Beyond the averages: Measuring underlying wage growth using Labour Force Survey microdata Staff analytical note 2024-23 Fares Bounajm, Tessa Devakos, Gabriela Galassi When it comes to understanding the influence of labour costs on inflation, average wage growth is a misleading indicator because it is affected by composition effects. We propose an alternative measure that corrects for these effects by using microdata from the Labour Force Survey. Our new measure has many desirable properties, including reduced volatility and a better relationship with labour market fundamentals. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): C, C3, C31, J, J2, J21, J3, J30, J31, J8, J82 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Income Inequality in Canada Staff discussion paper 2022-16 Sarah Burkinshaw, Yaz Terajima, Carolyn A. Wilkins Data show that income inequality in Canada increased substantially during the 1980s and first half of the 1990s but has been relatively stable over the past 25 years. This increase was felt mainly by low-income earners and younger people, while older people benefited from higher retirement income. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, D6, D63, I, I2, I24, I3, I32, J, J3, J31, J32, N, N3, N32 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
A Fresh Look at the Publication and Citation Gap Between Men and Women: Insights from Economics and Political Science Staff working paper 2025-13 Daniel Stockemer, Gabriela Galassi, Engi Abou-El-Kheir In recent years, significant efforts have been made to attract more women into academia and to support their careers, with the goal of increasing their representation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): A, A1, A14, I, I2, I23, J, J1, J16, J4, J44, J7, J71 Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
August 23, 2003 Financial Developments in Canada: Past Trends and Future Challenges Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2003 Charles Freedman, Walter Engert Freedman and Engert focus on the changing pattern of lending and borrowing in Canada in the past thirty to forty years, including the types of financial instruments used and the relative roles of financial institutions and financial markets. They examine how borrowing mechanisms have changed over time and consider the challenges facing the Canadian financial sector, including whether our financial markets are in danger of disappearing because of the size and pre-eminence of U.S. financial markets. Some of the trends examined here include syndicated lending, securitization, and credit derivatives, a form of financial engineering that has become increasingly important in the last few years. They also study bond and equity markets to determine whether Canadian capital markets have been hollowed out or abandoned by Canadian firms and conclude that the data do not provide much support for that view. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
The Impact of a Trade War: Assessment of the Current Tariffs and Alternative Scenarios Staff analytical note 2019-20 Karyne B. Charbonneau This note uses Charbonneau and Landry’s (2018) framework to assess the direct impact of the current trade tensions on the Canadian and global economies, as well as possible implications if the conflict escalates further. Overall, my findings show that the estimated impact of current tariffs on real gross domestic product (GDP) remains relatively small, which is in line with the literature on gains from trade, but the impact on trade is much larger. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F13, F14, F15, F5, F50, F6, F62, F68 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
The Welfare Effects of Protection: A General Equilibrium Analysis of Canada’s National Policy Staff working paper 2017-18 Patrick Alexander, Ian Keay In this paper, we study the impact of Canada’s adoption of protectionist trade policy in 1879 on Canadian welfare. Under the National Policy the Canadian average weighted tariff increased from 14% to 21%. The conventional view is that this was a distortionary policy that negatively affected Canadian welfare. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, F14, F4, F42, F6, F60, N, N7, N71 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
The Distributional Effects of Conventional Monetary Policy and Quantitative Easing: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model Staff working paper 2019-6 Stefan Hohberger, Romanos Priftis, Lukas Vogel This paper compares the distributional effects of conventional monetary policy and quantitative easing (QE) within an estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
November 15, 2001 Conference Summary: Revisiting the Case for Flexible Exchange Rates Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2001 Lawrence L. Schembri This article summarizes the proceedings of an international research conference hosted by the Bank of Canada in November 2000. The conference marked the fiftieth anniversary of Canada's adoption of a flexible exchange rate, and its title recognizes the seminal contribution of Professor Milton Friedman's article "The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates." His keynote address to the conference is also summarized in the article. The conference papers re-examine many of the arguments raised by Friedman using recent developments in economic theory and econometric techniques. They investigate the experience of a wide range of industrialized and emerging-market economies. The main findings are that a strong case can be made for flexible exchange rates in economies that are large commodity exporters and that have credible low-inflation monetary policies and relatively well-developed financial systems. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
What cured the TSX Equity index after COVID-19? Staff analytical note 2021-3 Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Ryan Shotlander The TSX index rose by 9.5 percent in November 2020, adding large gains to an already sharp V-shaped recovery. The economic outlook improved at that time as well. We ask whether the stock market gains since last autumn are due to improving forecasts of firms’ earnings. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G14 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
The Role of International Financial Integration in Monetary Policy Transmission Staff working paper 2024-3 Jing Cynthia Wu, Yinxi Xie, Ji Zhang We propose an open-economy New Keynesian model with financial integration that allows financial intermediaries to hold foreign long-term bonds. We study the implications of financial integration on monetary policy transmission. Among various aspects of financial integration, the bond duration plays a major role. These results hold for conventional and unconventional monetary policies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, F, F3, F36, F4, F42 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness