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2999 Results

Banks’ Financial Distress, Lending Supply and Consumption Expenditure

Staff Working Paper 2014-7 H. Evren Damar, Reint Gropp, Adi Mordel
The paper employs a unique identification strategy that links survey data on household consumption expenditure to bank-level data in order to estimate the effects of bank financial distress on consumer credit and consumption expenditures.

Money Market Rates and Retail Interest Regulation in China: The Disconnect between Interbank and Retail Credit Conditions

Staff Working Paper 2013-20 Nathan Porter, TengTeng Xu
Interest rates in China are composed of a mix of both market-determined interest rates (interbank rates and bond yields), and regulated interest rates (retail lending and deposit rates), reflecting China’s gradual process of interest rate liberalization.

IMF-Supported Adjustment Programs: Welfare Implications and the Catalytic Effect

Staff Working Paper 2007-22 Carlos De Resende
The author studies the welfare implications of adjustment programs supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He uses a model where an endogenous borrowing constraint, set up by international lenders who will never lend more than a debt ceiling, forces the borrowing economy to always choose repayment over default.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F32, F33, F34, F4, F41

Model Uncertainty and Wealth Distribution

Staff Working Paper 2019-48 Edouard Djeutem, Shaofeng Xu
This paper studies the implications of model uncertainty for wealth distribution in a tractable general equilibrium model with a borrowing constraint and robustness à la Hansen and Sargent (2008). Households confront model uncertainty about the process driving the return of the risky asset, and they choose robust policies.

On the Nature and the Stability of the Canadian Phillips Curve

Staff Working Paper 2001-4 Maral Kichian
This paper empirically determines why, during the 1990s, inflation in Canada was consistently more stable than predicted by the fixed-coefficients Phillips curve. A time-varying-coefficient model, where all the parameters adjust simultaneously, shows that the behaviour of expectations was probably a major contributing factor.

Noisy Monetary Policy

Staff Working Paper 2018-23 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Luca Gambetti
We introduce limited information in monetary policy. Agents receive signals from the central bank revealing new information (“news") about the future evolution of the policy rate before changes in the rate actually take place. However, the signal is disturbed by noise.

Forecasting with Many Models: Model Confidence Sets and Forecast Combination

Staff Working Paper 2013-11 Jon D. Samuels, Rodrigo Sekkel
A longstanding finding in the forecasting literature is that averaging forecasts from different models often improves upon forecasts based on a single model, with equal weight averaging working particularly well. This paper analyzes the effects of trimming the set of models prior to averaging.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53
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