Assessing the effects of higher immigration on the Canadian economy and inflation Staff analytical note 2023-17 Julien Champagne, Erik Ens, Xing Guo, Olena Kostyshyna, Alexander Lam, Corinne Luu, Sarah Miller, Patrick Sabourin, Joshua Slive, Temel Taskin, Jaime Trujillo, Shu Lin Wee We assess the complex macroeconomic implications of Canada’s recent population increases. We find that newcomers significantly boost the non-inflationary, potential growth of the economy, but existing imbalances in the housing sector may be exacerbated. Greater housing supply is needed to complement the long-term economic benefits of population growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): A, A1, A10, E, E2, E20, E3, E31, J, J1, J11, J15 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
December 23, 2005 The Use of Microdata to Assess Risks in the Non-Financial Corporate Sector Financial System Review - December 2005 Meyer Aaron, Dylan Hogg Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Tariffs and the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Twitter Staff working paper 2021-36 Dmitry Matveev, Francisco Ruge-Murcia Do tariffs affect exchange rates? We look at President Trump’s tweets during talks on the North American Free Trade Agreement and find that anticipation of higher tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico led to an appreciation of the US dollar relative to Canadian and Mexican currency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, F3, F31 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Trade and Market Power in Product and Labor Markets Staff working paper 2021-17 Gaelan MacKenzie Trade liberalizations increase the sales and input purchases of productive firms relative to their less productive domestic competitors. This reallocation affects firms’ market power in their product and input markets. I quantify how the labour market power of employers affects the distribution and size of the gains from trade. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, D43, F, F1, F12, F6, J, L, L1, L13 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Time-Consistent Management of a Liquidity Trap with Government Debt Staff working paper 2018-38 Dmitry Matveev This paper studies optimal discretionary monetary and fiscal policy when the lower bound on nominal interest rates is occasionally binding in a model with nominal rigidities and long-term government debt. At the lower bound it is optimal for the government to temporarily reduce debt. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E6, E62, E63 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial system regulation and oversight, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Market Size and Entry in International Trade: Product Versus Firm Fixed Costs Staff working paper 2018-43 Walter Steingress This paper develops a theoretical framework to infer the nature of fixed costs from the relationship between entry patterns in international markets and destination market size. If fixed costs are at the firm level, firms take advantage of an intrafirm spillover by expanding firm-level product range (scope). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F12, F14, F2, F23 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
A Counterfactual Valuation of the Stock Index as a Predictor of Crashes Staff working paper 2017-38 Tom Roberts Stock market fundamentals would not seem to meaningfully predict returns over a shorter-term horizon—instead, I shift focus to severe downside risk (i.e., crashes). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G12, G17, G19 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk
Central Bank Digital Currency and Monetary Policy Staff working paper 2018-36 Mohammad Davoodalhosseini Many central banks are contemplating whether to issue central bank digital currency. This piece explores the implications as well as potential motivators of such a step. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E50 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
Measuring Limits of Arbitrage in Fixed-Income Markets Staff working paper 2017-44 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Guillaume Nolin We use relative value to measure limits to arbitrage in fixed-income markets. Relative value captures apparent deviations from no-arbitrage relationships. It is simple, intuitive and can be computed model-free for any bond. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Market functioning, Market structure
The MacroFinancial Risk Assessment Framework (MFRAF), Version 2.0 Technical report No. 111 Jose Fique This report provides a detailed technical description of the updated MacroFinancial Risk Assessment Framework (MFRAF), which replaces the version described in Gauthier, Souissi and Liu (2014) as the Bank of Canada’s stress-testing model for banks with a focus on domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs). Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports JEL Code(s): C, C7, C72, E, E5, E58, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight