Corporate Bond Spreads and the Business Cycle Staff Working Paper 2002-15 Zhiwei Zhang This paper examines the predictive power of credit spreads from the corporate bond market. The high-yield bond spread and investment-grade spread can explain 68 per cent and 42 per cent of output variations one year ahead, while the term spread based on government debts can explain only 12 per cent of them. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Monetary and financial indicators, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E5, G, G1
Redefining Financial Inclusion for a Digital Age: Implications for a Central Bank Digital Currency Staff Discussion Paper 2023-22 Alexandra Sutton-Lalani, Sebastian Hernandez, John Miedema, Jiamin Dai, Badr Omrane We explore quantitative and qualitative information about Canadians who face barriers to making digital payments. We also consider the implications of ongoing digitalization for modern financial inclusion and a potential central bank digital currency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Accessibility, Bank notes, Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Digitalization, Financial services JEL Code(s): A, A1, A14, E, E4, E42, E5, E50, I, I3, I31, O, O3, O33, O5, O51
Habit Formation and the Persistence of Monetary Shocks Staff Working Paper 2002-27 Hafedh Bouakez, Emanuela Cardia, Francisco Ruge-Murcia This paper studies the persistent effects of monetary shocks on output. Previous empirical literature documents this persistence, but standard general-equilibrium models with sticky prices fail to generate output responses beyond the duration of nominal contracts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E4, E5
On the Value of Virtual Currencies Staff Working Paper 2016-42 Wilko Bolt, Maarten van Oordt This paper develops an economic framework to analyze the exchange rate of virtual currency. Three components are important: first, the current use of virtual currency to make payments; second, the decision of forward-looking investors to buy virtual currency (thereby effectively regulating its supply); and third, the elements that jointly drive future consumer adoption and merchant acceptance of virtual currency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Digital currencies and fintech, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E51, F, F3, F31, G, G1
The Monetary Transmission Mechanism at the Sectoral Level Staff Working Paper 2001-27 Jean Farès, Gabriel Srour This paper relies on simple vector autoregressions to investigate the monetary transmission mechanism in broad sectors of the Canadian economy. Two types of disaggregation are considered: one at the level of final expenditures, and one at the level of production. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52
Survey-Based Estimates of the Term Structure of Expected U.S. Inflation Staff Working Paper 2006-46 Sharon Kozicki, P. A. Tinsley Surveys provide direct information on expectations, but only short histories are available at quarterly frequencies or for long-horizon expectations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): E, E3, E5
The Paul Storer Memorial Lecture—Cross-Border Trade Integration and Monetary Policy Staff Discussion Paper 2016-20 Stephen S. Poloz In this paper we explore the nexus between cross-border trade integration and monetary policy. We first review the evidence that trade liberalization has increased the degree of integration in North America and conclude that, while robust structural inferences remain elusive, there is sufficient supporting evidence for central banks to treat the issue seriously. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy, Trade integration JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37, E5, F, F1, F4, F41, F6
September 14, 2016 (S)low for Long and Financial Stability Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum City Lecture London, United Kingdom Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins discusses the financial stability risks associated with slow growth and low interest rates, and explores strategies to mitigate them. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability, Interest rates, International topics, Monetary policy implementation, Potential output
State Dependence in Fundamentals and Preferences Explains Risk-Aversion Puzzle Staff Working Paper 2005-9 Fousseni Chabi-Yo, René Garcia, Eric Renault The authors examine the ability of economic models with regime shifts to rationalize and explain the risk-aversion and pricing-kernel puzzles put forward in Jackwerth (2000). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G13
Searching for the Liquidity Effect in Canada Staff Working Paper 1994-12 Ben Fung, Rohit Gupta This paper examines the empirical evidence of the liquidity effect in Canada. In the presence of the liquidity effect, the initial impact of an unanticipated expansionary monetary policy is to lower nominal and real interest rates for a short period of time. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary aggregates