November 17, 2011 Modelling the Counterfeiting of Bank Notes: A Literature Review Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2011 Ben Fung, Enchuan Shao The objective of this article is to improve our understanding of counterfeiting and its policy implications by reviewing research in this area. There has been almost no empirical work on counterfeiting because of the limited availability of counterfeiting data and related statistics. The authors therefore focus on theoretical studies that directly model the behaviour of the relevant economic agents. They first establish some stylized facts about counterfeiting to provide a general understanding of the problem. They then briefly review several models of counterfeiting and summarize their relevant insights, focusing on the implications of the findings for the incentive to counterfeit, social welfare and anti-counterfeiting policies. The authors find that the policy implications of these studies support the Bank’s comprehensive anti-counterfeiting strategy. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
On the Tail Risk Premium in the Oil Market Staff working paper 2017-46 Reinhard Ellwanger This paper shows that changes in market participants’ fear of rare events implied by crude oil options contribute to oil price volatility and oil return predictability. Using 25 years of historical data, we document economically large tail risk premia that vary substantially over time and significantly forecast crude oil futures and spot returns. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C58, D, D8, D84, E, E4, E44, G, G1, G12, G13, Q, Q4, Q43 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Non-homothetic Preferences and the Demand Channel of Inflation Staff working paper 2025-30 Stephen Murchison An alternative to the standard CES aggregator, based on non-homothetic household preferences, is proposed. Specifically, the elasticity of substitution between goods declines during periods of strong per-capita consumption and vice versa, giving firms an incentive to adjust their desired markup in response to the state of demand. Empirical evidence favouring a direct role for per-capita consumption demand in inflation determination for Canada is presented. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E5, E52, Q, Q4, Q43, Q5, Q58 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures
Government Spending Multipliers Under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan Staff working paper 2017-40 Thuy Lan Nguyen, Dmitriy Sergeyev, Wataru Miyamoto Using a rich data set on government spending forecasts in Japan, we provide new evidence on the effects of unexpected changes in government spending when the nominal interest rate is near the zero lower bound (ZLB). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E5, E6, E62 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
January 25, 2012 The Provision of Central Bank Liquidity under Asymmetric Information Financial System Review - December 2007 James Chapman, Antoine Martin Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Tariffs and the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Twitter Staff working paper 2021-36 Dmitry Matveev, Francisco Ruge-Murcia Do tariffs affect exchange rates? We look at President Trump’s tweets during talks on the North American Free Trade Agreement and find that anticipation of higher tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico led to an appreciation of the US dollar relative to Canadian and Mexican currency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, F3, F31 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Trade and Market Power in Product and Labor Markets Staff working paper 2021-17 Gaelan MacKenzie Trade liberalizations increase the sales and input purchases of productive firms relative to their less productive domestic competitors. This reallocation affects firms’ market power in their product and input markets. I quantify how the labour market power of employers affects the distribution and size of the gains from trade. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, D43, F, F1, F12, F6, J, L, L1, L13 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Monetary Policy Under Okun’s Hypothesis Staff working paper 2026-3 Felipe Alves, Giovanni L. Violante The current monetary policy framework of the Fed intends to be more ’inclusive’ by running the economy hot for longer during expansions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E24, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52, J, J2, J24, J6, J64 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
November 18, 2010 Trends in Issuance: Underlying Factors and Implications Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2010 Jonathan Witmer Trends in debt issuance have changed significantly over the past decade, both prior to the financial crisis and subsequently. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles