IMPACT: The Bank of Canada’s International Model for Projecting Activity Technical report No. 116 Patrick Blagrave, Claudia Godbout, Justin-Damien Guénette, René Lalonde, Nikita Perevalov We present the structure and features of the International Model for Projecting Activity (IMPACT), a global semi-structural model used to conduct projections and policy analysis at the Bank of Canada. Major blocks of the model are developed based on the rational error correction framework of Kozicki and Tinsley (1999), which allows the model to strike a balance between theoretical structure and empirical performance. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports JEL Code(s): C, C6, C68, E, E2, E27, E3, E37, F, F0, F01, F3, F32, F4, F47 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Prima: The Bank of Canada’s New Projection and Policy-Analysis Model—An Overview Staff analytical paper 2026-47 Donald Coletti, Martin Kuncl, Martin Harding, Dmitry Matveev, Tolga Özden, Yang Zhang Prima is the Bank of Canada’s new model for projection and policy analysis. It builds on the economic foundations of earlier Bank models, adding detail on how sectoral pressures affect production costs and their pass-through to consumer prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): C, C4, C43, C8, C82, E, E3, E30, E31, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
How Long Does It Take You to Pay? A Duration Study of Canadian Retail Transaction Payment Times Staff working paper 2018-46 Geneviève Vallée Using an exclusive data set of payment times for retail transactions made in Canada, I show that cash is the most time-efficient method of payment (MOP) when compared with payments by debit and credit cards. I model payment efficiency using Cox proportional hazard models, accounting for consumer choice of MOP. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C2, C25, C3, C36, C4, C41, D, D2, D23, E, E4, E41, E42 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Retail payments
Deriving Longer-Term Inflation Expectations and Inflation Risk Premium Measures for Canada Staff discussion paper 2024-9 Bruno Feunou, Zabi Tarshi We present two models for long-term inflation expectations and inflation risk premiums for Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, E, E4, E43, E47, G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
February 5, 2020 Our Economic Destiny: Written in R-stars? Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Economic Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins talks about how to navigate slow growth and discusses the types of policies that would help secure long-term prosperity. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economic models, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation targeting framework
December 13, 2021 Monetary Policy Framework Renewal (December 2021) Commentary and technical data relating to the 2021 renewal. Content Type(s): Background materials
On the Tail Risk Premium in the Oil Market Staff working paper 2017-46 Reinhard Ellwanger This paper shows that changes in market participants’ fear of rare events implied by crude oil options contribute to oil price volatility and oil return predictability. Using 25 years of historical data, we document economically large tail risk premia that vary substantially over time and significantly forecast crude oil futures and spot returns. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C58, D, D8, D84, E, E4, E44, G, G1, G12, G13, Q, Q4, Q43 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
February 2, 2012 Banking Crises and Contagion: Empirical Evidence Financial System Review - December 2002 Eric Santor Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
November 17, 2011 Modelling the Counterfeiting of Bank Notes: A Literature Review Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2011 Ben Fung, Enchuan Shao The objective of this article is to improve our understanding of counterfeiting and its policy implications by reviewing research in this area. There has been almost no empirical work on counterfeiting because of the limited availability of counterfeiting data and related statistics. The authors therefore focus on theoretical studies that directly model the behaviour of the relevant economic agents. They first establish some stylized facts about counterfeiting to provide a general understanding of the problem. They then briefly review several models of counterfeiting and summarize their relevant insights, focusing on the implications of the findings for the incentive to counterfeit, social welfare and anti-counterfeiting policies. The authors find that the policy implications of these studies support the Bank’s comprehensive anti-counterfeiting strategy. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
August 24, 2004 Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2004 Cover page Promissory Note, 1712 The note measures 28 cm x 16 cm and forms part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada. Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review