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3045 Results

September 14, 2016

(S)low for Long and Financial Stability

Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum City Lecture London, United Kingdom
Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins discusses the financial stability risks associated with slow growth and low interest rates, and explores strategies to mitigate them.

BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: Appendix and References

Technical Report No. 125 David Beers, Obiageri Ndukwe, Joe Berry
Since 2014, the Bank of Canada (BoC) has maintained a comprehensive database of sovereign defaults to systematically measure and aggregate the nominal value of the different types of sovereign government debt in default. The database is posted on the BoC’s website and is updated annually in partnership with the Bank of England (BoE).

Effects of macroprudential policy announcements on perceptions of systemic risks

We introduce a history of macroprudential policy (MPP) events in Canada since the 1980s. We document the short-run effects of MPP announcements on market-based measures of systemic risk and find that MPPs can influence the market’s perception of large banks’ resilience.

The Paul Storer Memorial Lecture—Cross-Border Trade Integration and Monetary Policy

Staff Discussion Paper 2016-20 Stephen S. Poloz
In this paper we explore the nexus between cross-border trade integration and monetary policy. We first review the evidence that trade liberalization has increased the degree of integration in North America and conclude that, while robust structural inferences remain elusive, there is sufficient supporting evidence for central banks to treat the issue seriously.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy, Trade integration JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37, E5, F, F1, F4, F41, F6

Evaluating Forecasts from Factor Models for Canadian GDP Growth and Core Inflation

Staff Working Paper 2007-8 Frédérick Demers, Calista Cheung
This paper evaluates the performance of static and dynamic factor models for forecasting Canadian real output growth and core inflation on a quarterly basis. We extract the common component from a large number of macroeconomic indicators, and use the estimates to compute out-of-sample forecasts under a recursive and a rolling scheme with different window sizes.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E37

Asymmetric Risks to the Economic Outlook Arising from Financial System Vulnerabilities

Staff Analytical Note 2018-6 Thibaut Duprey
When financial system vulnerabilities are elevated, they can give rise to asymmetric risks to the economic outlook. To illustrate this, I consider the economic outlook presented in the Bank of Canada’s October 2017 Monetary Policy Report in the context of two key financial system vulnerabilities: high levels of household indebtedness and housing market imbalances.
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