The impact of the Bank of Canada’s Government Bond Purchase Program Staff analytical note 2021-23 Rohan Arora, Sermin Gungor, Joe Nesrallah, Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Jonathan Witmer We assess the response of Government of Canada bond yields to the Bank of Canada’s initial announcement of the Government Bond Purchase Program (GBPP) as well as to the Bank’s later GBPP purchase operations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E6, E63 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
What do high-frequency expenditure network data reveal about spending and inflation during COVID‑19? Staff analytical note 2020-20 Kim Huynh, Helen Lao, Patrick Sabourin, Angelika Welte The official consumer price index (CPI) inflation measure, based on a fixed basket set before the COVID 19 pandemic, may not fully reflect what consumers are currently experiencing. We partnered with Statistics Canada to construct a more representative index for the pandemic with weights based on real-time transaction and survey data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E3, E31, E4, E42, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
The Price Impact of Canadian Retaliatory Tariffs Staff working paper 2026-22 Alberto Cavallo, Olena Kostyshyna, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Matías Vieyra How do import tariffs affect retail prices? We combine daily product-level posted prices from seven major Canadian retailers with product-level tariff exposure to estimate tariff effects. Prices of tariffed goods rose gradually, peaking at 6% after three months, implying pass-through of roughly one quarter of the 25% tariff. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, F, F1, F13 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures
What Drives Bitcoin Fees? Using Segwit to Assess Bitcoin's Long-Run Sustainability Staff working paper 2022-2 Colin Brown, Jonathan Chiu, Thorsten Koeppl We explore what drives transaction fees in the Bitcoin system and consider whether Bitcoin can remain tamper proof in the long run. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, G, G2 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Nowcasting Canadian Economic Activity in an Uncertain Environment Staff discussion paper 2018-9 Tony Chernis, Rodrigo Sekkel This paper studies short-term forecasting of Canadian real GDP and its expenditure components using combinations of nowcasts from different models. Starting with a medium-sized data set, we use a suite of common nowcasting tools for quarterly real GDP and its expenditure components. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E37, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Cash Versus Card: Payment Discontinuities and the Burden of Holding Coins Staff working paper 2017-47 Heng Chen, Kim Huynh, Oz Shy Cash is the preferred method of payment for small value transactions generally less than $25. We provide insight to this finding with a new theoretical model that characterizes and compares consumers’ costs of paying with cash to paying with cards for each transaction. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D0, D03, E, E4, E42 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Retail payments
How Far Do Canadians Need to Travel to Access Cash? Staff discussion paper 2023-28 Heng Chen, Daneal O’Habib, Hongyu Xiao This paper develops a travel-based metric to measure Canadians’ access to cash from automated banking machines (ABMs) and financial institution branches. We find that, overall, access to cash remained stable between 2019 and 2022. The total number of ABMs in Canada increased by 3.7% and the total number of branches decreased by 5.2% during that period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, J, J1, J15, R, R5, R51 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes
February 21, 2013 The U.S. Recovery from the Great Recession: A Story of Debt and Deleveraging Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2012-2013 Brady Lavender, Nicolas Parent The U.S. recovery from the Great Recession has been slow relative to other postwar-era recoveries in the United States. Encouraged by loose lending standards in the pre-crisis period, U.S. households took on unsustainable amounts of debt, making them vulnerable to adverse shocks. Subsequently, a considerable drop in asset prices forced households to repair their balance sheets. While there has been progress in household deleveraging, the government sector now needs to delever, which will restrain growth over the next few years. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E6, E60
The Extensive Margin of Trade and Monetary Policy Staff working paper 2018-37 Yuko Imura, Malik Shukayev This paper studies the effects of monetary policy shocks on firms’ participation in exporting. We develop a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which heterogeneous firms make forward-looking decisions on whether to participate in the export market and prices are staggered across firms and time. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, F, F1, F12, F4, F44 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Digitalization and Inflation: A Review of the Literature Staff analytical note 2017-20 Karyne B. Charbonneau, Alexa Evans, Subrata Sarker, Lena Suchanek In the past few years, many have postulated that the possible disinflationary effects of digitalization could explain the subdued inflation in advanced economies. In this note, we review the evidence found in the literature. We look at three main channels. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, E, E3, E31, L, L8, L81, O, O3, O33 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity