Assessing global potential output growth: April 2026 Staff analytical paper 2026-20 Daniel de Munnik, Kristina Hess, Walter Muiruri, Tuuli McCully, Faiza Noor, Sabreena Obaid, Andrew Plummer, Louis Poirier, Abeer Reza, Jillian Schwartz We present the annual update of the Bank of Canada staff estimates for global potential output growth. These estimates served as key inputs to the analysis supporting the April 2026 Monetary Policy Report. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, F, F0, F1, O, O3, O33, O4 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
June 21, 2006 The Impact of Unanticipated Defaults in Canada’s Large Value Transfer System Financial System Review - June 2006 Darcey McVanel Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Fixed-income dealing and central bank interventions Staff analytical note 2022-9 David Cimon, Adrian Walton We summarize the theoretical model of central bank asset purchases developed in Cimon and Walton (2022). The model helps us understand how asset purchases ease pressures on investment dealers to restore market conditions in a crisis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G2, G20, L, L1, L10 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Estimating Systematic Risk Under Extremely Adverse Market Conditions Staff working paper 2016-22 Maarten van Oordt, Chen Zhou This paper considers the problem of estimating a linear model between two heavy-tailed variables if the explanatory variable has an extremely low (or high) value. We propose an estimator for the model coefficient by exploiting the tail dependence between the two variables and prove its asymptotic properties. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, G, G0, G01 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
Endogenous Credibility and Wage-Price Spirals Staff working paper 2024-14 Olena Kostyshyna, Tolga Özden, Yang Zhang We quantitively assess the risks of a wage-price spiral occurring in Canada over history. We find the risk of a wage-price spiral increases when the inflation expectations become unanchored and the credibility of central banks declines. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E0, E00, E4, E47, E7 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
The Distributional Effects of Conventional Monetary Policy and Quantitative Easing: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model Staff working paper 2019-6 Stefan Hohberger, Romanos Priftis, Lukas Vogel This paper compares the distributional effects of conventional monetary policy and quantitative easing (QE) within an estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Portfolio Rebalancing Channel and the Effects of Large-Scale Stock and Bond Purchases Staff working paper 2025-38 Sami Alpanda, Serdar Kabaca We quantify the effects of large-scale stock purchases by a central bank and compare these to bond purchases. We find that the central bank’s equity purchases would lower the risk and term premiums on stocks and long-term bonds, respectively, and thereby stimulate economic activity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
December 23, 2005 The Use of Microdata to Assess Risks in the Non-Financial Corporate Sector Financial System Review - December 2005 Meyer Aaron, Dylan Hogg Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty: Practice Versus Theory Staff discussion paper 2017-13 Rhys R. Mendes, Stephen Murchison, Carolyn A. Wilkins For central banks, conducting policy in an environment of uncertainty is a daily fact of life. This uncertainty can take many forms, ranging from incomplete knowledge of the correct economic model and data to future economic and geopolitical events whose precise magnitudes and effects cannot be known with certainty. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61, E65 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
June 23, 2005 Understanding the Benefits and Risks of Synthetic Collateralized Debt Obligations Financial System Review - June 2005 Jim Armstrong, John Kiff Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles