What Can Earnings Calls Tell Us About the Output Gap and Inflation in Canada? Staff discussion paper 2023-13 Marc-André Gosselin, Temel Taskin We construct new indicators of demand and supply for the Canadian economy by using natural language processing techniques to analyze earnings calls of publicly listed firms. Our results indicate that the new indicators could help central banks identify inflationary pressures in real time. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C3, E, E3, E5 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Does Unconventional Monetary and Fiscal Policy Contribute to the COVID Inflation Surge in the US? Staff working paper 2024-38 Jing Cynthia Wu, Yinxi Xie, Ji Zhang We assess whether unconventional monetary and fiscal policy implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. contribute to the 2021-2023 inflation surge through the lens of several different empirical methodologies and establish a null result. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E6, E63 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Financial Frictions, Durable Goods and Monetary Policy Staff working paper 2019-31 Ugochi Emenogu, Leo Michelis Financial frictions affect how much consumers spend on durable and non-durable goods. Borrowers can face both loan-to-value (LTV) constraints and payment-to-income (PTI) constraints. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
April 26, 2002 The Interaction Between Monetary and Fiscal Policies Lecture David Dodge School of Policy Studies Queen's University Kingston, Ontario Donald Gow had a great interest in public administration and in budgetary reform in the federal government.1 He was one in a long line of Queen's professors who have focused on various budgetary matters at the federal level. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Lectures
December 13, 2007 Central Bank Performance under Inflation Targeting Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2007-2008 Marc-André Gosselin Gosselin examines and reports on the various factors that contribute to successful inflation targeting. Using a panel of 21 inflation-targeting countries over the period 1990Q1-2007Q2, Gosselin finds that the ability of central banks to hit their targets varies considerably. Some of these differences can be explained by exchange rate fluctuations, fiscal deficits, and differences in financial development. Others are explained by differences in the targeting framework itself and the manner in which it is implemented. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
Security and convenience of a central bank digital currency Staff analytical note 2020-21 Charles M. Kahn, Francisco Rivadeneyra An anonymous token-based central bank digital currency (CBDC) would pose certain security risks to users. These risks arise from how balances are aggregated, from their transactional use and from the competition between suppliers of aggregation solutions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, G, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial system regulation and oversight, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
A New Measure of Monetary Policy Shocks Staff working paper 2021-29 Xu Zhang Combining various high frequency financial data with central bank projections, I construct a new measure of monetary policy shocks not predictable by the public information preceding a central bank’s announcements. I then study the causal effects of monetary policy on the macro economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, G, G0 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Drivers of Weak Wage Growth in Advanced Economies Staff analytical note 2019-3 Anne-Katherine Cormier, Michael Francis, Kristina Hess, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle Since the global financial crisis, advanced-economy wage growth has been generally low relative to past recoveries, especially after accounting for the evolution of labour market conditions over this period. This paper investigates a variety of potential explanations for this weakness, drawing on findings from the literature as well as analysis of recent labour market data in advanced economies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, F, F0, J, J3 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
June 21, 2006 Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2006 Cover page Irish Gun Money The coins pictured on the cover are part of the National Currency Collection of the Bank of Canada. Photography by Gord Carter Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
To Share or Not to Share? Uncovered Losses in a Derivatives Clearinghouse Staff working paper 2016-4 Radoslav Raykov This paper studies how the allocation of residual losses affects trading and welfare in a central counterparty. I compare loss sharing under two loss-allocation mechanisms – variation margin haircutting and cash calls – and study the privately and socially optimal degree of loss sharing. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G19, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures