Global Real Activity for Canadian Exports: GRACE Staff discussion paper 2017-2 André Binette, Tony Chernis, Daniel de Munnik Canadian exports have often disappointed since the Great Recession. The apparent disconnect between exports and the Bank of Canada’s current measure of foreign demand has created an impetus to search for an alternative. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F4, F43 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
The Neutral Rate in Canada: 2019 Update Staff analytical note 2019-11 Thomas J. Carter, Xin Scott Chen, José Dorich This note provides an update on Bank of Canada staff’s assessment of the Canadian neutral rate. The neutral rate is the policy rate needed to keep output at its potential level and inflation at target once the effects of any cyclical shocks have dissipated. This medium- to long-run concept serves as a benchmark for gauging the degree of monetary stimulus provided by a given policy setting. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Resilience of bank liquidity ratios in the presence of a central bank digital currency Staff analytical note 2022-5 Alissa Gorelova, Bena Lands, Maria teNyenhuis Could Canadian banks continue to meet their regulatory liquidity requirements after the introduction of a cash-like retail central bank digital currency (CBDC)? We conduct a hypothetical exercise to estimate how a CBDC could affect bank liquidity by increasing the run-off rates of transactional retail deposits under four increasingly severe scenarios. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): C, E, E4, G, G2, G21, O, O3, O33 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
August 27, 2020 The imperative for public engagement Remarks (delivered virtually) Tiff Macklem Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Jackson Hole Symposium Jackson Hole, Wyoming Governor Tiff Macklem talks about the need for the Bank to be clear, relatable and understandable when it communicates with the public. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economic models, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation targeting framework
January 25, 2005 Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2004-2005 Cover page Promissory Notes The notes featured on the cover measure approximately 21 cm x 8 cm and form part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada. Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
February 23, 2012 Medium-Term Fluctuations in Canadian House Prices Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2011-2012 Brian Peterson, Yi Zheng This article draws on theory and empirical evidence to examine a number of factors behind movements in Canadian house prices. It begins with an overview of the movements in house prices in Canada, using regional data to highlight factors that influence prices over the long run. It then turns to the central theme, that there are medium-run movements in prices not accounted for by long-run factors. Drawing on recent Bank of Canada research, the article discusses several factors behind these medium-run movements, including interest rates, expected price appreciation and market liquidity. The article concludes by identifying areas for future research that would further our understanding of fluctuations in house prices. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): R, R2, R21, R3, R31
Government Spending Multipliers Under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan Staff working paper 2017-40 Thuy Lan Nguyen, Dmitriy Sergeyev, Wataru Miyamoto Using a rich data set on government spending forecasts in Japan, we provide new evidence on the effects of unexpected changes in government spending when the nominal interest rate is near the zero lower bound (ZLB). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E5, E6, E62 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
I Am So Tired! I Don’t Know What to Do! Survey Fatigue and Financial Literacy: Results from a Randomized Experiment Staff working paper 2026-5 Anna Chernesky, Kim Huynh, Marcel Voia We use a randomization of question placement in surveys to estimate the causal effect on financial literacy results. We find that financial literacy questions placed at the end of a survey lead to a drop in financial literacy of 5%–15%. This research suggests a measure of financial literacy adapted for survey length. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C8, C81, C83, D, D1, D12, G, G5, G53 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures, Retail payments
BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: Methodology, Assumptions and Sources Technical report No. 117 David Beers, Elliot Jones, John Walsh Until recently, few efforts have been made to systematically measure and aggregate the nominal value of the different types of sovereign government debt in default. To help fill this gap, the Bank of Canada (BoC) developed a comprehensive database of sovereign defaults that is posted on its website and updated in partnership with the Bank of England (BoE). Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, G, G1, G10, G14, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk
April 8, 2009 Price-Level Targeting and Stabilization Policy: A Review Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2009 Steve Ambler This article reviews arguments in the literature for and against price-level targeting, focusing on its costs and benefits compared with inflation targeting. Benefits of price-level targeting include the effect on forward-looking inflation expectations; the ability to substitute for commitment by a central bank to its future policies; lessening forecast errors; better economic performance in response to real shocks because of lower wage indexation; and a reduction in the problem of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles