Producer Heterogeneity, Value-Added, and International Trade Staff working paper 2016-54 Patrick Alexander Standard new trade models depict producers as heterogeneous in total factor productivity. In this paper, I adapt the Eaton and Kortum (2002) model of international trade to incorporate tradable intermediate goods and producer heterogeneity in value-added productivity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F12, F14 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
A Bitcoin Standard: Lessons from the Gold Standard Staff working paper 2016-14 Warren E. Weber This paper imagines a world in which countries are on the Bitcoin standard, a monetary system in which all media of exchange are Bitcoin or are backed by it. The paper explores the similarities and differences between the Bitcoin standard and the gold standard and describes the media of exchange that would exist under the Bitcoin standard. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
Assessing the effects of higher immigration on the Canadian economy and inflation Staff analytical note 2023-17 Julien Champagne, Erik Ens, Xing Guo, Olena Kostyshyna, Alexander Lam, Corinne Luu, Sarah Miller, Patrick Sabourin, Joshua Slive, Temel Taskin, Jaime Trujillo, Shu Lin Wee We assess the complex macroeconomic implications of Canada’s recent population increases. We find that newcomers significantly boost the non-inflationary, potential growth of the economy, but existing imbalances in the housing sector may be exacerbated. Greater housing supply is needed to complement the long-term economic benefits of population growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): A, A1, A10, E, E2, E20, E3, E31, J, J1, J11, J15 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
The Macroeconomic Effects of Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model Staff working paper 2018-11 Stefan Hohberger, Romanos Priftis, Lukas Vogel This paper estimates an open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with Bayesian techniques to analyse the macroeconomic effects of the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) quantitative easing (QE) programme. Using data on government debt stocks and yields across maturities, we identify the parameter governing portfolio adjustment in the private sector. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Starting from a Blank Page? Semantic Similarity in Central Bank Communication and Market Volatility Staff working paper 2016-37 Michael Ehrmann, Jonathan Talmi Press releases announcing and explaining monetary policy decisions play a critical role in the communication strategy of central banks. Because of their market-moving potential, it is particularly important how they are drafted. Often, central banks start from the previous statement and update the earlier text with only small changes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Market Concentration and Uniform Pricing: Evidence from Bank Mergers Staff working paper 2021-9 João Granja, Nuno Paixão We show that US banks price deposits almost uniformly across their branches and that this pricing practice is more important than increases in local market concentration in explaining the deposit rate dynamics following bank mergers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, G, G2, G20, G21, G28, G3, G34, L, L1, L11 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
Beyond the averages: Measuring underlying wage growth using Labour Force Survey microdata Staff analytical note 2024-23 Fares Bounajm, Tessa Devakos, Gabriela Galassi When it comes to understanding the influence of labour costs on inflation, average wage growth is a misleading indicator because it is affected by composition effects. We propose an alternative measure that corrects for these effects by using microdata from the Labour Force Survey. Our new measure has many desirable properties, including reduced volatility and a better relationship with labour market fundamentals. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): C, C3, C31, J, J2, J21, J3, J30, J31, J8, J82 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
2018 Bitcoin Omnibus Survey: Awareness and Usage Staff discussion paper 2019-10 Christopher Henry, Kim Huynh, Gradon Nicholls, Mitchell Nicholson The Bank of Canada continues to use the Bitcoin Omnibus Survey (BTCOS) to monitor trends in Canadians’ awareness, ownership and use of Bitcoin. The most recent iteration was conducted in late 2018, following an 85 percent decline in the price of Bitcoin throughout the year. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, E, E4, O, O5, O51 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Digital assets and fintech
Estimating Systematic Risk Under Extremely Adverse Market Conditions Staff working paper 2016-22 Maarten van Oordt, Chen Zhou This paper considers the problem of estimating a linear model between two heavy-tailed variables if the explanatory variable has an extremely low (or high) value. We propose an estimator for the model coefficient by exploiting the tail dependence between the two variables and prove its asymptotic properties. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, G, G0, G01 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
The Size and Destination of China’s Portfolio Outflows Staff discussion paper 2018-11 Rose Cunningham, Eden Hatzvi, Kun Mo The size of China’s financial system raises the possibility that the liberalization of its capital account could have a large effect on the global financial system. This paper provides a counterfactual scenario analysis that estimates what the size and direction of China’s overseas portfolio investments would have been in 2015 if China had had no restrictions on these outflows. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, F, F2, F21, F3, F32, G, G1, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness