Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity, Inflation and Unemployment: New Evidence Using Micro‐Level Data Staff Analytical Note 2017-6 Dany Brouillette, Natalia Kyui Recent evidence suggests that the extent of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) in the Canadian labour market has risen following the 2008–09 recession (see Brouillette, Kostyshyna and Kyui 2016). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E31, J, J3, J30
Quantile VARs and Macroeconomic Risk Forecasting Staff Working Paper 2025-4 Stéphane Surprenant This paper provides an extensive evaluation of the performance of quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) to forecast macroeconomic risk. Generally, QVAR outperforms standard benchmark models. Moreover, QVAR and QVAR augmented with factors perform equally well. Both are adequate for modeling macroeconomic risks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37
November 24, 2004 Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2004 Cover page Bus Transportation Tokens and Tickets The pieces illustrated on the cover range in size from 12 mm to 38 mm in diameter or width. They form part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada. Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
The Transmission of World Shocks to Emerging-Market Countries: An Empirical Analysis Staff Working Paper 2004-44 Brigitte Desroches The first step in designing effective policies to stabilize an economy is to understand business cycles. No country is isolated from the world economy and external shocks are becoming increasingly important. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, International topics, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E30, E32, E6, E61, F, F0, F02
Overlooking the online world: Does mismeasurement of the digital economy explain the productivity slowdown? Staff Analytical Note 2021-10 Alejandra Bellatin, Stéphanie Houle Since the mid-2000s, labour productivity has slowed down in Canada despite enormous technological advances that were expected to improve it. This note investigates whether mismeasurement of the digital economy can explain this paradox. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E0, E01, L, L8, L86, O, O3, O33, O4, O5, O51
May 17, 2012 Understanding Systemic Risk in the Banking Sector: A MacroFinancial Risk Assessment Framework Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2012 Céline Gauthier, Moez Souissi The MacroFinancial Risk Assessment Framework (MFRAF) models the interconnections between liquidity and solvency in a financial system, with multiple institutions linked through an interbank network. The MFRAF integrates funding liquidity risk as an endogenous outcome of the interactions between solvency risk and the liquidity profiles of banks, which is a complementary approach to the new […] Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, G, G0, G01, G2, G21
Assembling a Real-Financial Micro-Dataset for Canadian Households Staff Working Paper 2010-6 Umar Faruqui The lack of consolidated Canadian micro data on household balance sheets and expenditures has been an important impediment to empirical research into real-financial linkages in the Canadian household sector. Our paper attempts to fill this data gap by merging household balance sheet data from the Canadian Financial Monitor survey with household expenditure data from the Survey of Household Spending. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): C, C8, C81, D, D1, D10
The Paul Storer Memorial Lecture—Cross-Border Trade Integration and Monetary Policy Staff Discussion Paper 2016-20 Stephen S. Poloz In this paper we explore the nexus between cross-border trade integration and monetary policy. We first review the evidence that trade liberalization has increased the degree of integration in North America and conclude that, while robust structural inferences remain elusive, there is sufficient supporting evidence for central banks to treat the issue seriously. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy, Trade integration JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37, E5, F, F1, F4, F41, F6
Do Sunspots Matter? Evidence from an Experimental Study of Bank Runs Staff Working Paper 2014-12 Jasmina Arifovic, Janet Hua Jiang A "sunspot" is a variable that has no direct impact on the economy’s fundamental condition, such as preferences, endowments or technologies, but may nonetheless affect economic outcomes through the expectations channel as a coordination device. This paper investigates how people react to sunspots in the context of a bank-run game in a controlled laboratory environment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C9, C91, C92, D, D8, D80, E, E5, E58, G, G2, G20
Forecasting GDP Growth Using Artificial Neural Networks Staff Working Paper 1999-3 Greg Tkacz, Sarah Hu Financial and monetary variables have long been known to contain useful leading information regarding economic activity. In this paper, the authors wish to determine whether the forecasting performance of such variables can be improved using neural network models. The main findings are that, at the 1-quarter forecasting horizon, neural networks yield no significant forecast improvements. […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): C, C4, C45, E, E3, E37, E4, E44