Measuring Systemic Importance of Financial Institutions: An Extreme Value Theory Approach Staff Working Paper 2011-19 Toni Gravelle, Fuchun Li In this paper, we define a financial institution’s contribution to financial systemic risk as the increase in financial systemic risk conditional on the crash of the financial institution. The higher the contribution is, the more systemically important is the institution for the system. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C5, C58, G, G2, G21, G3, G32
Canadian Labour Market Dispersion: Mind the (Shrinking) Gap Staff Analytical Note 2016-3 David Amirault, Naveen Rai Shocks to a currency area can and often do have asymmetric impacts on its regions that, in the absence of perfect labour mobility, lead to gaps in relative labour market performance. Witness, for example, the effects of the 2008/09 recession and subsequent financial crisis in Europe on the dispersion of employment rates across the euro area – and to a lesser extent the United States. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): J, J0, J01, R, R2, R23
Macroprudential Regulation and Systemic Capital Requirements Staff Working Paper 2010-4 Céline Gauthier, Alfred Lehar, Moez Souissi In the aftermath of the financial crisis, there is interest in reforming bank regulation such that capital requirements are more closely linked to a bank's contribution to the overall risk of the financial system. In our paper we compare alternative mechanisms for allocating the overall risk of a banking system to its member banks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, C8, C81, E, E4, E44, G, G2, G21
Stress Testing the Corporate Loans Portfolio of the Canadian Banking Sector Staff Working Paper 2006-47 Miroslav Misina, David Tessier, Shubhasis Dey Stress testing, at its most general level, is an investigation of the performance of an entity under abnormal operating conditions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, G, G2, G21, G3, G33
How to Predict Financial Stress? An Assessment of Markov Switching Models Staff Working Paper 2017-32 Benjamin Klaus, Thibaut Duprey This paper predicts phases of the financial cycle by using a continuous financial stress measure in a Markov switching framework. The debt service ratio and property market variables signal a transition to a high financial stress regime, while economic sentiment indicators provide signals for a transition to a tranquil state. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): C, C5, C54, G, G0, G01, G1, G15
February 21, 2013 Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2012-2013 This issue features a summary of the Bank’s annual conference, Financial Intermediation and Vulnerabilities, which took place in October 2012, as well as two articles that present analysis of international macroeconomic coordination since the global financial crisis and the U.S. recovery from the Great Recession. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
On the Value of Virtual Currencies Staff Working Paper 2016-42 Wilko Bolt, Maarten van Oordt This paper develops an economic framework to analyze the exchange rate of virtual currency. Three components are important: first, the current use of virtual currency to make payments; second, the decision of forward-looking investors to buy virtual currency (thereby effectively regulating its supply); and third, the elements that jointly drive future consumer adoption and merchant acceptance of virtual currency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Digital currencies and fintech, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E51, F, F3, F31, G, G1
Survey-Based Estimates of the Term Structure of Expected U.S. Inflation Staff Working Paper 2006-46 Sharon Kozicki, P. A. Tinsley Surveys provide direct information on expectations, but only short histories are available at quarterly frequencies or for long-horizon expectations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): E, E3, E5
Household Stockholding Behavior During the Great Financial Crisis Staff Working Paper 2015-15 Jie Zhou Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, this paper studies household stock market participation and trading behavior in 2007–09, a period that saw a major stock market downswing. The stock market participation rate fell after the market crash. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G11
Forward Guidance and Expectation Formation: A Narrative Approach Staff Working Paper 2020-40 Christopher S. Sutherland How exactly does forward guidance influence interest rate expectations? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Monetary policy, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, D84, E, E3, E37, E5, E52, E58