August 18, 2011 Bank Balance Sheets, Deleveraging and the Transmission Mechanism Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2011 Césaire Meh The author investigates the influence of bank capital on economic activity, using a macroeconomic model that incorporates an explicit role for financial intermediation. The analysis focuses on the role of a “bank-capital channel” in propagating and amplifying monetary policy actions and other shocks. The question of whether weaker bank balance sheets make the economy more vulnerable to adverse shocks is examined, together with the impact of initiatives, such as countercyclical capital buffers, on the transmission of monetary policy and other shocks to the real economy. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
Beyond the averages: Measuring underlying wage growth using Labour Force Survey microdata Staff analytical note 2024-23 Fares Bounajm, Tessa Devakos, Gabriela Galassi When it comes to understanding the influence of labour costs on inflation, average wage growth is a misleading indicator because it is affected by composition effects. We propose an alternative measure that corrects for these effects by using microdata from the Labour Force Survey. Our new measure has many desirable properties, including reduced volatility and a better relationship with labour market fundamentals. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): C, C3, C31, J, J2, J21, J3, J30, J31, J8, J82 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Starting from a Blank Page? Semantic Similarity in Central Bank Communication and Market Volatility Staff working paper 2016-37 Michael Ehrmann, Jonathan Talmi Press releases announcing and explaining monetary policy decisions play a critical role in the communication strategy of central banks. Because of their market-moving potential, it is particularly important how they are drafted. Often, central banks start from the previous statement and update the earlier text with only small changes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
The Cost of the Government Bond Buyback and Switch Programs in Canada Staff analytical note 2018-41 Bo Young Chang, Jun Yang, Parker Liu This note examines the costs of the Government of Canada bond buyback and switch programs between 1998 and 2016. Our analysis indicates that the auction design of the buyback program was effective in retiring government debt with minimal costs resulting from bid shading in auctions and price impact. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): D, D4, D44 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market functioning
The Welfare Effects of Protection: A General Equilibrium Analysis of Canada’s National Policy Staff working paper 2017-18 Patrick Alexander, Ian Keay In this paper, we study the impact of Canada’s adoption of protectionist trade policy in 1879 on Canadian welfare. Under the National Policy the Canadian average weighted tariff increased from 14% to 21%. The conventional view is that this was a distortionary policy that negatively affected Canadian welfare. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, F14, F4, F42, F6, F60, N, N7, N71 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
The Distributional Effects of Conventional Monetary Policy and Quantitative Easing: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model Staff working paper 2019-6 Stefan Hohberger, Romanos Priftis, Lukas Vogel This paper compares the distributional effects of conventional monetary policy and quantitative easing (QE) within an estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Global Demand and Supply Sentiment: Evidence from Earnings Calls Staff working paper 2023-37 Temel Taskin, Franz Ulrich Ruch This paper quantifies global demand, supply and uncertainty shocks and compares two major global recessions: the 2008–09 Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. We use two alternate approaches to decompose economic shocks: text mining techniques on earnings calls transcripts and a structural Bayesian vector autoregression model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, E, E3, E32, G, G1, G10 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Producer Heterogeneity, Value-Added, and International Trade Staff working paper 2016-54 Patrick Alexander Standard new trade models depict producers as heterogeneous in total factor productivity. In this paper, I adapt the Eaton and Kortum (2002) model of international trade to incorporate tradable intermediate goods and producer heterogeneity in value-added productivity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F12, F14 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Assessing the effects of higher immigration on the Canadian economy and inflation Staff analytical note 2023-17 Julien Champagne, Erik Ens, Xing Guo, Olena Kostyshyna, Alexander Lam, Corinne Luu, Sarah Miller, Patrick Sabourin, Joshua Slive, Temel Taskin, Jaime Trujillo, Shu Lin Wee We assess the complex macroeconomic implications of Canada’s recent population increases. We find that newcomers significantly boost the non-inflationary, potential growth of the economy, but existing imbalances in the housing sector may be exacerbated. Greater housing supply is needed to complement the long-term economic benefits of population growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): A, A1, A10, E, E2, E20, E3, E31, J, J1, J11, J15 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply