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2160 Results

On the Tail Risk Premium in the Oil Market

Staff working paper 2017-46 Reinhard Ellwanger
This paper shows that changes in market participants’ fear of rare events implied by crude oil options contribute to oil price volatility and oil return predictability. Using 25 years of historical data, we document economically large tail risk premia that vary substantially over time and significantly forecast crude oil futures and spot returns.

A Three‐Frequency Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian Provincial GDP Growth

Staff discussion paper 2017-8 Tony Chernis, Gabriella Velasco, Calista Cheung
This paper estimates a three‐frequency dynamic factor model for nowcasting Canadian provincial gross domestic product (GDP). Canadian provincial GDP is released by Statistics Canada on an annual basis only, with a significant lag (11 months).
April 8, 2009

Price-Level Targeting and Stabilization Policy: A Review

This article reviews arguments in the literature for and against price-level targeting, focusing on its costs and benefits compared with inflation targeting. Benefits of price-level targeting include the effect on forward-looking inflation expectations; the ability to substitute for commitment by a central bank to its future policies; lessening forecast errors; better economic performance in response to real shocks because of lower wage indexation; and a reduction in the problem of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates.
June 8, 2017

Canada’s International Investment Position: Benefits and Potential Vulnerabilities

While greater global financial integration is beneficial, the authors discuss how foreign capital inflows can also facilitate the buildup of domestic vulnerabilities and potentially lead to destabilizing reversals. Canada’s current international investment position is typical of advanced economies and will likely continue to act as an economic stabilizer. However, the growth and composition of Canada’s international investment position warrant continued monitoring.
Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles JEL Code(s): F, F2, F21, F3, F32, F34, F36, F4, F6

Canadian Bank Notes and Dominion Notes: Lessons for Digital Currencies

Staff working paper 2017-5 Ben Fung, Scott Hendry, Warren E. Weber
This paper studies the period in Canada when both private bank notes and government-issued notes (Dominion notes) were simultaneously in circulation. Because both of these notes shared many of the characteristics of today's digital currencies, the experience with these notes can be used to draw lessons about how digital currencies might perform.

Monetary Policy Under Okun’s Hypothesis

Staff working paper 2026-3 Felipe Alves, Giovanni L. Violante
The current monetary policy framework of the Fed intends to be more ’inclusive’ by running the economy hot for longer during expansions.

Exploring Wage Phillips Curves in Advanced Economies

Staff discussion paper 2019-8 Rose Cunningham, Vikram Rai, Kristina Hess
We investigate the extent to which excess supply (demand) in labour markets contributes to a lower (higher) growth rate of average nominal wages for workers. Using panel methods on data from 10 advanced economies for 1992–2018, we produce reduced-form estimates of a wage Phillips curve specification that is consistent with a New Keynesian framework.

Government Spending Multipliers Under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan

Staff working paper 2017-40 Thuy Lan Nguyen, Dmitriy Sergeyev, Wataru Miyamoto
Using a rich data set on government spending forecasts in Japan, we provide new evidence on the effects of unexpected changes in government spending when the nominal interest rate is near the zero lower bound (ZLB).
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