June 21, 2006 Ownership Concentration and Competition in Banking Markets Financial System Review - June 2006 Alexandra Lai, Raphael Solomon Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
May 11, 2017 Why Is Global Business Investment So Weak? Some Insights from Advanced Economies Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2017 Robert Fay, Justin-Damien Guénette, Martin Leduc, Louis Morel Various drivers of business investment can be used to explain the underwhelming performance of investment in advanced economies since the global financial crisis, particularly since 2014. The slow growth in aggregate demand cannot by itself explain the full extent of the recent weakness in investment, which appears to be linked primarily to the collapse of global commodity prices and a rise in economic uncertainty. Looking ahead, business investment growth is likely to remain slower than in the pre-crisis period, largely because of structural factors such as population aging. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Economic models, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, D, D2, D24, D8, D80, E, E2, E22, F, F0, F01, G, G3, G31
2020 US Neutral Rate Assessment Staff Discussion Paper 2020-12 James Bootsma, Thomas J. Carter, Xin Scott Chen, Christopher Hajzler, Argyn Toktamyssov This paper presents Bank of Canada staff’s current assessment of the US neutral rate, along with a newly developed set of models on which that assessment is based. The overall assessment is that the US neutral rate currently lies in a range of 1.75 to 2.75 percent. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41
Blockchain-Based Settlement for Asset Trading Staff Working Paper 2018-45 Jonathan Chiu, Thorsten Koeppl Can securities be settled on a blockchain and, if so, what are the gains relative to existing settlement systems? We consider a blockchain that ensures delivery versus payment by linking transfers of assets with payments and operates using a proof-of-work protocol. The main benefit of a blockchain is faster and more flexible settlement, whereas the challenge is to avoid settlement fails when participants fork the chain to get rid of trading losses. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Economic models, Financial markets, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): G, G2, H, H4, P, P4, P43
Household Risk Management and Actual Mortgage Choice in the Euro Area Staff Working Paper 2014-1 Michael Ehrmann, Michael Ziegelmeyer Mortgages constitute the largest part of household debt. An essential choice when taking out a mortgage is between fixed-interest-rate mortgages (FRMs) and adjustable-interest-rate mortgages (ARMs). However, so far, no comprehensive cross‐country study has analyzed what determines household demand for mortgage types, a task that this paper takes up using new data for the euro area. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E4, E43, E5, E52, G, G2, G21
Monetary Policy Independence and the Strength of the Global Financial Cycle Staff Working Paper 2020-25 Christian Friedrich, Pierre Guérin, Danilo Leiva-Leon We propose a new strength measure of the global financial cycle by estimating a regime-switching factor model on cross-border equity flows for 61 countries. We then assess how the strength of the global financial cycle affects monetary policy independence, which is defined as the response of central banks' policy interest rates to exogenous changes in inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Exchange rate regimes, Financial system regulation and policies, International financial markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5, F, F3, F32, F4, F42, G, G1, G15, G18
Short-Term Forecasting of the Japanese Economy Using Factor Models Staff Working Paper 2012-7 Claudia Godbout, Marco J. Lombardi While the usefulness of factor models has been acknowledged over recent years, little attention has been devoted to the forecasting power of these models for the Japanese economy. In this paper, we aim at assessing the relative performance of factor models over different samples, including the recent financial crisis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C50, C53, E, E3, E37, E4, E47
Credit Conditions and Consumption, House Prices and Debt: What Makes Canada Different? Staff Working Paper 2015-40 John Muellbauer, Pierre St-Amant, David Williams There is widespread agreement that, in the United States, higher house prices raise consumption via collateral or possibly wealth effects. The presence of similar channels in Canada would have important implications for monetary policy transmission. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Domestic demand and components, Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E0, E02, E2, E21, E4, E44, G, G2, G21, R, R2, R21, R3, R31
Forecasting Commodity Prices: GARCH, Jumps, and Mean Reversion Staff Working Paper 2006-14 Jean-Thomas Bernard, Lynda Khalaf, Maral Kichian, Sebastien McMahon Fluctuations in the prices of various natural resource products are of concern in both policy and business circles; hence, it is important to develop accurate price forecasts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, C53, E, E3, E37
Macroprudential Regulation and Systemic Capital Requirements Staff Working Paper 2010-4 Céline Gauthier, Alfred Lehar, Moez Souissi In the aftermath of the financial crisis, there is interest in reforming bank regulation such that capital requirements are more closely linked to a bank's contribution to the overall risk of the financial system. In our paper we compare alternative mechanisms for allocating the overall risk of a banking system to its member banks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, C8, C81, E, E4, E44, G, G2, G21