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2996 Results

June 2, 2006

Another Look at the Inflation-Target Horizon

The conduct of monetary policy within an inflation-targeting framework requires the establishment of an inflation-target horizon, which is the average time it takes inflation to return to the target. Policy-makers have an interest in communicating this horizon, since it is likely to help anchor inflation expectations. This article focuses on the determination of the appropriate policy horizon by reporting on two recent Bank of Canada studies. The evidence suggests that the current target horizon of six to eight quarters remains appropriate. It is important to note that the duration of the optimal inflation-target horizon varies widely, depending on the combination of shocks to the economy. In rare cases when the financial accelerator is triggered by a persistent shock, such as an asset-price bubble, it may be appropriate to take a longer view of the inflation-target horizon.

Evaluating Linear and Non-Linear Time-Varying Forecast-Combination Methods

Staff Working Paper 2001-12 Fuchun Li, Greg Tkacz
This paper evaluates linear and non-linear forecast-combination methods. Among the non-linear methods, we propose a nonparametric kernel-regression weighting approach that allows maximum flexibility of the weighting parameters.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C5, C53, E, E2, E27
June 18, 2008

House Prices and Consumer Spending

Flood, Morin, and Kolet examine the role of house prices in household consumption decisions. Considering a group of advanced economies, the authors find that the strength of the link between house prices and consumer spending depends on the institutional features of national mortgage markets.

International Business Cycles and Financial Frictions

Staff Working Paper 2012-19 Wen Yao
This paper builds a two-country DSGE model to study the quantitative impact of financial frictions on business cycle co-movements when investors have foreign asset exposure. The investor in each country holds capital in both countries and faces a leverage constraint on her debt.

Banks’ Financial Distress, Lending Supply and Consumption Expenditure

Staff Working Paper 2014-7 H. Evren Damar, Reint Gropp, Adi Mordel
The paper employs a unique identification strategy that links survey data on household consumption expenditure to bank-level data in order to estimate the effects of bank financial distress on consumer credit and consumption expenditures.

Evaluating Alternative Measures of the Real Effective Exchange Rate

Staff Working Paper 1998-20 Robert Lafrance, Patrick Osakwe, Pierre St-Amant
This paper discusses the merits and shortcomings of alternative price indices used in constructing real effective exchange rate indices and examines the effects of different weighting schemes. It also compares selected measures of the real effective exchange rate in terms of their ability to explain movements in Canadian net exports and real output. The paper […]

The BoC-BoE Sovereign Default Database Revisited: What’s New in 2018?

Staff Working Paper 2018-30 David Beers, Jamshid Mavalwalla
Until recently, there have been few efforts to systematically measure and aggregate the nominal value of the different types of sovereign government debt in default. To help fill this gap, the Bank of Canada’s Credit Rating Assessment Group (CRAG) has developed a comprehensive database of sovereign defaults posted on the Bank of Canada’s website that now is updated in partnership with the Bank of England.

IMF-Supported Adjustment Programs: Welfare Implications and the Catalytic Effect

Staff Working Paper 2007-22 Carlos De Resende
The author studies the welfare implications of adjustment programs supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He uses a model where an endogenous borrowing constraint, set up by international lenders who will never lend more than a debt ceiling, forces the borrowing economy to always choose repayment over default.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F32, F33, F34, F4, F41

Money Market Rates and Retail Interest Regulation in China: The Disconnect between Interbank and Retail Credit Conditions

Staff Working Paper 2013-20 Nathan Porter, TengTeng Xu
Interest rates in China are composed of a mix of both market-determined interest rates (interbank rates and bond yields), and regulated interest rates (retail lending and deposit rates), reflecting China’s gradual process of interest rate liberalization.
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