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2170 Results

On the Tail Risk Premium in the Oil Market

Staff working paper 2017-46 Reinhard Ellwanger
This paper shows that changes in market participants’ fear of rare events implied by crude oil options contribute to oil price volatility and oil return predictability. Using 25 years of historical data, we document economically large tail risk premia that vary substantially over time and significantly forecast crude oil futures and spot returns.

Monetary Policy Under Okun’s Hypothesis

Staff working paper 2026-3 Felipe Alves, Giovanni L. Violante
The current monetary policy framework of the Fed intends to be more ’inclusive’ by running the economy hot for longer during expansions.

Canadian Bank Notes and Dominion Notes: Lessons for Digital Currencies

Staff working paper 2017-5 Ben Fung, Scott Hendry, Warren E. Weber
This paper studies the period in Canada when both private bank notes and government-issued notes (Dominion notes) were simultaneously in circulation. Because both of these notes shared many of the characteristics of today's digital currencies, the experience with these notes can be used to draw lessons about how digital currencies might perform.

Household financial vulnerabilities and physical climate risks

Staff analytical note 2021-19 Thibaut Duprey, Colin Jones, Callie Symmers, Geneviève Vallée
Natural disasters occur more often than before, potentially exposing households to financial distress. We study the intersection between household financial vulnerabilities and severe weather events.

Exploring Wage Phillips Curves in Advanced Economies

Staff discussion paper 2019-8 Rose Cunningham, Vikram Rai, Kristina Hess
We investigate the extent to which excess supply (demand) in labour markets contributes to a lower (higher) growth rate of average nominal wages for workers. Using panel methods on data from 10 advanced economies for 1992–2018, we produce reduced-form estimates of a wage Phillips curve specification that is consistent with a New Keynesian framework.

Strategic Complementarities and Money Market Fund Liquidity Management

Staff working paper 2017-14 Jonathan Witmer
Following the financial crisis, there has been increased regulatory focus on the management of liquidity in mutual funds and, specifically, whether funds hold enough liquidity to guard against the potential for investor runs.
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