Assessing global potential output growth: April 2026 Staff analytical paper 2026-20 Daniel de Munnik, Kristina Hess, Walter Muiruri, Tuuli McCully, Faiza Noor, Sabreena Obaid, Andrew Plummer, Louis Poirier, Abeer Reza, Jillian Schwartz We present the annual update of the Bank of Canada staff estimates for global potential output growth. These estimates served as key inputs to the analysis supporting the April 2026 Monetary Policy Report. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, F, F0, F1, O, O3, O33, O4 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
The impact of the Bank of Canada’s Government Bond Purchase Program Staff analytical note 2021-23 Rohan Arora, Sermin Gungor, Joe Nesrallah, Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Jonathan Witmer We assess the response of Government of Canada bond yields to the Bank of Canada’s initial announcement of the Government Bond Purchase Program (GBPP) as well as to the Bank’s later GBPP purchase operations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E6, E63 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
What do high-frequency expenditure network data reveal about spending and inflation during COVID‑19? Staff analytical note 2020-20 Kim Huynh, Helen Lao, Patrick Sabourin, Angelika Welte The official consumer price index (CPI) inflation measure, based on a fixed basket set before the COVID 19 pandemic, may not fully reflect what consumers are currently experiencing. We partnered with Statistics Canada to construct a more representative index for the pandemic with weights based on real-time transaction and survey data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E3, E31, E4, E42, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
June 11, 2015 Assessing Vulnerabilities in the Canadian Financial System Financial System Review - June 2015 Ian Christensen, Gitanjali Kumar, Césaire Meh, Lorie Zorn The authors present the four common cyclical vulnerabilities that appear in financial systems, providing examples of qualitative and quantitative indicators used to monitor these vulnerabilities across different sectors. They also discuss other inputs to the vulnerability assessment and to the internal process used at the Bank of Canada for identifying, evaluating and communicating vulnerabilities and risks, and highlight some of the key challenges in assessing financial system vulnerabilities and risks. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G10, G2, G20
How Far Do Canadians Need to Travel to Access Cash? Staff discussion paper 2023-28 Heng Chen, Daneal O’Habib, Hongyu Xiao This paper develops a travel-based metric to measure Canadians’ access to cash from automated banking machines (ABMs) and financial institution branches. We find that, overall, access to cash remained stable between 2019 and 2022. The total number of ABMs in Canada increased by 3.7% and the total number of branches decreased by 5.2% during that period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, J, J1, J15, R, R5, R51 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes
February 21, 2013 The U.S. Recovery from the Great Recession: A Story of Debt and Deleveraging Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2012-2013 Brady Lavender, Nicolas Parent The U.S. recovery from the Great Recession has been slow relative to other postwar-era recoveries in the United States. Encouraged by loose lending standards in the pre-crisis period, U.S. households took on unsustainable amounts of debt, making them vulnerable to adverse shocks. Subsequently, a considerable drop in asset prices forced households to repair their balance sheets. While there has been progress in household deleveraging, the government sector now needs to delever, which will restrain growth over the next few years. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E6, E60
Does US or Canadian Macro News Drive Canadian Bond Yields? Staff analytical note 2018-38 Bruno Feunou, Rodrigo Sekkel, Morvan Nongni-Donfack We show that a large share of low-frequency (quarterly) movements in Canadian government bond yields can be explained by macroeconomic news, even though high-frequency (daily) changes are driven by other shocks. Furthermore, we show that US macro news—not domestic news— explains most of the quarterly variation in Canadian bond yields. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E4, E43 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
November 17, 2011 Liquidity Provision and Collateral Haircuts in Payments Systems Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2011 James Chapman, Jonathan Chiu, Miguel Molico Central banks play a pivotal role in well-functioning payments systems by providing liquidity via collateralized lending. This article discusses the role of collateral and haircut policy in central bank lending, as well as the distinguishing features of the central bank’s policy relative to private sector practices. It presents a model that explicitly incorporates the unique role of central banks in the payments system and argues that central banks must consider how their haircut policies affect the relative price and liquidity of assets, the market’s asset allocation, and the likelihood of participants to default. Furthermore, under extraordinary circumstances, there is a rationale for the central bank to temporarily reduce haircuts or broaden the list of eligible collateral to mitigate the shortage of liquidity in the market. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
Housing Price Network Effects from Public Transit Investment: Evidence from Vancouver Staff working paper 2018-18 Alex Chernoff, Andrea Craig In this paper, we estimate the effect on housing prices of the expansion of the Vancouver SkyTrain rapid transit network during the period 2001–11. We extend the canonical residential sorting equilibrium framework to include commuting time in the household utility function. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): H, H4, H41, R, R2, R21, R4, R41 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Finding a Needle in a Haystack: A Machine Learning Framework for Anomaly Detection in Payment Systems Staff working paper 2024-15 Ajit Desai, Anneke Kosse, Jacob Sharples Our layered machine learning framework can enhance real-time transaction monitoring in high-value payment systems, which are a central piece of a country’s financial infrastructure. When tested on data from Canadian payment systems, it demonstrated potential for accurately identifying anomalous transactions. This framework could help improve cyber and operational resilience of payment systems. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C4, C45, C5, C55, D, D8, D83, E, E4, E42 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures