Huynh, Helen Lao, Patrick Sabourin, Angelika Welte
The official consumer price index (CPI) inflation measure, based on a fixed basket set before the COVID 19 pandemic, may not fully reflect what consumers are currently experiencing. We partnered with Statistics Canada to construct a more representative index for the pandemic with weights based on real-time transaction and survey data.

The Productivity Slowdown in Canada: An ICT Phenomenon?

Staff working paper 2019-2 Jeffrey Mollins, Pierre St-Amant
We ask whether a weaker contribution of information and communication technologies (ICT) to productivity growth could account for the productivity slowdown observed in Canada since the early 2000s. To answer this question, we consider several methods capturing channels through which ICT could affect aggregate productivity growth.

The impact of the Bank of Canada’s Government Bond Purchase Program

We assess the response of Government of Canada bond yields to the Bank of Canada’s initial announcement of the Government Bond Purchase Program (GBPP) as well as to the Bank’s later GBPP purchase operations.
February 21, 2013

The U.S. Recovery from the Great Recession: A Story of Debt and Deleveraging

The U.S. recovery from the Great Recession has been slow relative to other postwar-era recoveries in the United States. Encouraged by loose lending standards in the pre-crisis period, U.S. households took on unsustainable amounts of debt, making them vulnerable to adverse shocks. Subsequently, a considerable drop in asset prices forced households to repair their balance sheets. While there has been progress in household deleveraging, the government sector now needs to delever, which will restrain growth over the next few years.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E6, E60

Finding a Needle in a Haystack: A Machine Learning Framework for Anomaly Detection in Payment Systems

Staff working paper 2024-15 Ajit Desai, Anneke Kosse, Jacob Sharples
Our layered machine learning framework can enhance real-time transaction monitoring in high-value payment systems, which are a central piece of a country’s financial infrastructure. When tested on data from Canadian payment systems, it demonstrated potential for accurately identifying anomalous transactions. This framework could help improve cyber and operational resilience of payment systems.
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