June 23, 2005 Understanding the Benefits and Risks of Synthetic Collateralized Debt Obligations Financial System Review - June 2005 Jim Armstrong, John Kiff Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
August 18, 2011 Bank Balance Sheets, Deleveraging and the Transmission Mechanism Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2011 Césaire Meh The author investigates the influence of bank capital on economic activity, using a macroeconomic model that incorporates an explicit role for financial intermediation. The analysis focuses on the role of a “bank-capital channel” in propagating and amplifying monetary policy actions and other shocks. The question of whether weaker bank balance sheets make the economy more vulnerable to adverse shocks is examined, together with the impact of initiatives, such as countercyclical capital buffers, on the transmission of monetary policy and other shocks to the real economy. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
June 9, 2010 Crude Oil Futures: A Crystal Ball? Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2010 Ron Alquist, Elif Arbatli Based on recent research, this article discusses three ways that oil-futures prices can improve our understanding of current conditions and future prospects in the global market for crude oil. First, the response of the oil-futures curve can be used to identify the persistence of oil-price shocks and to obtain an indicator of the rate at which they will diminish. Second, the spread between the current futures price and the spot price of oil can be interpreted as an indicator of the precautionary demand for oil. Third, because oil-futures prices are volatile, forecasts of the future spot price of oil using futures prices should be supplemented with other information to improve their accuracy. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
June 25, 2005 Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2005 Cover page African Marriage Money The metal marriage currencies pictured on the cover are part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada. Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
What to Target? Insights from a Lab Experiment Staff working paper 2021-53 Isabelle Salle In a laboratory experiment, we ask participants to predict inflation using three different policy regimes: inflation targeting—with and without greater communication of the target—average inflation targeting and price level targeting. We use participants’ predictions to compare the level and stability of inflation under each regime. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E7 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
The Cost of the Government Bond Buyback and Switch Programs in Canada Staff analytical note 2018-41 Bo Young Chang, Jun Yang, Parker Liu This note examines the costs of the Government of Canada bond buyback and switch programs between 1998 and 2016. Our analysis indicates that the auction design of the buyback program was effective in retiring government debt with minimal costs resulting from bid shading in auctions and price impact. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): D, D4, D44 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market functioning
A Counterfactual Valuation of the Stock Index as a Predictor of Crashes Staff working paper 2017-38 Tom Roberts Stock market fundamentals would not seem to meaningfully predict returns over a shorter-term horizon—instead, I shift focus to severe downside risk (i.e., crashes). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G12, G17, G19 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk
January 25, 2012 The Provision of Central Bank Liquidity under Asymmetric Information Financial System Review - December 2007 James Chapman, Antoine Martin Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Central Bank Digital Currency and Monetary Policy Staff working paper 2018-36 Mohammad Davoodalhosseini Many central banks are contemplating whether to issue central bank digital currency. This piece explores the implications as well as potential motivators of such a step. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E50 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech