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2099 Results

Financial Crisis Interventions

Staff working paper 2016-29 Josef Schroth
This paper develops a model of an economy where bank credit supports both productive investment and individual consumption smoothing in the face of idiosyncratic income risk. Bank credit is constrained by bank equity capital.

Starting from a Blank Page? Semantic Similarity in Central Bank Communication and Market Volatility

Staff working paper 2016-37 Michael Ehrmann, Jonathan Talmi
Press releases announcing and explaining monetary policy decisions play a critical role in the communication strategy of central banks. Because of their market-moving potential, it is particularly important how they are drafted. Often, central banks start from the previous statement and update the earlier text with only small changes.

Beyond the averages: Measuring underlying wage growth using Labour Force Survey microdata

Staff analytical note 2024-23 Fares Bounajm, Tessa Devakos, Gabriela Galassi
When it comes to understanding the influence of labour costs on inflation, average wage growth is a misleading indicator because it is affected by composition effects. We propose an alternative measure that corrects for these effects by using microdata from the Labour Force Survey. Our new measure has many desirable properties, including reduced volatility and a better relationship with labour market fundamentals.

Can Media and Text Analytics Provide Insights into Labour Market Conditions in China?

The official Chinese labour market indicators have been seen as problematic, given their small cyclical movement and their only-partial capture of the labour force. In our paper, we build a monthly Chinese labour market conditions index (LMCI) using text analytics applied to mainland Chinese-language newspapers over the period from 2003 to 2017.

Household Heterogeneity and the Performance of Monetary Policy Frameworks

Staff working paper 2022-12 Edouard Djeutem, Mario He, Abeer Reza, Yang Zhang
Consumption inequality and a low interest rate environment are two important trends in today’s economy. But the implications they may have—and how those implications interact—within different monetary policy frameworks are not well understood. We study the ranking of alternative frameworks that take these trends into account.
June 16, 2006

Global Imbalances—Just How Dangerous?

The combination of rising current account surpluses in Asia and a growing current account deficit in the United States has raised concerns that the resulting imbalances pose a threat to the world economy, especially if they are reversed in a disorderly manner. Some experts believe that normal market forces will resolve these imbalances over time; others argue that policy-makers should facilitate the adjustment with policies that curb domestic demand in deficit countries and stimulate it in surplus countries. Little and Lafrance provide a guide to the major issues and controversies involved in the debate.

The Size and Destination of China’s Portfolio Outflows

Staff discussion paper 2018-11 Rose Cunningham, Eden Hatzvi, Kun Mo
The size of China’s financial system raises the possibility that the liberalization of its capital account could have a large effect on the global financial system. This paper provides a counterfactual scenario analysis that estimates what the size and direction of China’s overseas portfolio investments would have been in 2015 if China had had no restrictions on these outflows.

The Distributional Effects of Conventional Monetary Policy and Quantitative Easing: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model

Staff working paper 2019-6 Stefan Hohberger, Romanos Priftis, Lukas Vogel
This paper compares the distributional effects of conventional monetary policy and quantitative easing (QE) within an estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area.
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