The impact of the Bank of Canada’s Government Bond Purchase Program Staff analytical note 2021-23 Rohan Arora, Sermin Gungor, Joe Nesrallah, Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Jonathan Witmer We assess the response of Government of Canada bond yields to the Bank of Canada’s initial announcement of the Government Bond Purchase Program (GBPP) as well as to the Bank’s later GBPP purchase operations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E6, E63 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
February 21, 2013 The U.S. Recovery from the Great Recession: A Story of Debt and Deleveraging Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2012-2013 Brady Lavender, Nicolas Parent The U.S. recovery from the Great Recession has been slow relative to other postwar-era recoveries in the United States. Encouraged by loose lending standards in the pre-crisis period, U.S. households took on unsustainable amounts of debt, making them vulnerable to adverse shocks. Subsequently, a considerable drop in asset prices forced households to repair their balance sheets. While there has been progress in household deleveraging, the government sector now needs to delever, which will restrain growth over the next few years. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E6, E60
Global Demand and Supply Sentiment: Evidence from Earnings Calls Staff working paper 2023-37 Temel Taskin, Franz Ulrich Ruch This paper quantifies global demand, supply and uncertainty shocks and compares two major global recessions: the 2008–09 Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. We use two alternate approaches to decompose economic shocks: text mining techniques on earnings calls transcripts and a structural Bayesian vector autoregression model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, E, E3, E32, G, G1, G10 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
May 23, 2004 Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2004 Cover page The Millennial Celebrations in Ancient Rome The coins pictured on the cover range from approximately 20 to 35 mm in diameter and form part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada. Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
March 9, 2010 An Uncertain Past: Data Revisions and Monetary Policy in Canada Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2010 Greg Tkacz Many important economic variables are subject to revision. This article explains how, when, and why such revisions occur; how revisions to Canadian gross domestic product (GDP) compare with GDP revisions in some other countries; which GDP components are subject to the largest revisions; and how data revisions can affect policy decisions. The author finds that revisions to Canadian GDP tend to be smaller, on average, than those of some other countries, and that among the GDP components, exports and imports are most heavily revised. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
Does US or Canadian Macro News Drive Canadian Bond Yields? Staff analytical note 2018-38 Bruno Feunou, Rodrigo Sekkel, Morvan Nongni-Donfack We show that a large share of low-frequency (quarterly) movements in Canadian government bond yields can be explained by macroeconomic news, even though high-frequency (daily) changes are driven by other shocks. Furthermore, we show that US macro news—not domestic news— explains most of the quarterly variation in Canadian bond yields. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E4, E43 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
The Evolution of the Chinese Housing Market and Its Impact on Base Metal Prices Staff discussion paper 2016-7 Mark Kruger, Kun Mo, Benjamin Sawatzky The Chinese housing market has grown rapidly following its liberalization in the 1990s, generating significant economic activity and demand for base metals. In this paper, we discuss the evolution of the Chinese housing market and quantify its importance for the overall Chinese economy and its linkages to base metal prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): Q, Q3, Q31, R, R3, R31 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
June 8, 2023 Economic progress report: Are we entering a new era of higher interest rates? Remarks Paul Beaudry Greater Victoria Chamber of Commerce Victoria, British Columbia Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry discusses the latest interest rate decision and suggests reasons why longer-term interest rates could remain higher than they were before the pandemic. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
Unregulated Lending, Mortgage Regulations and Monetary Policy Staff working paper 2022-28 Ugochi Emenogu, Brian Peterson This paper evaluates the effectiveness of macroprudential policies when regulations are uneven across mortgage lender types. We look at credit tightening that results from macroprudential regulations and examine how much of it is counteracted by credit shifting to unregulated lenders. We also study the impact of monetary policy tightening when some lenders are unregulated. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E50, E52, E58, G, G2, G21, G23, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial system regulation and oversight, Household and business credit
Calibrating the Magnitude of the Countercyclical Capital Buffer Using Market-Based Stress Tests Staff working paper 2018-54 Maarten van Oordt How much capital do banks need as a buffer to absorb severe shocks? By using historical stock market data, market-based stress tests help estimate the magnitude of capital buffers necessary to absorb severe but plausible shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight