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3045 Results

Forecasting Core Inflation in Canada: Should We Forecast the Aggregate or the Components?

Staff Working Paper 2005-44 Frédérick Demers, Annie De Champlain
The authors investigate the behaviour of core inflation in Canada to analyze three key issues: (i) homogeneity in the response of various price indexes to demand or real exchange rate shocks relative to the response of aggregate core inflation; (ii) whether using disaggregate data helps to improve the forecast of core inflation; and (iii) whether using monthly data helps to improve quarterly forecasts.

Do Sunspots Matter? Evidence from an Experimental Study of Bank Runs

Staff Working Paper 2014-12 Jasmina Arifovic, Janet Hua Jiang
A "sunspot" is a variable that has no direct impact on the economy’s fundamental condition, such as preferences, endowments or technologies, but may nonetheless affect economic outcomes through the expectations channel as a coordination device. This paper investigates how people react to sunspots in the context of a bank-run game in a controlled laboratory environment.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C9, C91, C92, D, D8, D80, E, E5, E58, G, G2, G20
January 11, 2010

Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2009-2010

Winter 2009-2010
Causes and consequences of declining inflation persistence in Canada; the evolution of capital flows to emerging-market economies (EMEs) and the need for EMEs to implement policies that support capital flows; making bank notes accessible for Canadians living with blindness or low vision, sharing assessments of the suite of accessibility features on the current series of bank notes and plans for the next series.

A Model of Costly Capital Reallocation and Aggregate Productivity

Staff Working Paper 2008-38 Shutao Cao
The author studies the effects of capital reallocation (the flow of productive capital across firms and establishments mainly through changes in ownership) on aggregate labour productivity. Capital reallocation is an important activity in the United States: on average, its total value is 3–4 per cent of U.S. GDP.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, L, L1, L16

Semi-Structural Models for Inflation Forecasting

Staff Working Paper 2010-34 Maral Kichian, Rumler Fabio, Paul Corrigan
We propose alternative single-equation semi-structural models for forecasting inflation in Canada, whereby structural New Keynesian models are combined with time-series features in the data. Several marginal cost measures are used, including one that in addition to unit labour cost also integrates relative price shocks known to play an important role in open-economies.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C5, C53, E, E3, E31

Can the Common-Factor Hypothesis Explain the Observed Housing Wealth Effect?

Staff Working Paper 2016-62 Narayan Bulusu, Jefferson Duarte, Carles Vergara-Alert
The common-factor hypothesis is one possible explanation for the housing wealth effect. Under this hypothesis, house price appreciation is related to changes in consumption as long as the available proxies for the common driver of housing and non-housing demand are noisy and housing supply is not perfectly elastic.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Housing JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, R, R3, R31

Non-Linearities, Model Uncertainty, and Macro Stress Testing

Staff Working Paper 2008-30 Miroslav Misina, David Tessier
A distinguishing feature of macro stress testing exercises is the use of macroeconomic models in scenario design and implementation. It is widely agreed that scenarios should be based on "rare but plausible" events that have either resulted in vulnerabilities in the past or could do so in the future.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, G, G2, G21, G3, G33
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