The COVID-19 Consumption Game-Changer: Evidence from a Large-Scale Multi-Country Survey Staff working paper 2021-57 Alexander Hodbod, Cars Hommes, Stefanie J. Huber, Isabelle Salle A multi-country consumer survey investigates why and how much households decreased their consumption in five key sectors after pandemic-related restrictions were lifted in Europe in July 2020. Beyond infection risk and precautionary saving motives, households also reported not missing some consumption items, which may indicate preference shifts and structural changes in the post-COVID-19 economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D8, D81, D84, E, E2, E21, E6, E60, E7, E71 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Assessing the Impact of Demographic Composition on Productivity Staff discussion paper 2025-3 Justin-Damien Guénette, Lin Shao We examine how demographic factors influence potential output, focusing on how the age distribution of the working-age population and the old-age dependency ratio affect aggregate productivity. Following Feyrer (2007), we emphasize that the contribution to aggregate productivity varies by age group, with middle-aged individuals (aged 40 to 49) being the most productive. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): J, J1, J11, O, O4, O47, O5, O51 Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
Bouncing Back: How Mothballing Curbs Prices Staff working paper 2024-51 Thibaut Duprey, Artur Kotlicki, Daniel E. Rigobon, Philip Schnattinger We investigate the macroeconomic impacts of mothballed businesses—those that closed temporarily—on sectoral equilibrium prices after a negative demand shock. Our results suggest that pandemic fiscal support for temporary closures may have eased inflationary pressures. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C55, C8, C81, D, D2, D22, E, E3, E32 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
May 20, 2002 Trends in Productivity Growth in Canada Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2002 Allan Crawford This article describes the major trends in the growth of labour productivity in Canada since the early 1960s and summarizes our current knowledge about the causes of the historical patterns. Particular attention is given to the period since the mid-1990s during which productivity growth has been significantly higher in the United States than in Canada. The author reviews the empirical evidence on the contribution of information and communication technology to the recent difference between Canadian and U.S. rates of productivity growth. Other determinants of a country's productivity performance, such as human capital formation and openness to international trade, are also examined. The article concludes with an assessment of the prospects for an increase in the trend rate of productivity growth in Canada over the coming years. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
CANVAS: A Canadian Behavioral Agent-Based Model Staff working paper 2022-51 Cars Hommes, Mario He, Sebastian Poledna, Melissa Siqueira, Yang Zhang The Bank of Canada’s current suite of models faces challenges in addressing network effects that integrate household and firm-level heterogeneity and their behaviours. We develop CANVAS, a Canadian behavioural agent-based model to contribute to the Bank’s next-generation modelling effort. CANVAS improves forecasting performance and expands capacity for model-based scenario analysis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, D, D2, D22, D8, D83, E, E1, E17 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2024 update Staff analytical note 2024-9 Frida Adjalala, Felipe Alves, Hélène Desgagnés, Wei Dong, Dmitry Matveev, Laure Simon We assess both the US and Canadian nominal neutral rates to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, somewhat higher than the range of 2.0% to 3.0% in 2023. The assessed range is back to the level it was at in April 2019. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
On the Tail Risk Premium in the Oil Market Staff working paper 2017-46 Reinhard Ellwanger This paper shows that changes in market participants’ fear of rare events implied by crude oil options contribute to oil price volatility and oil return predictability. Using 25 years of historical data, we document economically large tail risk premia that vary substantially over time and significantly forecast crude oil futures and spot returns. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C58, D, D8, D84, E, E4, E44, G, G1, G12, G13, Q, Q4, Q43 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
The Canadian corporate investment gap Staff analytical note 2020-19 Chris D'Souza, Timothy Grieder, Daniel Hyun, Jonathan Witmer Business investment has been lower than expected in Canada and abroad since the financial crisis of 2007–09. This corporate investment gap is mirrored in firms’ other financing decisions, as they have increased cash holdings and dividend payments and decreased issuance of debt and equity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, D9, D92, G, G3, G31, G32 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
Assessing the effects of higher immigration on the Canadian economy and inflation Staff analytical note 2023-17 Julien Champagne, Erik Ens, Xing Guo, Olena Kostyshyna, Alexander Lam, Corinne Luu, Sarah Miller, Patrick Sabourin, Joshua Slive, Temel Taskin, Jaime Trujillo, Shu Lin Wee We assess the complex macroeconomic implications of Canada’s recent population increases. We find that newcomers significantly boost the non-inflationary, potential growth of the economy, but existing imbalances in the housing sector may be exacerbated. Greater housing supply is needed to complement the long-term economic benefits of population growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): A, A1, A10, E, E2, E20, E3, E31, J, J1, J11, J15 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Market structure of cryptoasset exchanges: Introduction, challenges and emerging trends Staff analytical note 2024-2 Vladimir Skavysh, Jacob Sharples, Sofia Priazhkina, Salman H. Hasham This paper provides an overview of cryptoasset exchanges. We contrast their design with exchanges in traditional financial markets and discuss emerging regulatory trends and innovations aimed at solving the problems cryptoasset exchanges face. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): G, G1, G15, L, L1 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech