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2166 Results

Anchored Inflation Expectations: What Recent Data Reveal

Staff working paper 2025-5 Olena Kostyshyna, Isabelle Salle, Hung Truong
We analyze micro-level data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations through the lens of a heterogeneous-expectations model to study how inflation expectations form over the business cycle. We provide new insights into how households form expectations, documenting that forecasting behaviours, attention and noise in beliefs vary across socio-demographic groups and correlate with views about monetary policy.

Limiting Sender’s Information in Bayesian Persuasion

Staff working paper 2019-10 Shota Ichihashi
This paper studies how the outcome of Bayesian persuasion depends on a sender’s information. I study a game in which, prior to the sender’s information disclosure, the designer can restrict the most informative signal that the sender can generate.

Did U.S. Consumers Respond to the 2014–2015 Oil Price Shock? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey

Staff working paper 2018-13 Patrick Alexander, Louis Poirier
The impact of oil price shocks on the U.S. economy is a topic of considerable debate. In this paper, we examine the response of U.S. consumers to the 2014–2015 negative oil price shock using representative survey data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey.

The Determinants of Consumers’ Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the US and Canada

Staff working paper 2020-52 Charles Bellemare, Rolande Kpekou Tossou, Kevin Moran
We compare the determinants of consumer inflation expectations in the US and Canada by analyzing two current surveys. We find that Canadian consumers rely more on professional forecasts and the history of actual inflation when forming their expectations, while US consumers rely more on their own lagged expectations.
May 16, 2013

Unconventional Monetary Policies: Evolving Practices, Their Effects and Potential Costs

Following the recent financial crisis, major central banks have introduced several types of unconventional monetary policy measures, including liquidity and credit facilities, asset purchases and forward guidance. To date, these measures appear to have been successful. They restored market functioning, facilitated the transmission of monetary policy and supported economic activity. They have potential costs, however, including challenges related to the greatly expanded balance sheets of central banks and the eventual exit from these measures, as well as the vulnerabilities that can arise from prolonged monetary accommodation.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E6, E65

The MacroFinancial Risk Assessment Framework (MFRAF), Version 2.0

Technical report No. 111 Jose Fique
This report provides a detailed technical description of the updated MacroFinancial Risk Assessment Framework (MFRAF), which replaces the version described in Gauthier, Souissi and Liu (2014) as the Bank of Canada’s stress-testing model for banks with a focus on domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs).

Are Working Hours Complements in Production?

Staff working paper 2022-47 Lin Shao, Faisal Sohail, Emircan Yurdagul
Using Canadian matched employer-employee data, we show that working hours of different workers are gross complements in production rather than perfect substitutes, as is typically assumed by macroeconomic models of production.
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