The Determinants of Consumers’ Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the US and Canada Staff working paper 2020-52 Charles Bellemare, Rolande Kpekou Tossou, Kevin Moran We compare the determinants of consumer inflation expectations in the US and Canada by analyzing two current surveys. We find that Canadian consumers rely more on professional forecasts and the history of actual inflation when forming their expectations, while US consumers rely more on their own lagged expectations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, D, D8, D83, D84, E, E3, E31 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Market structure of cryptoasset exchanges: Introduction, challenges and emerging trends Staff analytical note 2024-2 Vladimir Skavysh, Jacob Sharples, Sofia Priazhkina, Salman H. Hasham This paper provides an overview of cryptoasset exchanges. We contrast their design with exchanges in traditional financial markets and discuss emerging regulatory trends and innovations aimed at solving the problems cryptoasset exchanges face. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): G, G1, G15, L, L1 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
Understanding Post-COVID Inflation Dynamics Staff working paper 2022-50 Martin Harding, Jesper Lindé, Mathias Trabandt We propose a macroeconomic model with a nonlinear Phillips curve that has a flat slope when inflationary pressures are subdued and steepens when inflationary pressures are elevated. Our model can generate more sizable inflation surges due to cost-push and demand shocks than a standard linearized model when inflation is high. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E30, E31, E32, E37, E4, E44, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
February 10, 2011 Commodity Prices: The Long and the Short of It Remarks John Murray IPAC-Saskatchewan/Johnson/Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy Regina, Saskatchewan Commodity prices are once again making headlines. Some commodity prices, such as those for copper and cattle, have reached record highs; others are rising quickly and approaching previous peaks. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Trade and Diffusion of Embodied Technology: An Empirical Analysis Staff working paper 2023-21 Stephen Ayerst, Faisal Ibrahim, Gaelan MacKenzie, Swapnika Rachapalli Using data from patents, citations, inter-sectoral sales and customs, we examine the international diffusion of technology through imports of sectoral knowledge and production inputs. We develop an instrumental variable strategy to identify the causal effects of technology embodied in imports on innovation and diffusion outcomes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F14, F6, F61, O, O1, O19, O3, O31, O33 Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity, International trade, finance and competitiveness
August 15, 2001 Analyzing the Monetary Aggregates Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2001 Dinah Maclean In recent years, the Bank has put renewed emphasis on analyzing monetary variables and on developing models that incorporate money as an active part of the transmission mechanism. In this article, Dinah Maclean describes how the monetary aggregates are used in the formulation of monetary policy analysis at the Bank, outlining the key tools and models used. The most important money-based model currently in use is the M1-VECM. In this model, deviations in the money supply from the long-term demand for money cause changes in inflation. The author briefly describes the "active-money" paradigm underlying this model and explains the key equations within it. Other simpler empirical models are also outlined, including single-equation indicator models for output based on the narrow aggregates, a neural network, and a model based on the broader aggregate M2++. A detailed technical annex provides details on model equations and coefficient values. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
October 20, 2006 MUSE: The Bank of Canada's New Projection Model of the U.S. Economy Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2006 Marc-André Gosselin, René Lalonde, Nicolas Parent Staff projections provided for the Bank of Canada's monetary policy decision process take into account the integration of Canada's very open economy within the global economy, as well as its close real and financial linkages with the United States. To provide inputs for this projection, the Bank has developed several models, including MUSE, NEUQ (the New European Quarterly Model), and BoC-GEM (Bank of Canada Global Economy Model), to analyze and forecast economic developments in the rest of the world. The authors focus on MUSE, the model currently used to describe interaction among the principal U.S. economic variables, including gross domestic product, inflation, interest rates, and the exchange rate. Brief descriptions are also provided of NEUQ and BoC-GEM. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
Income Inequality in Canada Staff discussion paper 2022-16 Sarah Burkinshaw, Yaz Terajima, Carolyn A. Wilkins Data show that income inequality in Canada increased substantially during the 1980s and first half of the 1990s but has been relatively stable over the past 25 years. This increase was felt mainly by low-income earners and younger people, while older people benefited from higher retirement income. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, D6, D63, I, I2, I24, I3, I32, J, J3, J31, J32, N, N3, N32 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
November 15, 2001 Conference Summary: Revisiting the Case for Flexible Exchange Rates Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2001 Lawrence L. Schembri This article summarizes the proceedings of an international research conference hosted by the Bank of Canada in November 2000. The conference marked the fiftieth anniversary of Canada's adoption of a flexible exchange rate, and its title recognizes the seminal contribution of Professor Milton Friedman's article "The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates." His keynote address to the conference is also summarized in the article. The conference papers re-examine many of the arguments raised by Friedman using recent developments in economic theory and econometric techniques. They investigate the experience of a wide range of industrialized and emerging-market economies. The main findings are that a strong case can be made for flexible exchange rates in economies that are large commodity exporters and that have credible low-inflation monetary policies and relatively well-developed financial systems. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
A Fresh Look at the Publication and Citation Gap Between Men and Women: Insights from Economics and Political Science Staff working paper 2025-13 Daniel Stockemer, Gabriela Galassi, Engi Abou-El-Kheir In recent years, significant efforts have been made to attract more women into academia and to support their careers, with the goal of increasing their representation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): A, A1, A14, I, I2, I23, J, J1, J16, J4, J44, J7, J71 Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply