Estimating the Fractional Order of Integration of Interest Rates Using a Wavelet OLS Estimator Staff Working Paper 2000-5 Greg Tkacz The debate on the order of integration of interest rates has long focused on the I(1) versus I(0) distinction. In this paper, we use instead the wavelet OLS estimator of Jensen (1999) to estimate the fractional integration parameters of several interest rates for the United States and Canada from 1948 to 1999. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, E, E4, E43
Trends in Firm Entry and New Entrepreneurship in Canada Staff Discussion Paper 2015-11 Shutao Cao, Mohanad Salameh, Mai Seki, Pierre St-Amant Recently released data show downward trends for both the firm entry rate and the rate of new entrepreneurship since the early 1980s in Canada. This paper documents these trends and discusses potential explanations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Market structure and pricing, Productivity JEL Code(s): L, L1, L11, M, M1, M13
A Market Microstructure Analysis of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Canada Staff Working Paper 2002-16 Chris D'Souza This paper clarifies the role and the impact of foreign exchange dealers in the relationship between foreign exchange intervention and nominal exchange rates using a unique dataset that disaggregates trades by dealer and by type of trade. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Financial institutions, Financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, G, G1, G14, G2, G21
May 11, 2017 Why Is Global Business Investment So Weak? Some Insights from Advanced Economies Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2017 Robert Fay, Justin-Damien Guénette, Martin Leduc, Louis Morel Various drivers of business investment can be used to explain the underwhelming performance of investment in advanced economies since the global financial crisis, particularly since 2014. The slow growth in aggregate demand cannot by itself explain the full extent of the recent weakness in investment, which appears to be linked primarily to the collapse of global commodity prices and a rise in economic uncertainty. Looking ahead, business investment growth is likely to remain slower than in the pre-crisis period, largely because of structural factors such as population aging. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Economic models, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, D, D2, D24, D8, D80, E, E2, E22, F, F0, F01, G, G3, G31
Forecasting Canadian Time Series with the New Keynesian Model Staff Working Paper 2006-4 Ali Dib, Mohamed Gammoudi, Kevin Moran The authors document the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of the New Keynesian model for Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, E, E3, E32, E37
Can Capital Deepening Explain the Global Decline in Labor’s Share? Staff Working Paper 2019-3 Andrew Glover, Jacob Short We estimate an aggregate elasticity of substitution between capital and labor near or below one, which implies that capital deepening cannot explain the global decline in labor's share. Our methodology derives from transition paths in the neo-classical growth model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, International topics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E2, E22, E25, J, J3
Canadian Labour Market Dispersion: Mind the (Shrinking) Gap Staff Analytical Note 2016-3 David Amirault, Naveen Rai Shocks to a currency area can and often do have asymmetric impacts on its regions that, in the absence of perfect labour mobility, lead to gaps in relative labour market performance. Witness, for example, the effects of the 2008/09 recession and subsequent financial crisis in Europe on the dispersion of employment rates across the euro area – and to a lesser extent the United States. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): J, J0, J01, R, R2, R23
Blockchain-Based Settlement for Asset Trading Staff Working Paper 2018-45 Jonathan Chiu, Thorsten Koeppl Can securities be settled on a blockchain and, if so, what are the gains relative to existing settlement systems? We consider a blockchain that ensures delivery versus payment by linking transfers of assets with payments and operates using a proof-of-work protocol. The main benefit of a blockchain is faster and more flexible settlement, whereas the challenge is to avoid settlement fails when participants fork the chain to get rid of trading losses. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Economic models, Financial markets, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): G, G2, H, H4, P, P4, P43
Household Stockholding Behavior During the Great Financial Crisis Staff Working Paper 2015-15 Jie Zhou Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, this paper studies household stock market participation and trading behavior in 2007–09, a period that saw a major stock market downswing. The stock market participation rate fell after the market crash. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G11