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February 18, 2008

The Implications of Globalization for the Economy and Public Policy

Remarks Mark Carney British Columbia Chamber of Commerce and the Business Council of British Columbia Vancouver, British Columbia
I chose to speak about globalization at the outset of my tenure because it will continue to be one of the forces shaping our economy and economic policy for years to come. Steady advances in transportation, communication, and information technologies, underpinned by the more widespread adoption of free-market economic policies, are shrinking the globe and expanding the global economy.

Macroprudential FX Regulations: Shifting the Snowbanks of FX Vulnerability?

Can macroprudential foreign exchange (FX) regulations on banks reduce the financial and macroeconomic vulnerabilities created by borrowing in foreign currency? To evaluate the effectiveness and unintended consequences of macroprudential FX regulations, we develop a parsimonious model of bank and market lending in domestic and foreign currency and derive four predictions.

Corporate Bond Spreads and the Business Cycle

Staff Working Paper 2002-15 Zhiwei Zhang
This paper examines the predictive power of credit spreads from the corporate bond market. The high-yield bond spread and investment-grade spread can explain 68 per cent and 42 per cent of output variations one year ahead, while the term spread based on government debts can explain only 12 per cent of them.

A Market Microstructure Analysis of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Canada

Staff Working Paper 2002-16 Chris D'Souza
This paper clarifies the role and the impact of foreign exchange dealers in the relationship between foreign exchange intervention and nominal exchange rates using a unique dataset that disaggregates trades by dealer and by type of trade.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Financial institutions, Financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, G, G1, G14, G2, G21

Real Effects of Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: An Application to Mexico

Staff Working Paper 1999-10 Patrick Osakwe, Lawrence L. Schembri
This paper examines the impact of a collapsing exchange rate regime on output in an open economy in which shocks to capital flows and exports predominate. A sticky-price rational expectations model is used to compare the variability of output under the collapsing regime to that under alternative fixed and flexible regimes. Output is found to […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F4, F41

Evaluating Factor Models: An Application to Forecasting Inflation in Canada

Staff Working Paper 2001-18 Marc-André Gosselin, Greg Tkacz
This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of factor models for Canadian inflation. This type of model was introduced and examined by Stock and Watson (1999a), who have shown that it is quite promising for forecasting U.S. inflation.
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