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3035 Results

On the Value of Virtual Currencies

Staff Working Paper 2016-42 Wilko Bolt, Maarten van Oordt
This paper develops an economic framework to analyze the exchange rate of virtual currency. Three components are important: first, the current use of virtual currency to make payments; second, the decision of forward-looking investors to buy virtual currency (thereby effectively regulating its supply); and third, the elements that jointly drive future consumer adoption and merchant acceptance of virtual currency.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Digital currencies and fintech, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E51, F, F3, F31, G, G1

A Note on Contestability in the Canadian Banking Industry

Staff Discussion Paper 2007-7 Jason Allen, Ying Liu
The authors examine the degree of contestability in the Canadian banking system using the H-statistic proposed by Panzar and Rosse (1987) and modified by Bikker, Spierdijk, and Finnie (2006). A modification is necessary because the standard approach of controlling for size using total assets leads to an upward bias in the H-statistic. The authors propose […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, L, L1, L11

Heterogeneous Beliefs and Housing-Market Boom-Bust Cycles in a Small Open Economy

Staff Working Paper 2009-15 Hajime Tomura
This paper introduces heterogeneous beliefs among households in a small open economy model for the Canadian economy. The model suggests that simultaneous boom-bust cycles in house prices, output, investment, consumption and hours worked emerge when credit-constrained mortgage borrowers expect that future house prices will rise and this expectation is neither shared by savers nor realized ex-post.

Evaluating Forecasts from Factor Models for Canadian GDP Growth and Core Inflation

Staff Working Paper 2007-8 Frédérick Demers, Calista Cheung
This paper evaluates the performance of static and dynamic factor models for forecasting Canadian real output growth and core inflation on a quarterly basis. We extract the common component from a large number of macroeconomic indicators, and use the estimates to compute out-of-sample forecasts under a recursive and a rolling scheme with different window sizes.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E37

What Are the Macroeconomic Effects of High-Frequency Uncertainty Shocks

Staff Working Paper 2016-25 Laurent Ferrara, Pierre Guérin
This paper evaluates the effects of high-frequency uncertainty shocks on a set of low-frequency macroeconomic variables that are representative of the U.S. economy. Rather than estimating models at the same common low-frequency, we use recently developed econometric models, which allows us to deal with data of different sampling frequencies.
October 18, 2005

What Drives Movements in Exchange Rates?

Understanding what causes the exchange rate to move has been on ongoing challenge for economists. Despite extensive research, traditional macro models of exchange rate determination—with the exception of the Bank of Canada's exchange rate equation—have typically not fared well, motivating economists to explore new ways to model exchange rate movements that incorporate more complex and realistic settings. Within the context of the sharp appreciation of the Canadian dollar in 2003 and 2004, Bailliu and King review the macroeconomic models of exchange rates, as well as the micro-structure studies that highlight the importance of trading mechanisms, information asymmetry, and investor heterogeneity for explaining short-term dynamics in exchange rates. In addition to summarizing the current state of knowledge, they highlight recent advances and identify promising alternative approaches.

Financial Crisis Resolution

Staff Working Paper 2012-42 Josef Schroth
This paper studies a dynamic version of the Holmstrom-Tirole model of intermediated finance. I show that competitive equilibria are not constrained efficient when the economy experiences a financial crisis. A pecuniary externality entails that banks’ desire to accumulate capital over time aggravates the scarcity of informed capital during the financial crisis.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): D, D5, D53, E, E6, E60, G, G0, G01, G1, G10, G18
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