Quantitative Easing in a Small Open Economy: An International Portfolio Balancing Approach Staff working paper 2016-55 Serdar Kabaca This paper studies the effects of quantitative easing (QE) in a small open economy dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with international portfolio balancing. Portfolios are classified as imperfectly substitutable short-term and long-term subportfolios, each including domestic and foreign bonds. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Canadians’ access to cash in 2023 Staff analytical note 2025-13 Heng Chen, Hongyu Xiao, Daneal O’Habib, Stephen Wild This study updates our measure of Canadians' access to cash through automated banking machines and financial institution branches. We find that in 2023 overall access to cash remains stable, while rural Canadians continue having less access. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): J, J1, J15, O, O1, R, R5, R51 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes
The Case of Serial Disappointment Staff analytical note 2016-10 Justin-Damien Guénette, Nicholas Labelle, Martin Leduc, Lori Rennison Similar to those of other forecasters, the Bank of Canada’s forecasts of global GDP growth have shown persistent negative errors over the past five years. This is in contrast to the pre-crisis period, when errors were consistently positive as global GDP surprised to the upside. All major regions have contributed to the forecast errors observed since 2011, although the United States has been the most persistent source of notable errors. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E6, E66, F, F0, F01 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
The Role of Public Money in the Digital Age Staff discussion paper 2024-11 Francisco Rivadeneyra, Scott Hendry, Alejandro García A well-functioning monetary system is characterized by public and private forms of money that exchange at par as value flows freely between them. A relevant retail public money—whether in the form of cash, a central bank digital currency or both—is a necessary component of such a monetary system. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E50, E58 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures, Retail payments
On the Fragility of DeFi Lending Staff working paper 2023-14 Jonathan Chiu, Emre Ozdenoren, Kathy Yuan, Shengxing Zhang We develop a dynamic model to capture key features of decentralized finance lending. We identify a price-liquidity feedback: the market outcome in any given period depends on agents' expectations about lending activities in future periods, with higher future price expectations leading to more lending and higher prices in that period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G10 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
Non-Performing Loans, Fiscal Costs and Credit Expansion in China Staff working paper 2018-53 Huixin Bi, Yongquan Cao, Wei Dong This paper studies how the credit expansion policy pursued by the Chinese government in an effort to stimulate its economy in the post-crisis period affects bank–firm loan contracts and the macroeconomy. We build a structural model with financial frictions in which the optimal loan contract reflects the trade-off between leverage and the probability of default. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E6, E62 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
The Causal Impact of Migration on US Trade: Evidence from Political Refugees Staff working paper 2017-49 Walter Steingress Immigrants can increase international trade by shifting preferences towards the goods of their country of origin and by reducing bilateral transaction costs. Using geographical variation across U.S. states for the period 2008 to 2013, I estimate the respective causal impact of immigrants on U.S. exports and imports. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F14, F2, F22, J, J6, J61 Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Variance Premium, Downside Risk and Expected Stock Returns Staff working paper 2017-58 Bruno Feunou, Ricardo Lopez Aliouchkin, Roméo Tedongap, Lai Xi We decompose total variance into its bad and good components and measure the premia associated with their fluctuations using stock and option data from a large cross-section of firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation
June 8, 2015 Panel remarks for round table discussion at the 21st Conference of Montréal Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins 21st Conference of Montréal: International Economic Forum of the Americas Montréal, Quebec Introduction Thank you for the invitation to be here today. I’m honoured to be part of this panel. It’s been more than seven years since the global financial crisis began, and we’re still coping with its aftermath. One of the consequences of the crisis has been a disruption of financial globalization. Global capital flows—to give […] Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
March 12, 2012 Promoting Growth, Mitigating Cycles and Inequality: The Role of Price and Financial Stability Remarks Tiff Macklem Brazil-Canada Chamber of Commerce São Paulo, Brazil Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how price and financial stability help promote growth and mitigate economic cycles and inequality. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks