Firm-Specific Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations Staff working paper 2016-51 Leonid Karasik, Danny Leung, Ben Tomlin In order to understand what drives aggregate fluctuations, many macroeconomic models point to aggregate shocks and discount the contribution of firm-specific shocks. Recent research from other developed countries, however, has found that aggregate fluctuations are in part driven by idiosyncratic shocks to large firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E23, E24, E3, L, L6 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Monetary Policy and Government Debt Dynamics Without Commitment Staff working paper 2019-52 Dmitry Matveev I show that maturity considerations affect the optimal conduct of monetary and fiscal policy during a period of government debt reduction. I consider a New Keynesian model and study a dynamic game of monetary and fiscal policy authorities without commitment, characterizing the incentives that drive the choice of interest rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E6, E62, E63 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Making It Real: Bringing Research Models into Central Bank Projections Staff discussion paper 2023-29 Marc-André Gosselin, Sharon Kozicki Macroeconomic projections and risk analyses play an important role in guiding monetary policy decisions. Models are integral to this process. This paper discusses how the Bank of Canada brings research models and lessons learned from those models into the central bank projection environment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C51, E, E3, E37, E4, E47, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
A Bitcoin Standard: Lessons from the Gold Standard Staff working paper 2016-14 Warren E. Weber This paper imagines a world in which countries are on the Bitcoin standard, a monetary system in which all media of exchange are Bitcoin or are backed by it. The paper explores the similarities and differences between the Bitcoin standard and the gold standard and describes the media of exchange that would exist under the Bitcoin standard. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
The Macroeconomic Implications of Coholding Staff working paper 2024-16 Michael Boutros, Andrej Mijakovic Coholder households simultaneously carry high-cost credit card debt and low-yield cash. We study the implications of this behavior for fiscal and monetary policy, finding that coholder households have smaller consumption responses in the short run but larger responses in the long run. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E44, E6, E62, G, G5, G51 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Volatility Risk and Economic Welfare Staff working paper 2017-20 Shaofeng Xu This paper examines the effects of time-varying volatility on welfare. I construct a tractable endogenous growth model with recursive preferences, stochastic volatility, and capital adjustment costs. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
The Size and Destination of China’s Portfolio Outflows Staff discussion paper 2018-11 Rose Cunningham, Eden Hatzvi, Kun Mo The size of China’s financial system raises the possibility that the liberalization of its capital account could have a large effect on the global financial system. This paper provides a counterfactual scenario analysis that estimates what the size and direction of China’s overseas portfolio investments would have been in 2015 if China had had no restrictions on these outflows. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, F, F2, F21, F3, F32, G, G1, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Market Concentration and Uniform Pricing: Evidence from Bank Mergers Staff working paper 2021-9 João Granja, Nuno Paixão We show that US banks price deposits almost uniformly across their branches and that this pricing practice is more important than increases in local market concentration in explaining the deposit rate dynamics following bank mergers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, G, G2, G20, G21, G28, G3, G34, L, L1, L11 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
Starting from a Blank Page? Semantic Similarity in Central Bank Communication and Market Volatility Staff working paper 2016-37 Michael Ehrmann, Jonathan Talmi Press releases announcing and explaining monetary policy decisions play a critical role in the communication strategy of central banks. Because of their market-moving potential, it is particularly important how they are drafted. Often, central banks start from the previous statement and update the earlier text with only small changes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
February 10, 2015 Minding the Labour Gap Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Ottawa Economics Association Ottawa, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins discusses the state of the labour market, the impact of lower oil prices on Canada’s economic outlook and the importance of both for monetary policy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks