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3031 Results

Heterogeneous Beliefs and Housing-Market Boom-Bust Cycles in a Small Open Economy

Staff Working Paper 2009-15 Hajime Tomura
This paper introduces heterogeneous beliefs among households in a small open economy model for the Canadian economy. The model suggests that simultaneous boom-bust cycles in house prices, output, investment, consumption and hours worked emerge when credit-constrained mortgage borrowers expect that future house prices will rise and this expectation is neither shared by savers nor realized ex-post.

Evaluating Forecasts from Factor Models for Canadian GDP Growth and Core Inflation

Staff Working Paper 2007-8 Frédérick Demers, Calista Cheung
This paper evaluates the performance of static and dynamic factor models for forecasting Canadian real output growth and core inflation on a quarterly basis. We extract the common component from a large number of macroeconomic indicators, and use the estimates to compute out-of-sample forecasts under a recursive and a rolling scheme with different window sizes.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E37
March 9, 2010

Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2010

Spring 2010
Discussion of recent research into three ways that oil-futures prices can improve our understanding of current conditions and future prospects in the global market for crude oil; inflation expectations and the conduct of monetary policy: a review of recent evidence and experience; examination of the influence of various forms of economic uncertainty on the performance of different classes of monetary policy rules; how, when, and why such revisions to many important economic variables occur.

A Distant-Early-Warning Model of Inflation Based on M1 Disequilibria

A vector error-correction model (VECM) that forecasts inflation between the current quarter and eight quarters ahead is found to provide significant leading information about inflation. The model focusses on the effects of deviations of M1 from its long-run demand but also includes, among other things, the influence of the exchange rate, a simple measure of the output gap and past prices.
February 18, 2008

The Implications of Globalization for the Economy and Public Policy

Remarks Mark Carney British Columbia Chamber of Commerce and the Business Council of British Columbia Vancouver, British Columbia
I chose to speak about globalization at the outset of my tenure because it will continue to be one of the forces shaping our economy and economic policy for years to come. Steady advances in transportation, communication, and information technologies, underpinned by the more widespread adoption of free-market economic policies, are shrinking the globe and expanding the global economy.

Credit Conditions and Consumption, House Prices and Debt: What Makes Canada Different?

Staff Working Paper 2015-40 John Muellbauer, Pierre St-Amant, David Williams
There is widespread agreement that, in the United States, higher house prices raise consumption via collateral or possibly wealth effects. The presence of similar channels in Canada would have important implications for monetary policy transmission.
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