National Saving–Investment Dynamics and International Capital Mobility Staff Working Paper 2004-14 Florian Pelgrin, Sebastian Schich The authors analyze the dynamics of national saving–investment relationships to determine the degree of international capital mobility. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, F, F3, F31
Evaluating Alternative Measures of the Real Effective Exchange Rate Staff Working Paper 1998-20 Robert Lafrance, Patrick Osakwe, Pierre St-Amant This paper discusses the merits and shortcomings of alternative price indices used in constructing real effective exchange rate indices and examines the effects of different weighting schemes. It also compares selected measures of the real effective exchange rate in terms of their ability to explain movements in Canadian net exports and real output. The paper […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers
The Welfare Implications of Fiscal Dominance Staff Working Paper 2008-28 Carlos De Resende, Nooman Rebei This paper studies the interdependence between fiscal and monetary policy in a DSGE model with sticky prices and non-zero trend inflation. We characterize the fiscal and monetary policies by a rule whereby a given fraction k of the government debt must be backed by the discounted value of current and future primary surpluses. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E4, E42, E5, E50, E6, E63
August 19, 2010 Conference Summary: New Frontiers in Monetary Policy Design Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2010 Robert Amano, Kevin Devereux, Rhys R. Mendes Although the current inflation-targeting regime has served Canadians well, sound public policy demands the continuous exploration of possible improvements in the monetary policy framework. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework
The BoC-BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s New in 2019? Staff Working Paper 2019-39 David Beers, Patrisha de Leon-Manlagnit Until recently, few efforts have been made to systematically measure and aggregate the nominal value of the different types of sovereign government debt in default. To help fill this gap, the Bank of Canada (BoC) developed a comprehensive database of sovereign defaults that is posted on its website and updated in partnership with the Bank of England (BoE). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Debt management, Development economics, Financial stability, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, G, G1, G10, G14, G15
Micro Foundations of Price-Setting Behaviour: Evidence from Canadian Firms Staff Working Paper 2007-31 Daniel de Munnik, Kuan Xu How do firms adjust prices in the marketplace? Do they tend to adjust prices infrequently in response to changes in market conditions? If so, why? These remain key questions in macroeconomics, particularly for central banks that work to keep inflation low and stable. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D4, D40, E, E3, E30, L, L1, L11
May 16, 2016 Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2016 This issue focuses on the upcoming renewal of Canada’s inflation-control target. Bank researchers discuss the estimate of the lower bound to policy interest rates in Canada. They also discuss downward nominal wage rigidity and whether its presence warrants considering a higher inflation target. The third article highlights the experience some international central banks have had with unconventional monetary policies. The final article describes monetary policy frameworks in 10 advanced economies. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
Estimating DSGE-Model-Consistent Trends for Use in Forecasting Staff Working Paper 2009-35 Jean-Philippe Cayen, Marc-André Gosselin, Sharon Kozicki The workhorse DSGE model used for monetary policy evaluation is designed to capture business cycle fluctuations in an optimization-based format. It is commonplace to log-linearize models and express them with variables in deviation-from-steady-state format. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E5, E52
Quantile VARs and Macroeconomic Risk Forecasting Staff Working Paper 2025-4 Stéphane Surprenant This paper provides an extensive evaluation of the performance of quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) to forecast macroeconomic risk. Generally, QVAR outperforms standard benchmark models. Moreover, QVAR and QVAR augmented with factors perform equally well. Both are adequate for modeling macroeconomic risks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37
Evaluating the portfolio balance effects of the Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program on the Canadian yield curve Staff Analytical Note 2024-22 Antonio Diez de los Rios The Bank of Canada’s Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program, launched in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, lowered the weighted average maturity of the Government of Canada’s debt by approximately 1.4 years. This in turn reduced Canadian 10-year and 5-year zero-coupon yields by 84 and 52 basis points, respectively. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, G, G1, G12, H, H6, H63