What Can Earnings Calls Tell Us About the Output Gap and Inflation in Canada? Staff discussion paper 2023-13 Marc-André Gosselin, Temel Taskin We construct new indicators of demand and supply for the Canadian economy by using natural language processing techniques to analyze earnings calls of publicly listed firms. Our results indicate that the new indicators could help central banks identify inflationary pressures in real time. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C3, E, E3, E5 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
February 1, 2012 Managing Operational Risk in Clearing and Settlement Systems Financial System Review - June 2003 Kim McPhail Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Strategic Complementarities and Money Market Fund Liquidity Management Staff working paper 2017-14 Jonathan Witmer Following the financial crisis, there has been increased regulatory focus on the management of liquidity in mutual funds and, specifically, whether funds hold enough liquidity to guard against the potential for investor runs. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F3, F30, G, G0, G01, G1, G18, G2, G20 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2024 update Staff analytical note 2024-9 Frida Adjalala, Felipe Alves, Hélène Desgagnés, Wei Dong, Dmitry Matveev, Laure Simon We assess both the US and Canadian nominal neutral rates to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, somewhat higher than the range of 2.0% to 3.0% in 2023. The assessed range is back to the level it was at in April 2019. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
February 1, 2012 The Syndicated Loan Market: Developments in the North American Context Financial System Review - June 2003 Jim Armstrong Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Exploring Wage Phillips Curves in Advanced Economies Staff discussion paper 2019-8 Rose Cunningham, Vikram Rai, Kristina Hess We investigate the extent to which excess supply (demand) in labour markets contributes to a lower (higher) growth rate of average nominal wages for workers. Using panel methods on data from 10 advanced economies for 1992–2018, we produce reduced-form estimates of a wage Phillips curve specification that is consistent with a New Keynesian framework. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, E, E3, E31, E32 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
June 8, 2017 Canada’s International Investment Position: Benefits and Potential Vulnerabilities Financial System Review - June 2017 Gabriel Bruneau, Maxime Leboeuf, Guillaume Nolin While greater global financial integration is beneficial, the authors discuss how foreign capital inflows can also facilitate the buildup of domestic vulnerabilities and potentially lead to destabilizing reversals. Canada’s current international investment position is typical of advanced economies and will likely continue to act as an economic stabilizer. However, the growth and composition of Canada’s international investment position warrant continued monitoring. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles JEL Code(s): F, F2, F21, F3, F32, F34, F36, F4, F6
June 21, 2007 Financial System Review - June 2007 The Financial System Review is one vehicle that the Bank of Canada uses to contribute to the strength of the Canadian financial system. The Developments and Trends section of the Review aims to provide analysis and discussion of current developments and trends in the Canadian financial sector. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
Global Real Activity for Canadian Exports: GRACE Staff discussion paper 2017-2 André Binette, Tony Chernis, Daniel de Munnik Canadian exports have often disappointed since the Great Recession. The apparent disconnect between exports and the Bank of Canada’s current measure of foreign demand has created an impetus to search for an alternative. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F4, F43 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
A Three‐Frequency Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian Provincial GDP Growth Staff discussion paper 2017-8 Tony Chernis, Gabriella Velasco, Calista Cheung This paper estimates a three‐frequency dynamic factor model for nowcasting Canadian provincial gross domestic product (GDP). Canadian provincial GDP is released by Statistics Canada on an annual basis only, with a significant lag (11 months). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, E37, R, R1, R11 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting