A Semiparametric Early Warning Model of Financial Stress Events Staff Working Paper 2013-13 Ian Christensen, Fuchun Li The authors use the Financial Stress Index created by the International Monetary Fund to predict the likelihood of financial stress events for five developed countries: Canada, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C14, G, G0, G01, G1, G17
Central Bank Digital Currencies and Banking: Literature Review and New Questions Staff Discussion Paper 2023-4 James Chapman, Jonathan Chiu, Mohammad Davoodalhosseini, Janet Hua Jiang, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Yu Zhu We review the nascent but fast-growing literature on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), focusing on their potential impacts on private banks. We evaluate these impacts in three areas of traditional banking: payments, lending and liquidity and maturity transformation. We also take a broader look at CBDCs and highlight two promising directions for future research. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E58, G, G0, G00, L, L0, L00
Price Level versus Inflation Targeting under Model Uncertainty Staff Working Paper 2008-15 Gino Cateau The purpose of this paper is to make a quantitative contribution to the inflation versus price level targeting debate. It considers a policy-maker that can set policy either through an inflation targeting rule or a price level targeting rule to minimize a quadratic loss function using the actual projection model of the Bank of Canada (ToTEM). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): D, D8, D81, E, E5, E58
Model Uncertainty and Wealth Distribution Staff Working Paper 2019-48 Edouard Djeutem, Shaofeng Xu This paper studies the implications of model uncertainty for wealth distribution in a tractable general equilibrium model with a borrowing constraint and robustness à la Hansen and Sargent (2008). Households confront model uncertainty about the process driving the return of the risky asset, and they choose robust policies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): D, D3, D8, E, E2
The Monetary Origins of Asymmetric Information in International Equity Markets Staff Working Paper 2004-47 Gregory Bauer, Clara Vega Existing studies using low-frequency data show that macroeconomic shocks contribute little to international stock market covariation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, International topics, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): F, F3, F30, G, G1, G12, G14, G15
Is anyone surprised? The high-frequency impact of US and domestic macroeconomic data announcements on Canadian asset prices Staff Analytical Note 2025-10 Blake DeBruin Martos, Rodrigo Sekkel, Henry Stern, Xu Zhang Using almost two decades of detailed high-frequency data, we show how Canadian interest rates, the CAD/USD spot exchange rate, and stock market returns react to both US and domestic macro announcements. We find that Canadian macroeconomic announcements invoke greater responses in short-term yields, whereas US macroeconomic announcements play an increasingly important role in the yield movements of longer-term assets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Exchange rates, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G15
September 18, 2008 Measuring Inflation: Methodology and Misconceptions Remarks John Murray Certified General Accountants of Ontario Toronto, Ontario These past few months have been busy for central bankers, to say the least, and the past few days are certainly no exception. While developments on Wall Street have garnered much attention, the cost of living has also been an issue for us all, whether we're buying gas at the pumps, booking an airline ticket, or just picking up a loaf of bread at the grocery store. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Financial Inclusion—What’s it Worth? Staff Working Paper 2016-30 Miguel Ampudia, Michael Ehrmann The paper studies the determinants of being unbanked in the euro area and the United States as well as the effects of being unbanked on wealth accumulation. Based on household-level data from The Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Survey and the U.S. Survey of Consumer Finances, it first documents that there are, respectively, 3.6 per cent and 7.5 per cent of unbanked households in the two economies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, G, G2, G21, G28
December 23, 2005 Financial System Review - December 2005 The financial system makes an important contribution to the welfare of all Canadians. The ability of households and firms to confidently hold and transfer financial assets is one of the fundamental building blocks of the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
December 14, 2009 Towards a Stress-Testing Model Consistent with the Macroprudential Approach Financial System Review - December 2009 Céline Gauthier, Alfred Lehar, Moez Souissi Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles