Should Central Banks Worry About Nonlinearities of their Large-Scale Macroeconomic Models? Staff working paper 2017-21 Vadym Lepetyuk, Lilia Maliar, Serguei Maliar How wrong could policymakers be when using linearized solutions to their macroeconomic models instead of nonlinear global solutions? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, C63, C68, E, E3, E31, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
The impact of the Bank of Canada’s Government Bond Purchase Program Staff analytical note 2021-23 Rohan Arora, Sermin Gungor, Joe Nesrallah, Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Jonathan Witmer We assess the response of Government of Canada bond yields to the Bank of Canada’s initial announcement of the Government Bond Purchase Program (GBPP) as well as to the Bank’s later GBPP purchase operations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E6, E63 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Gazing at r-star: A Hysteresis Perspective Staff working paper 2023-5 Paul Beaudry, Katya Kartashova, Césaire Meh Many explanations for the decline in real interest rates over the last 30 years point to the role that population aging or rising income inequality plays in increasing the long-run aggregate demand for assets. Notwithstanding the importance of such factors, the starting point of this paper is to show that the major change driving household asset demand over this period is instead an increased desire—for a given age and income level—to hold assets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E3, E31, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58, E6, E62, G, G5, G51, H, H6 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
The Productivity Slowdown in Canada: An ICT Phenomenon? Staff working paper 2019-2 Jeffrey Mollins, Pierre St-Amant We ask whether a weaker contribution of information and communication technologies (ICT) to productivity growth could account for the productivity slowdown observed in Canada since the early 2000s. To answer this question, we consider several methods capturing channels through which ICT could affect aggregate productivity growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, O, O4, O41, O47 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
Nowcasting Canadian Economic Activity in an Uncertain Environment Staff discussion paper 2018-9 Tony Chernis, Rodrigo Sekkel This paper studies short-term forecasting of Canadian real GDP and its expenditure components using combinations of nowcasts from different models. Starting with a medium-sized data set, we use a suite of common nowcasting tools for quarterly real GDP and its expenditure components. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E37, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
March 9, 2010 An Uncertain Past: Data Revisions and Monetary Policy in Canada Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2010 Greg Tkacz Many important economic variables are subject to revision. This article explains how, when, and why such revisions occur; how revisions to Canadian gross domestic product (GDP) compare with GDP revisions in some other countries; which GDP components are subject to the largest revisions; and how data revisions can affect policy decisions. The author finds that revisions to Canadian GDP tend to be smaller, on average, than those of some other countries, and that among the GDP components, exports and imports are most heavily revised. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
Are Temporary Oil Supply Shocks Real? Staff working paper 2022-52 Johan Brannlund, Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Reinhard Ellwanger Hurricanes disrupt oil production in the Gulf of Mexico because producers shut in oil platforms to safeguard lives and prevent damage. We examine the effects of these temporary oil supply shocks on real economic activity in the United States. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, Q, Q3, Q31, Q4, Q41, Q43 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Stagflation and Topsy-Turvy Capital Flows Staff working paper 2022-46 Julien Bengui, Louphou Coulibaly Unregulated capital flows are likely excessive during a stagflation episode, owing to a macroeconomic externality operating through the economy’s supply side. Inflows raise domestic wages and cause unwelcome upward pressure on firm costs, yet market forces likely generate such inflows. Optimal capital flow management instead requires net outflows. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D6, D62, E, E5, E52, F, F3, F32, F38, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Finding a Needle in a Haystack: A Machine Learning Framework for Anomaly Detection in Payment Systems Staff working paper 2024-15 Ajit Desai, Anneke Kosse, Jacob Sharples Our layered machine learning framework can enhance real-time transaction monitoring in high-value payment systems, which are a central piece of a country’s financial infrastructure. When tested on data from Canadian payment systems, it demonstrated potential for accurately identifying anomalous transactions. This framework could help improve cyber and operational resilience of payment systems. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C4, C45, C5, C55, D, D8, D83, E, E4, E42 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Privacy in CBDC technology Staff analytical note 2020-9 Sriram Darbha, Rakesh Arora Privacy is a key aspect of a potential central bank digital currency system. We outline different technical choices to enact various privacy models while complying with the appropriate regulations. We develop a framework to evaluate privacy models and list key risks and trade-offs in privacy design. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E51, O, O3 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures