Search

Content Types

Subjects

Authors

Research Themes

JEL Codes

Sources

Published After

Published Before

2130 Results

Limiting Sender’s Information in Bayesian Persuasion

Staff working paper 2019-10 Shota Ichihashi
This paper studies how the outcome of Bayesian persuasion depends on a sender’s information. I study a game in which, prior to the sender’s information disclosure, the designer can restrict the most informative signal that the sender can generate.

Untapped Potential: Mobile Device Ownership and Mobile Payments in Canada

Staff working paper 2024-25 Marie-Hélène Felt, Angelika Welte, Katrina Talavera
We present a two-stage model of mobile phone and mobile payment usage that controls for selectivity. This reveals unobserved factors that work against having a mobile phone and toward mobile paying. Therefore, people who are unable to acquire or choose not to own a mobile device might have unmet payment needs.

Global Demand and Supply Sentiment: Evidence from Earnings Calls

Staff working paper 2023-37 Temel Taskin, Franz Ulrich Ruch
This paper quantifies global demand, supply and uncertainty shocks and compares two major global recessions: the 2008–09 Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. We use two alternate approaches to decompose economic shocks: text mining techniques on earnings calls transcripts and a structural Bayesian vector autoregression model.

Anchored Inflation Expectations: What Recent Data Reveal

Staff working paper 2025-5 Olena Kostyshyna, Isabelle Salle, Hung Truong
We analyze micro-level data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations through the lens of a heterogeneous-expectations model to study how inflation expectations form over the business cycle. We provide new insights into how households form expectations, documenting that forecasting behaviours, attention and noise in beliefs vary across socio-demographic groups and correlate with views about monetary policy.

Systemic Risk and Collateral Adequacy

Staff working paper 2019-23 Radoslav Raykov
Many derivatives markets use collateral requirements calculated with industry-standard but dated methods that are not designed with systemic risk in mind. This paper explores whether the conservative nature of conventional collateral requirements outweighs their lack of consideration of systemic risk.
August 4, 2010

Governor's Award

Annual research grants for a term of up to two years.

Understanding Post-COVID Inflation Dynamics

Staff working paper 2022-50 Martin Harding, Jesper Lindé, Mathias Trabandt
We propose a macroeconomic model with a nonlinear Phillips curve that has a flat slope when inflationary pressures are subdued and steepens when inflationary pressures are elevated. Our model can generate more sizable inflation surges due to cost-push and demand shocks than a standard linearized model when inflation is high.
August 15, 2001

Analyzing the Monetary Aggregates

In recent years, the Bank has put renewed emphasis on analyzing monetary variables and on developing models that incorporate money as an active part of the transmission mechanism. In this article, Dinah Maclean describes how the monetary aggregates are used in the formulation of monetary policy analysis at the Bank, outlining the key tools and models used. The most important money-based model currently in use is the M1-VECM. In this model, deviations in the money supply from the long-term demand for money cause changes in inflation. The author briefly describes the "active-money" paradigm underlying this model and explains the key equations within it. Other simpler empirical models are also outlined, including single-equation indicator models for output based on the narrow aggregates, a neural network, and a model based on the broader aggregate M2++. A detailed technical annex provides details on model equations and coefficient values.
Go To Page